Beyer Speed Figures
In the Fractions
Handicapper Brad Thomas critiques the 2013 Whitney Handicap results:
“to any developing 3YO still ambulatory late in the year and to Royal Delta …“
Watching Cross Traffic and every other contender but Successful Dan drift, list, and stagger across the wire (replay), it’s hard to argue otherwise.
The DRF Formulator Whitney fractions:
Cross Traffic was given a Beyer speed figure of 108 for his Whitney win.
(Thomas tweets via @superterrific.)
Glittery
A big Beyer speed figure of 116 for Verrazano’s Haskell win*, which is second only to Game on Dude’s 117 for the Santa Anita Handicap, ties the Dude’s 116 for the San Antonio, and tops Fort Larned’s 115 for the Stephen Foster this year. If all three keep running like that, it’ll be a great Breeders’ Cup Classic. But what to make of Verrazano? He’s 6-for-7 in his career now, his 14th-place finish in the Kentucky Derby his sole loss (and the sloppy track gives him an excuse there), and he was the one Haskell starter running in the stretch:
No wonder he was able to open up 9 3/4 lengths over Power Broker — both the second- and third-place finishers were running a :27+ quarter. Verrazano was the only one coming in under :26 (watch the replay). In that way, the Haskell looks to me a bit like the Wood Memorial: it’s hard to tell, from the performances of the other contenders, just how well Verrazano actually ran.
Gary West saw a division-topping win:
Verrazano not only moved to the head of the 3-year-old class, but he also put himself in the discussion for Horse of the Year.
Ranking the 3-year-old males by wins through the weekend’s racing, I’d put Verrazano second to Orb, still hanging out at Fair Hill, with his Kentucky Derby and Florida Derby victories, and ahead of Palace Malice, with his Jim Dandy and Belmont Stakes scores. The Travers, which trainer Todd Pletcher said “would be a logical next spot” for the Haskell winner, should clarify where Verrazano fits, assuming the other division leaders show up. Maybe he is as brilliant as he appears, or maybe it’s that his rivals have been so dull.
Preakness winner Oxbow, who suffered an ankle sprain while finishing fourth in the Haskell, may or may not make the Travers, Jerry Bossert reports trainer D. Wayne Lukas saying, but the Breeders’ Cup is still his year-end goal.
*He ranked high on other scales as well: Brisnet, 111; TimeformUS, 124.
3:30 PM Addendum: More on Oxbow from Lukas, via the NYRA press office:
“The X-rays were all perfectly clean,” Lukas said. “It’s what you guys would call an ankle sprain, it looks like. I was more concerned with a condylar [fracture] or something like that but, boy, he had a pretty set of X-rays. It’s amazing. For a horse with that many [starts], they were really clean.”
This is great news, especially since Oxbow has been such a stalwart this year; the Haskell was his eighth start in 2013, his 13th career start.
Belmont Wrap
If a horse swept the spring classics, writes Tim Layden:
A Triple Crown would be a moment — a beautiful, lingering, memorable moment. But on the Sunday morning following the Belmont in which the Triple Crown drought ended, racing would awaken precisely where it was a month before the Derby.
And that would be okay. We’re onward to the second season, regardless.
Palace Malice earned a Beyer speed figure of 98 for winning the Belmont, continuing the trend of 100 or lower Belmont BSFs that began in 2008.
Nick Kling notes an unintentional tribute in the race’s final time of 2:30.70:
Secretariat’s winning final time of 2:24 was at least 31-lengths better than what Palace Malice did Saturday.
Every quarter of the 2013 Belmont was slower than the one before, with Palace Malice running the final quarter in :27.58 (chart). That’s the slowest Belmont quarter (any quarter) of the past 10 years — the next slowest is the :26.98 final quarter of the 2004 Belmont, won by Birdstone. The fastest final quarter of the past 10 years was recorded in the 2007 edition, when Curlin (Palace Malice’s sire) and Rags to Riches dueled down the stretch in :23.83.
Not So Slow
Left at the Gate posted a Preakness Stakes pace analysis that you should read in full, but the upshot is that on a slow track Oxbow:
… was a running fool and bottomed them all out, the way I see it.
Which is why Oxbow’s Preakness Beyer speed figure is 106, something Bill Oppenheim writes about in today’s Thoroughbred Daily News:
When I first saw the time of Saturday’s Preakness S. — 1:57:2/5, the slowest in 51 years … I thought the Beyer speed figure was sure to come back in the nineties. But when I looked at the times for the other dirt races — 1:10 and change for two six-furlong stakes, and 1:46 and change for and older filly-and-mare Grade III — it did look like the track was slow, and Andy Beyer confirmed there was a stiff headwind against the horses in the stretch.
Oppenheim also publishes a table (PDF), with data provided by Andrew Beyer, of the Beyer speed figures for all the Triple Crown races from 1987 to 2013 (minus this year’s Belmont Stakes, of course), documenting the decline in figures over those years, and in particular, the sharp decline in figures over the past five years, especially in the Belmont Stakes. “That has to be the result of lack of stamina in pedigrees,” Beyer tells Oppenheim.
Trends in breeding can’t be ignored, but the data suggest that there may be additional factors at work, such as changing training practices and the elimination of routine steroid use. If you look at the Belmont Stakes figures, until 2005, the Belmont speed figures are generally in line with or higher than the figures for the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. Starting in 2006, the Belmont Stakes figure is consistently lower than both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness figures; from 2006-2012, no Belmont winner earns a higher Beyer than the winner of the Derby or the Preakness.
The most striking thing about the table, though, is that Belmont Stakes figures essentially collapse in 2008. That was the year Da’Tara earned a 99 after Big Brown faltered; no winner has been given better than 100 since. It may be chance, but the period beginning with 2006 coincides with a fresh-is-best training approach to the Triple Crown and a string of Kentucky Derby winners with two preps, and the period beginning with 2008 coincides with a Kentucky Derby winner weaned off Winstrol and an industry-wide steroids ban.
3:45 PM Addendum: Dick Jerardi explains how the 106 given Oxbow was determined: “The key horse in the Preakness was Itsmyluckyday …” (He was given a Beyer of 103 for finishing second.)
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Jessica Chapel writes and edits in Massachusetts. Railbird is a Thoroughbred horse racing blog published from June 2004 to July 2019. More / Contact
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