JC / Railbird

He Likes It

After the Kentucky Derby winner jogged on Tuesday:

[Exercise rider Willie] Delgado said California Chrome seemed to prefer the dirt at Pimlico to that at Churchill Downs. “Churchill wasn’t one of his favorite tracks,” he said. “He just tolerated it.”

California Chrome wasn’t drawing raves for the way he went over Churchill’s surface before the Derby — “not the prettiest mover,” observed Mike Welsch, “Jay Privman said he’s certainly looked better back west” — so it’s interesting to see him praised for how he’s handling Pimlico.

Apparently, he’s also feeling fresh (PDF):

California Chrome … didn’t seem to appreciate being shut down for the day after passing a “Sunrise at Old Hilltop” group near the wire after jogging an easy mile. “Settle down … settle down … settle down,” Delgado calmly asked of his charge as he began applying the brakes.

And holding his weight: Trainer Art Sherman estimates that California Chrome “has put on about 35 pounds since winning the Derby,” tweets Claire Novak.

It’s all looking good for Saturday …

5/15/14 Addendum: What’s this? Chrome coughs; his people say he’s fine.

Posted by JC in Racing on 05/14/2014 @ 9:00 am / Tagged California Chrome, Favorites, Pimlico, Preakness Stakes, Triple Crown / Follow @railbird on Twitter

Spot Players

Indulto on how his racing buddies bet now:

The difference is that my friends play five to 10 days a year compared to my 50 to 100. These days they’re into the entertainment and social aspect of the game with perhaps a slim possibility of making a score, even more than in staying in the black.

… they only participate when the best face the best.

They have expressed no interest in the majority of races they perceive to be less reliable; the contestants too frequently over-medicated to the detriment of horse, rider or bettor.

Sounds familiar to me, because it’s the way my own wagering shifted before I stopped betting entirely last December (for reasons that had to do with all the issues that might be lumped together as animal welfare).

Posted by JC in Racing on 05/12/2014 @ 7:40 am / Tagged Betting, Horseplayers / Follow @railbird on Twitter

Fresh

Trainer Art Sherman on California Chrome’s likely Preakness competition:

“You know, they’ve all gotten beat,” he said. “People are gonna have to realize [California Chrome] is coming off five victories straight and a lot of [these other] horses are still eligible for conditions. There are no bona fide stakes horses in there.

“If you’ve been in the game as long as I have, you’ve got to prove yourself. You’re not going to get away with an easy-go just because you’re fresh coming into this race. [Chrome] is a seasoned, veteran horse right now coming into these races and I think that’s going to be a big help for him.”

The Kentucky Derby winner and nine others are possible for next Saturday.

Posted by JC in Racing on 05/11/2014 @ 9:19 am / Tagged Art Sherman, Bayern, California Chrome, Preakness Stakes, Social Inclusion, Triple Crown / Follow @railbird on Twitter

Not So Classic

Byron Rogers in Thursday’s TDN (PDF):

Without milkshakes and steroids the horses that have been selected for and trained as “classic types” by bloodstock agents, owners and trainers are now exposed for the sprinters that they genetically are.

I speculated about something similar in 2013, after Oxbow won the Preakness Stakes in a slow time and Bill Oppenheim brought up the trend of declining Beyer speed figures in the spring classics. Commenting on the Belmont Stakes figure collapse that began with Da’Tara in 2008, I wrote:

[T]he data suggest that there may be additional factors at work, such as changing training practices and the elimination of routine steroid use.

Rogers reports data, in the form of a genetic study done by his pedigree consulting practice on 1500+ horses, that found “the North American breeding population has the second highest percentage of horses that have been genetically selected for sprinting,” and concludes that there’s no reversing that trend, which began decades ago, without “significant structural changes.” If that happened, in his view, the game likely wouldn’t see a renewed emphasis on breeding for distance expressed in speed figures for at least 15-20 years. That’s probably more time than interests the market.

For a sense of how much things have changed (beyond the classic races), consider these statistics tweeted by @o_crunk last fall (via Sid Fernando):

Percentage of US races longer than 1M on dirt and synth:
1991 – 19.91%
1996 – 16.78%
2001 – 15.57%
2006 – 14.31%
2011 – 13.46%

Percentage of US races on dirt and synth at 6F or less:
1991 – 54.24%
1996 – 51.30%
2001 – 50.31%
2006 – 50.58%
2011 – 49.71%

Percentage of US dirt and synth races at less than 6F:
1991 – 13.27%
1996 – 15.15%
2001 – 17.92%
2006 – 21.60%
2011 – 23.25%

So, shortening the Kentucky Derby to nine furlongs from 10, and the Belmont Stakes to 10 furlongs from 12, as Oppenheim suggests in his most recent column (PDF), would more closely align the classic races with the realities of contemporary American racing and breeding. Whether that’s a worthy goal or not, I’ll leave to breeders and pedigree experts to debate.

Posted by JC in Racing on 05/10/2014 @ 9:49 am / Tagged Breeding, Race Distances, Speed Figures, Stamina, Statistics, Triple Crown / Follow @railbird on Twitter