JC / Railbird

#delmarI met Marc Subia today and he told me the story of his amazing autograph jacket. "It's my most prized possession." Marc started coming to Del Mar with his dad in the 1970s. It's his home track. And he's been collecting jockey autographs for decades ...Grand Jete keeping an eye on me as I take a picture of Rushing Fall's #BC17 garland. #thoroughbred #horseracing #delmarAnother #treasurefromthearchive — this UPI collage for Secretariat vs. Sham. #inthearchives #thoroughbred #horseracingThanks, Arlington. Let's do this again next year. #Million35That's a helmet. #BC16 #thoroughbred #horseracing #jockeysLady Eli on the muscle. #BC16 @santaanitapark #breederscup #thoroughbred #horseracing

Chrome Turns Right

https://twitter.com/ChampionsSeries/status/606440309107650560

California Chrome continued his prep for an anticipated start in the June 17 Prince of Wales’s Stakes, getting acquainted with the right-handed Ascot turf on Thursday. Frankie Dettori on how the colt handled the training session:

“We did seven furlongs,” Dettori said. “The whole idea, because he has been turning left all his life, was to get him at full-on speed round the turn to make sure he gets on his right lead.

“He was a bit surprised going into the turn. He didn’t know what was going on. Then he got onto his right lead, he learned very quickly and in the straight I asked him to quicken to make sure he knew that after the turn he was going to carry on.”

Here’s a photo of Chrome and workmate Aktabantay at the turn, and here he is in slo-mo, galloping past the finish line.

Despite saying that he expects the Horse of the Year to “be very competitive,” the rider will likely be on Western Hymn in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes.

Alan Sherman, in town to supervise for his father, trainer Art Sherman, wasn’t as positive (or diplomatic) about the American Horse of the Year’s chances:

“He’s running against the best turf horses in the world, so. Like I said, he’s a hard trier. If he’s not good enough, he’s not good enough.”

The elder Sherman is looking forward to Ascot for more than his horse — he’s hoping for an introduction to the Queen: “She loves California Chrome and the story behind him, so I’ve got a feeling we’ll get a chance to meet her.”

Chrome will return to the US after Ascot for planned starts in the Arlington Million, Jockey Club Gold Cup, and Breeders’ Cup (race to be determined).

6/7/15 Update: William Buick has picked up the ride on California Chrome. “They wanted one of the good English or European jockeys and William beat them in Dubai so they know him and he’s available,” said trainer Rae Guest, overseeing Chrome while he’s in Newmarket.

Buck Up

Shying from picking American Pharoah? Dick Jerardi understands (DRF+):

The near Triple Crown misses have collectively psyched us all out. I definitely include myself in that group.

When you see Smarty Jones run maybe the best race of his life and get beat, and you see Big Brown get eased, and you see California Chrome get stepped on at the start, get trapped on the rail and get beat, you would not be human if you did not at least consider the history that also includes Spectacular Bid getting a ridiculous ride, Silver Charm doing everything but win, and Real Quiet winning for all but the final stride.

For sure! But the Belmont Stakes has also been a great race for playing against the favorite in recent years. The last post-time favorite to win was Afleet Alex in 2005, and only short-priced Union Rags (the second favorite to 3-2 Dullahan) in 2012 disturbs the string of double-digits since:


Winning favorites are indicated by a gray background.

For that matter, Curlin in 2007 was the last favorite to finish second.

American Pharoah is 3-5 on the morning line for the Belmont Stakes, which drew a field of eight, and if the public sticks to its Triple Crown wagering ways, it’ll be as “incorrigibly optimistic” as ever about his chances.

Root for history, bet for cashing.

6/5/15 Addendum: More on playing against from Ted McClelland:

If you want to go for an even bigger payoff, spend $84 to box all the challengers in the exacta…. In Triple Crown attempts since 1987, when the exacta was introduced, that strategy would have cost $1,284 and returned $5,119 — a 299 percent return.

6/8/15 Update: American Pharoah’s win added to the chart above. He’s the first favorite to win since Afleet Alex. His win pay is the lowest this century. The betting public looks pretty smart this year.

The Contrarian

Steve Wolfson, Sr., son of Louis Wolfson, the owner of 1978 Triple Crown winner Affirmed, tells Peter Thomas Fornatale that when it comes to American Pharoah in the Belmont Stakes:

“For the sake of racing, I hope he loses,” Wolfson said. “We talked last year about how I root for all of these old streaks in sports to never be equaled — DiMaggio’s 56-game hitting streak, John Wooden’s great run of victories, Rod Laver’s Grand Slams — I believe that the fact it’s been so long since we’ve seen a Triple Crown is why all these people care.”

American Pharoah owner Ahmed Zayat wants the win, obviously:

“I want it for the fans,” he said. “They’ve been waiting for 37 years. The sport needs it. A sport without a star is not a sport. Imagine having basketball without Michael Jordan or LeBron [James]. I’m excited. I’m pumped.”

Hm … American racing isn’t exactly going without stars. Since 2009, we’ve had Rachel Alexandra (brilliant, and gamely campaigned), Zenyatta (whose mainstream crossover was the best since Barbaro, and without the tragic end), Wise Dan (beloved), and California Chrome (a star big enough that the racing programs of other countries want him). It’s probably better to think of Pharoah as a comet — win or lose on Saturday, he’ll be off the track by the end of the year, and possibly sooner. If he runs for the remainder of the season, he’ll likely have no more than another two or three starts — “limiting the possibility for large-scale marketing opportunities,” or for fans to get attached.

6/3/15 Addendum: Jerry Izenberg shares the sport needs a star perspective. “How can you have a major sport without a superstar?” So much emphasis gets placed on one horse becoming a name outside the game, and what that would mean for marketing and awareness. It’s wishful thinking.

Now, let’s swing back: “It is entirely plausible that a Triple Crown winner is the exact opposite of what horse racing ‘needs.’

6/4/15 Addendum: Well, Zayat found a large-scale marketing opportunity — ESPN reports that Monster (the energy drink) has signed on for American Pharoah’s Triple Crown run, in what is “believed to be one of the largest single-horse sponsorship deals in history.” (“$5-million initial ask,” Ed DeRosa tweeted, noting he didn’t know the final sum.) There’ll be no publicity shots of Pharoah enjoying a Monster — the drink is loaded with caffeine. “A racehorse promoting a stimulant,” wrote Pull the Pocket, “that’s like Amgen sponsoring a long distance bike race.” That’s racing!

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