Richard Migliore on the unique challenge of riding at Belmont Park:
“Heading into the second turn [when you’re used to a smaller oval], your hands and body language are trained to give the horse its cue,” said Migliore. “You open your knees and lower your seat [asking your horse to pick it up]. The problem is [at Belmont Park] you’re not three furlongs from home at that point. You’re probably four and a half furlongs from the wire. And once you give the horse that cue, you can’t take it back.”
There’s a great interactive graphic in Frank Angst’s Triple Crown opus that shows the differing proportions of the classic races (scroll to the midpoint): 14% of the Belmont Stakes happens in the stretch; 51% takes place in the turns. “I rode that track every day and you’re still tempted to let your horse move as you drop into that far turn,” Jerry Bailey told Angst. I wonder if the challenge for Victor Espinoza on June 7 will be not his own impulse to move with California Chrome then, but that other riders and horses surely will …
Posted by JC in Racing on 05/28/2014 @ 8:00 am / Tagged Belmont Stakes, Triple Crown / Follow @railbird on Twitter
With rider Gary Stevens up, Beholder worked a mile in 1:40.20 at Santa Anita on Monday in preparation for the June 7 Ogden Phipps at Belmont Park. Trainer Richard Mandella got her in “1:38 and change,” and apparently, thought she looked so good that he “did a giddy jig afterward,” reports Jay Privman. Marcie Heacox observed her recent afternoon schooling:
Beholder schooled in a new way — without a pony but with a saddle and regular exercise rider David Nuesch. Like previous schooling sessions, she wore a hood to block noise, and Racing Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella distracted her with peppermints. The team put the saddle on soon after she arrived at the paddock, and Nuesch mounted a few minutes before she exited, but she didn’t react to either change. She usually goes crazy at some point during schooling, but this time she behaved absolutely perfectly.
Sounds like she’s physically and mentally in the same shape as she was before winning last year’s Breeders’ Cup Distaff, and ready to meet Princess of Sylmar and Apple Blossom winner Close Hatches on their home turf.
Posted by JC in Racing on 05/27/2014 @ 6:00 am / Tagged Beholder, Belmont Park, Distaffers, Ogden Phipps Stakes, Richard Mandella, Santa Anita / Follow @railbird on Twitter
FiveThirtyEight analyzes the 36-year Triple Crown drought:
The last 12 horses to win the Derby and the Preakness have failed to complete the Triple Crown. With a historical success rate of 33 percent, the current 12-race slump is unlikely: The odds of it happening by chance are about 1 in 130 — nearly the same as the 2011 Atlanta Braves failing to make Major League Baseball’s playoffs with 18 games remaining and an 8.5-game lead for the wild card.
Here’s another way of putting it:
The odds of all 11 horses that raced in the Belmont losing at their race odds (by chance) are only 1 in 20,000 — about the odds of a random pitcher throwing a perfect game on a given night.
California Chrome is expected to face a full field in the Belmont Stakes. NYRA reported the historically daunting number of 11 on Saturday:
No horse has won the Triple Crown facing more than seven rivals, which Seattle Slew and Citation did in 1977 and 1948, respectively. Secretariat in 1973 and Affirmed, the most recent Triple Crown winner in 1978, both defeated four others.
With Intense Holiday now out after suffering a condylar fracture while working on Sunday (trainer Todd Pletcher said the injury wasn’t life-threatening and may not be career-ending), the list of possible challengers stands at 10, including Wicked Strong, Tonalist, Samraat, and Commissioner. All four also worked on Sunday: Videos of their works, plus one of California Chrome galloping, are available on the NYRA YouTube channel.
5/28/14 Update: Medal Count, eighth in the Kentucky Derby, has been declared possible for the Belmont. “[His] Derby was better than it looks,” said trainer Dale Romans, making a case for his colt as Triple Crown spoiler. “History shows it will be difficult for California Chrome.”
Posted by JC in Racing on 05/26/2014 @ 8:45 am / Tagged Belmont Stakes, California Chrome, Intense Holiday, Statistics, Triple Crown / Follow @railbird on Twitter
