JC / Railbird

Belmont Stakes

Trainers: Who Gets the Distance?

TimeformUS takes a look at the distance race statistics of trainers with likely Belmont Stakes starters. Spoilers: The numbers at 12+ furlongs are small. Pletcher is solid. Mott knows what he’s doing. Clement has great turf form.

Posted in Racing on May 30, 2014 / Tagged Belmont Stakes, Bill Mott, Christophe Clement, Distance Races, Statistics, Todd Pletcher, Trainers

Unfamiliar Conditions

Richard Migliore on the unique challenge of riding at Belmont Park:

“Heading into the second turn [when you’re used to a smaller oval], your hands and body language are trained to give the horse its cue,” said Migliore. “You open your knees and lower your seat [asking your horse to pick it up]. The problem is [at Belmont Park] you’re not three furlongs from home at that point. You’re probably four and a half furlongs from the wire. And once you give the horse that cue, you can’t take it back.”

There’s a great interactive graphic in Frank Angst’s Triple Crown opus that shows the differing proportions of the classic races (scroll to the midpoint): 14% of the Belmont Stakes happens in the stretch; 51% takes place in the turns. “I rode that track every day and you’re still tempted to let your horse move as you drop into that far turn,” Jerry Bailey told Angst. I wonder if the challenge for Victor Espinoza on June 7 will be not his own impulse to move with California Chrome then, but that other riders and horses surely will …

Posted in Racing on May 28, 2014 / Tagged Belmont Stakes, Triple Crown

The Odds

FiveThirtyEight analyzes the 36-year Triple Crown drought:

The last 12 horses to win the Derby and the Preakness have failed to complete the Triple Crown. With a historical success rate of 33 percent, the current 12-race slump is unlikely: The odds of it happening by chance are about 1 in 130 — nearly the same as the 2011 Atlanta Braves failing to make Major League Baseball’s playoffs with 18 games remaining and an 8.5-game lead for the wild card.

Here’s another way of putting it:

The odds of all 11 horses that raced in the Belmont losing at their race odds (by chance) are only 1 in 20,000 — about the odds of a random pitcher throwing a perfect game on a given night.

California Chrome is expected to face a full field in the Belmont Stakes. NYRA reported the historically daunting number of 11 on Saturday:

No horse has won the Triple Crown facing more than seven rivals, which Seattle Slew and Citation did in 1977 and 1948, respectively. Secretariat in 1973 and Affirmed, the most recent Triple Crown winner in 1978, both defeated four others.

With Intense Holiday now out after suffering a condylar fracture while working on Sunday (trainer Todd Pletcher said the injury wasn’t life-threatening and may not be career-ending), the list of possible challengers stands at 10, including Wicked Strong, Tonalist, Samraat, and Commissioner. All four also worked on Sunday: Videos of their works, plus one of California Chrome galloping, are available on the NYRA YouTube channel.

5/28/14 Update: Medal Count, eighth in the Kentucky Derby, has been declared possible for the Belmont. “[His] Derby was better than it looks,” said trainer Dale Romans, making a case for his colt as Triple Crown spoiler. “History shows it will be difficult for California Chrome.”

Posted in Racing on May 26, 2014 / Tagged Belmont Stakes, California Chrome, Intense Holiday, Statistics, Triple Crown

Trips and Limits

Ed DeRosa on the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner:

California Chrome was much the best in both races because of what I prefer to call “clean trips” rather than “perfect trips.” Clean because he stayed out of trouble but not perfect because — especially in the Preakness — he was fighting every step of the race and turned back all challengers.

That’s a useful distinction, especially in looking ahead to the kind of trip California Chrome might get in the Belmont Stakes. It won’t be perfect, because no one is going to cede a step to the dual classic winner. But clean might not be enough. If Victor Espinoza thought he was a target in the Preakness and had to ride defensively — “I had to start early because the outside horse was pushing me,” said the jockey after the race, “I thought I had the perfect position, but when the outside horse attacked me, I had to open it up at that point” — the Belmont is going to ratchet that pressure up.

Sam Walker remains skeptical of California Chrome’s Triple Crown chances:

The main worry with California Chrome is that he had his stamina exposed in the Derby two weeks ago, where he finished relatively slowly off a steady pace, producing a weak final time (over 1m2f). The expectation is that he will have even less in reserve at the end of the Belmont (over 1m4f).

So stamina is a concern, but so too is class. Sure, the colt has an edge over his contemporaries but so did every other failed Belmont favourite.

When he was trouncing his opposition in the Golden State he looked set to take the world by storm. Back then the sky was the limit, but he hasn’t continued that progress in the Classics. Indeed, his RPRs have plateaued.

At Santa Anita he ran to 124, in the Derby it was 125 and in the Preakness 125 again. We appear to be close to finding the limit of his ability — and in the Derby I think we found the limit of his stamina.

Danza is out of the Belmont. He isn’t 100%; he’ll get some time off.

Posted in Racing on May 21, 2014 / Tagged Belmont Stakes, California Chrome, Danza, Preakness Stakes, Triple Crown