JC / Railbird

American Pharoah

The Contrarian

Steve Wolfson, Sr., son of Louis Wolfson, the owner of 1978 Triple Crown winner Affirmed, tells Peter Thomas Fornatale that when it comes to American Pharoah in the Belmont Stakes:

“For the sake of racing, I hope he loses,” Wolfson said. “We talked last year about how I root for all of these old streaks in sports to never be equaled — DiMaggio’s 56-game hitting streak, John Wooden’s great run of victories, Rod Laver’s Grand Slams — I believe that the fact it’s been so long since we’ve seen a Triple Crown is why all these people care.”

American Pharoah owner Ahmed Zayat wants the win, obviously:

“I want it for the fans,” he said. “They’ve been waiting for 37 years. The sport needs it. A sport without a star is not a sport. Imagine having basketball without Michael Jordan or LeBron [James]. I’m excited. I’m pumped.”

Hm … American racing isn’t exactly going without stars. Since 2009, we’ve had Rachel Alexandra (brilliant, and gamely campaigned), Zenyatta (whose mainstream crossover was the best since Barbaro, and without the tragic end), Wise Dan (beloved), and California Chrome (a star big enough that the racing programs of other countries want him). It’s probably better to think of Pharoah as a comet — win or lose on Saturday, he’ll be off the track by the end of the year, and possibly sooner. If he runs for the remainder of the season, he’ll likely have no more than another two or three starts — “limiting the possibility for large-scale marketing opportunities,” or for fans to get attached.

6/3/15 Addendum: Jerry Izenberg shares the sport needs a star perspective. “How can you have a major sport without a superstar?” So much emphasis gets placed on one horse becoming a name outside the game, and what that would mean for marketing and awareness. It’s wishful thinking.

Now, let’s swing back: “It is entirely plausible that a Triple Crown winner is the exact opposite of what horse racing ‘needs.’

6/4/15 Addendum: Well, Zayat found a large-scale marketing opportunity — ESPN reports that Monster (the energy drink) has signed on for American Pharoah’s Triple Crown run, in what is “believed to be one of the largest single-horse sponsorship deals in history.” (“$5-million initial ask,” Ed DeRosa tweeted, noting he didn’t know the final sum.) There’ll be no publicity shots of Pharoah enjoying a Monster — the drink is loaded with caffeine. “A racehorse promoting a stimulant,” wrote Pull the Pocket, “that’s like Amgen sponsoring a long distance bike race.” That’s racing!

Spoiling

The field for the Belmont Stakes will be drawn on Wednesday, and challengers are lining up to spoil American Pharoah’s Triple Crown run.

“Weird things happen in the Belmont. Never duck one horse,” trainer Kenny McPeek texted the Churchill Downs press office on Friday, explaining why he was entering The Truth or Else. [10:10 AM Update: The Truth or Else is out of Saturday’s race with “filling in ankle.” The likely field is now nine eight.]

“I should probably run four,” said trainer Todd Pletcher, who plans to start three two — Carpe Diem Materiality and Madefromlucky. “[I]t’s a little bittersweet to have a horse in the race trying to beat [Pharoah],” said Materiality co-owner Gil Moutray. “We’re a spoiler and we like our horse.”

I think I have a live long shot, and I think people might feel the same way in another week,” said trainer Nick Zito of his contender, Frammento.

Preakness runner-up Tale of Verve will also take a shot.

American Pharoah worked on Monday, going five furlongs in 1:00.20 (splits from Churchill Downs: 13, 25, 36.60, 48.60). Mike Welsch, getting him in 1:00.08, praised the move: “AP seemingly getting stronger the further he went while giving the appearance that he was just galloping the entire way.”

The only thing that’s easy about the Belmont six days out is imagining what the Pharoah camp is thinking right now: Good luck, spoilers.

Video of Pharoah’s five-furlong breeze:

6/1/15 Update: Reaction to American Pharoah’s Monday appearance: “One trainer who detailed all the reasons American Pharoah would not win the Triple Crown before he breezed said simply afterward, ‘I take it all back.’ Others said his coat looked shiny and he appeared to be in great shape.”

6/2/15 Addendum: Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin hopes to hear boos after the Belmont Stakes because Frosted has won. “You know I’m a racing fan too, and if we lose, I hope he wins for the Triple Crown, but once they go in the starting gate it’s all about your team and your own horse. We’re trying to win the race.”

Easy Work for Pharoah


Credit: Churchill Downs/Reed Palmer Photography

American Pharoah breezed four furlongs in :48 flat at Churchill Downs on Tuesday morning, galloping out five furlongs in 1:00.40 and six furlongs in 1:13.20. Martin Garcia, who flew into Louisville along with trainer Bob Baffert for the work, could be heard shouting “Whoa” as he tried to pull up the Pioneerof the Nile colt on the backstretch. “I told Martin to just let him keep going,” said Baffert. “I really liked the way he went.” Here’s video of the work.

The trainer is happy with the dual-classic winner’s apparent energy level:

Baffert has brought three colts to this stage before, and he has said this is the point where one would usually start noticing any fatigue from the five-week Triple Crown grind.

Both Baffert’s body language and that of his Kentucky Derby and Preakness-winning charge Tuesday signaled that was not the case as American Pharoah cruised along under Garcia. The colt’s ears pricked the entire way around.

DRF clocker Mike Welsch gave the work a positive review (subscription only):

Even on the live feed provided by the track, it was clear to see American Pharoah looked every bit as good on Tuesday breezing over the Churchill Downs surface as he did in the final week leading up to his victory in the Kentucky Derby. With jockey Martin Garcia aboard, American Pharoah appeared a picture of health and was about as relaxed as could be as he made his way around to the half-mile pole alongside the pony …

American Pharoah just cruised through a steady series of 12-second eighth-mile splits before galloping out with a ton of energy around the turn. The gallop-out was perhaps the most impressive part …

American Pharoah is expected to work again on Sunday or Monday*, and then ship to New York on Tuesday for the Belmont Stakes. “We won’t do much with him up there,” said Baffert. “We’re just going to stay focused, keep the weight on him and keep him happy like the way he looks today.”

Dealing with the media at Belmont will be the trainer’s challenge next week: “I can’t go into Marshawn Lynch mode, but it’d be nice.”

It’s likely, if he wins the Triple Crown, that we’ll have seen the last of American Pharoah on track. His stud plans are set. Ed DeRosa breaks down the deal:

The deal started out at $8-million with another $7-million available if American Pharoah hit certain benchmarks like become champion two-year-old male and win certain races such as the Kentucky Derby. Presumably there are other incentives still in play such as win the Triple Crown, become champion three-year-old male, and earn Horse of the Year.

So, don’t fall in love.

And don’t get too excited if he’s on the cover of Sports Illustrated.

Experts estimate Pharoah would be at the high end of the market with a Triple Crown win: “[H]e’s likely to command approximately $100,000 per live foal.”

*2:30 PM Addendum: I had to look this up — it turns out, American Pharoah will be the first Triple Crown contender to go into the Belmont Stakes gate with two works between the Preakness and the Belmont since Funny Cide in 2003. Both California Chrome in 2014 and Big Brown in 2008 had one work.

Caution

Victor Espinoza sums up California Chrome’s 2014 Belmont Stakes effort:

“California Chrome was tired going into the race and his energy wasn’t quite what it was. Also, another horse stepped on his foot and that happens when a horse doesn’t have the energy it should. They do things in slow motion, and that’s what happened.”

The week before, California Chrome was “ready,” had “a perfect work,” was full of “tremendous energy,” and “seemed to have plenty left in the tank.” Pointing those quotes out is a reminder, mostly to myself, not to get too caught up in whatever hype there is about American Pharoah as he preps for the Belmont over the next two weeks. He “looks great,” but he also had to “recuperate” from winning the Preakness by walking for four days at Churchill, and his time exercising each morning is so far being reported in single-digit minutes.

Meanwhile, challengers such as Materiality, who skipped the Preakness, are training like the fresh horses they are. The son of 2005 Belmont Stakes winner Afleet Alex “solidified his status … as the major threat to American Pharoah,” working five furlongs in :59.87 at Belmont Park on Friday (video).

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