JC / Railbird

Breeders’ Cup

Clinched?

Bill Finley:

I’ll Have Another has likely clinched Horse of the Year, but there may be an alternative to him in Joe Hirsch Turf Classic winner Point Of Entry.

I admit, I’m a little confounded that anyone thinks I’ll Have Another is a leading Horse of the Year contender, much less that he’s a lock. You have to go back to 1999 to find a Kentucky Derby winner who didn’t race past Triple Crown season named Horse of the Year, and that was Charismatic, honored:

… after a season that was so lackluster some felt no one had done enough to deserve the award. In fact, 11 voters abstained in the Horse of the Year category. Another apparent protest vote was cast for a steeplechase horse named Saluter, the winner of the four-mile Virginia Gold Cup.

This season isn’t over, but it hardly figures to end that badly. Game on Dude, Ron the Greek, Wise Dan, and Point of Entry all have strong claims to the title if any of them win their Breeders’ Cup races.

10/6/12 Addendum: Another vote for IHA as HOTY leader heading into BC. Clearly, I’m out of step. Must be my bias toward whole-year campaigns.

Posted in Racing on October 5, 2012 / Tagged Breeders' Cup, Charismatic, Eclipse Awards, Horse of the Year, I'll Have Another

Classic Contrarian

Caton Bredar on why Royal Delta should attempt a repeat win in the Ladies’ Classic, not try the Breeders’ Cup Classic, this year:

More important than semantics or awards, though, is the idea that the Ladies Classic — particularly this year — is a great race in its own right. Should the field remain intact, it will feature three previous BC winners — Royal Delta joining last year’s juvy filly winner My Miss Aurelia and the 2010 Juvenile Filly winner Awesome Feather. Throw in Questing, Love and Pride and possibly It’s Tricky and right there you have five of the more dynamic distaffers we’ve seen in a long time outside of Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra. Wasn’t it just yesterday we were all lamenting the fact that two of the greatest race mares of our generation never raced against one another? In the Ladies’ Classic, we have the chance for a classic confrontation—a chance many would just throw away simply in the name of “beating the boys.”

10/3/12 Addendum: “It’s shaping up as one of the greatest editions in recent memory.” The distaff buzz, 30 days out.

Posted in Racing on October 2, 2012 / Tagged Breeders' Cup, Champions, Distaffers, Ladies' Choice, Royal Delta

Unfair

Mike Watchmaker on the Super Saturday Santa Anita main track bias:

Look, horses like Game On Dude and Executiveprivilege were probably going to win Saturday whether or not there was a bias, so I don’t think they should be penalized for riding the crest of the way the track was playing. I am less convinced about Love and Pride and Power Broker. But I do know that the way the track was playing, well bet closers such as Richard’s Kid, Include Me Out, Amani, and Capo Bastone had absolutely zero chance. And that’s not fair.

Come the Breeders’ Cup, will we have reason to miss the Santa Anita synthetic?

Posted in Racing on September 30, 2012 / Tagged Bias, Breeders' Cup, Handicapping, Santa Anita, Super Saturday, Track Surfaces

The Home Track Advantage

Jon White looks ahead from Super Saturday to Santa Anita:

The Breeders’ Cup was held at Santa Anita in 1986, 1993, 2003, 2008 and 2009. In those five years, 31 Breeders’ Cup races were decided on Santa Anita’s main track. Horses coming off a race in New York have won just one of those 31 races for a miniscule 3.2% strike rate. That one winner was Lady’s Secret, who captured the 1986 Distaff after having won the Beldame in her most recent start. Lady’s Secret was voted 1986 Horse of the Year and entered the Hall of Fame in 1992.

Yikes. I knew the record was poor, but that’s a stark stat.

New York prepped horses do a bit better finishing in the money in main track Breeders’ Cup races at Santa Anita, with 17 running either second or third in the five years the BC has been held at the SoCal track. The main track race in which New York prepped horses have done the best at Santa Anita is the Juvenile Fillies — five New York fillies have finished in the money. New Yorkers also did their best on the Santa Anita main track in 2008 and 2009 — the synthetic surface years — when five and four, respectively, finished in the money, particularly in the Filly and Mare Sprint (2nd and 3rd, 2008), Distaff (2nd and 3rd, 2008), and Dirt Mile (2nd and 3rd, 2009).

Posted in Racing on September 28, 2012 / Tagged Belmont Park, Breeders' Cup, New York, Santa Anita, Statistics