JC / Railbird

Betting

Breeders’ Cup Favorites

From Jeff Scott’s Breeders’ Cup tidbits:

Favorites won 32 percent (38-120) of races in the sample, a figure comparable to the record of racing favorites in general. The fact that BC fields are considerably larger than average may make the 32 percent strike rate higher than expected.

Favorites have had mixed success finishing in the money in the recent years. In 2012, favorites finished in the top three in five of six races on Friday, six of nine on Saturday. In 2011, three of six on Friday, four of nine on Saturday. In 2010, four of six on Friday, four of eight on Saturday.

10/26/13 Addendum: Breeders’ Cup contenders, by the numbers. “There are 121 group or graded stakes winners in the entries, including 71 winners of Group 1 or Grade 1 races.” And 74 of the 172 pre-entries won their last starts.

Posted in Racing on October 23, 2013 / Tagged Betting, Breeders' Cup, Churchill Downs, Favorites, Santa Anita, Statistics

Pletcher Baby ROI

Everyone knows that trainer Todd Pletcher is dominant is Saratoga juvenile races, but he’s profitable, too, in certain scenarios: His five-year win stat for first-time starters in dirt sprint maiden special weights is 32%, with an ROI of $2.57. In the same conditions, restricted to state-breds, he’s 46%, with an ROI of $3.25. “Perhaps the time to take down a Pletcher juvenile firster is in maiden special weight turf routes,” writes Dan Illman, who pulled the preceding numbers from DRF Formulator. Good luck getting a big price in any circumstance, though: The longest juvenile shot Pletcher has won at Saratoga with in the past five years is Interactif, in the 2009 With Anticipation. He was 16-1 at post time. The only other Pletcher winner with double-digit odds was Lawn Man, in a 2012 six-furlong MSW. He was 10-1 going into the gate.

Posted in Racing on July 18, 2013 / Tagged Betting, DRF Formulator, Handicapping, Juveniles, ROI, Saratoga, Statistics, Todd Pletcher

How Things Change

Jeremy Plonk has a realization re: how betting is changing at Woodbine:

It reminds me a lot of playing online through Xpressbet and other ADW outlets. We trust ourselves and trust the technology every single day we play. We just don’t typically do it at the racetrack, because we’re often too stuck on tradition to realize how society has changed.

Journalism changes, too: Steven Crist on 35 years at Saratoga.

Posted in Racing on July 12, 2013 / Tagged Betting, Media, Portabubble, Press Box, Saratoga, Technology, Woodbine