Laurel joins the reduced-takeout revolution, at least for the summer, cutting takeout on all wagers to 10% for their upcoming 10-day meet. With an additional state-required 1.4% withheld, takeout is a mere 11.4% on everything — win, trifecta, pick six, etc. Payouts on exotics, which had a takeout of 25.75%, will be 20% greater than before. “It will be like having a built-in rebate benefiting the $2 bettor as well as the $2,000 bettor,” said Maryland Jockey Club president Lou Raffeto. Wow. Especially because, as Michael points out on Curb My Enthusiam, Laurel is Magna-owned. Could this be the start of something?
Ellis Park led the reduced-takeout charge with the opening of its meet on July 8, offering 4% takeout on their pick four wager, which has attracted bigger handle for that bet. During the meet’s first five days, Ellis’ pick four pool averaged $18,973. During the second (skipping over July 15, when racing was canceled due to weather), the pick four pool averaged $46,180 — a 143% increase. And check out the difference in payoffs (Ellis, PDF).
Posted by JC in Handicapping on 07/18/2007 @ 10:45 pm / Follow @railbird on Twitter
Cigar Mile winner Discreet Cat, found to have a throat abcess after his last place finish in the Dubai World Cup, is back on track. “He’s jogging sound and we’re real happy with him,” said Godolphin assistant trainer Rick Mettee. “He’ll probably start galloping by the time we get up to Saratoga” (DRF). No plans yet for Discreet Cat’s next start.
Posted by JC in Horses on 07/18/2007 @ 10:40 pm / Follow @railbird on Twitter
Del Mar opens Wednesday with a new Polytrack surface and reduced banking on the turns (DRF+) and cautious handicappers will watch intently the meet’s first days (North County Times) to see how the synthetic track plays. Almost certainly, the surface will evince qualities noted on other synthetics: It’ll be fairer, kinder to closers, crueler to speed. For those wondering how to handle this strange new world in which speed doesn’t always rule, Del Mar offers a James Quinn piece on Polytrack handicapping (PDF). I’m no Quinn, but here’s what I’ve noticed about synthetic surfaces:
– Fewer races are won wire-to-wire (handicapper Mike Maloney offers some interesting numbers about this in the Handicappers Expo panel on synthetics, now on DVD), but legitimate speed retains an advantage, especially in sprints. In one small test of Hollywood results I did, 26 of 262 starters in 36 races (all on the main track, all non-maidens) could be classified as “Early,” meaning their average position at first call was on the lead or less than one length off the lead. Of those, 10 won. That 28% win rate is 11% less than a similar sample from the previous year, but still a powerful number.
The key though is determining what’s legitimate speed — synthetics expose cheap speed for what it is, allowing horses coming from off the pace or far back to run their races. We call this “favoring” closers only because speed horses and speed-biased dirt tracks have become so dominant. We’re seeing a shift to a world of truer pace. Handicap through that lens on synthetics, rather than that of bias, and you’ll be rewarded.
– Class matters on synthetics. Horses must fit, and must be fit enough for, the level at which they’re starting. Horses running back to the same class level or dropping a bit run better than their odds, and this is especially true when going turf to synthetic.
– Pedigrees can offer clues to how horses will handle synthetic surfaces. For a long time, I paid little attention to breeding. Synthetics changed that, as it became apparent that the surface wasn’t turf or dirt and that there are sires whose offspring perform well specifically on the surfaces. Arlington Park handicapper Joe Kristufek has identified several sires with exceptional success on synthetic tracks: Belong To Me, Chester House, Chief Seattle, Honour and Glory, Skip Away, and Slew City Slew. In Excess, Lit de Justice, and Tribal Rule have also sired multiple synthetic surface winners.
Related: Hollywood’s first spring-summer meeting on Cushion Track ended a huge success: Handle broke records, attendance was up, and even field size increased, the track announced. Del Mar officials must be hoping they can report similar triumphs come September.
Contrary opinion: John Mucciolo probably won’t be playing Del Mar: “I have had enough! Average animals taking home the trophies in our biggest events, ridiculous results from day-to-day, top horses failing to produce on synthetic ovals, when will the madness stop?”
Posted by JC in Del Mar, Synthetic Surfaces on 07/17/2007 @ 7:45 pm / Follow @railbird on Twitter
