Buzz Babies
Jaycito to Win
As good as Uncle Mo appears to be, I was more impressed by the finishing punch shown by Jaycito, who won his maiden winning the 1 1/16-mile Norfolk Stakes around two turns at Hollywood Park on Oct. 2. In that race, Jaycito caught and passed J P’s Gusto, a fast, three-time stakes winner. The image I had reviewing that race was of Jaycito doing the same to Uncle Mo on Breeders’ Cup Day.
Me too.
(Via @JaycitoHOY2011, the latest in faux racehorse tweeting.)
It may be futile, but I’m trying to resist the lure of history, in which Uncle Mo potentially figures on the basis of his stellar performance (and final time) in the Champagne Stakes. “Since the 1940 adjustment of the Champagne to one mile,” writes Nick Kling, “only five other colts have run under 1:35. They were Count Fleet (1942), Vitriolic (1967), Spectacular Bid (1978), Easy Goer (1988), and Sea Hero (1992).” That’s in addition to Champagne record-setter Devil’s Bag and second-fastest Seattle Slew. It’s good company. “The scary thing,” trainer Todd Pletcher told Tim Wilkin, “is that I think he is still learning.”
In the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, jockey Calvin Borel picks up the mount on Tell a Kelly. “He’s the man at Churchill Downs,” said trainer John Sadler.
The Big Three
Saturday’s Dewhurst Stakes drew a dozen possibles, including undefeated Frankel, Dream Ahead, and Saamidd, whetting interest in “the most eagerly-awaited two-year-old race of the modern era,” or, if you prefer, “the best race for two-year-olds in living memory.” Oh, my, that is hype. It makes all the post-Champagne Stakes twittering about the anticipated Uncle Mo and Boys at Tosconova match-up in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile look staid by comparison (for example, see Dick Jerardi, John Pricci). Some hype is certainly justified — it’s undeniably an intriguing scenario shaping up at Newmarket, with the flawless reputations of the Dewhurst Big 3 on the line.
Aside: Don’t worry about Frankel’s jockey, Tom Queally, who fell from a horse at Goodwood on Sunday. “He’s not concussed,” said the rider’s agent.
A few other buzz baby items to note: Wickedly Perfect, winner of the Alcibiades Stakes at Keeneland on Friday, and AZ Warrior, winner of the Frizette Stakes at Belmont on Saturday, were the second and third fillies to come back from the Debutante Stakes at Del Mar last month to score a stakes win. Rigoletta, third in that race to Wickedly Perfect and Tell a Kelly, won the Oak Leaf Stakes at Hollywood last week. The Debutante has also yielded a next-out allowance winner, with sixth-place finisher Sugarinthemorning winning at Hollywood on Sunday … Wickedly Perfect won’t make the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. A bone chip was discovered in her knee after the Alcibiades … AZ Warrior was one of two G1 winners for freshman sire Bernardini over the weekend. His other was Biondetti, taking the Gran Criterium in Milan for Godolphin. The colt is possible for the Breeders’ Cup, said trainer Mahmood al Zarooni … Aidan O’Brien trainee Together, second to undefeated White Moonstone in the Fillies’ Mile, could start in the Turf Fillies.
Housekeeping: Taking advantage of Equibase’s improved features, including the new horse profile pages with charts and workouts info, the spreadsheet’s been cleaned up (and should be much easier to use).
Will Mo Have Mo?
Brad Free on the likely Champagne favorite (DRF+):
Uncle Mo might become a star. He might be a future footnote. Either way, handicappers should be aware that recent history suggests Uncle Mo is likely to regress Saturday in his second start. When a 2-year-old firster runs a triple-digit Beyer, it takes time to revitalize.
In the past 10 years, writes Free, 15 2YOs have run a triple-digit BSF in their debut. Only two improved on their figure in their next start.
Bob Ehalt’s Ragozin anaylsis runs to a similar conclusion: “Weighing all of those possibilities, Uncle Mo seems more likely to regress than advance …”
10/9/10 Update: Question answered. Uncle Mo dominated the G1 Champagne Stakes at Belmont today, winning the one-mile race by open lengths in 1:34.51 after being pressed through a half in :45.92 by I’m Steppin’ It up:
Said trainer Todd Pletcher after, “He’s obviously a very fast and talented horse and it looked as if he was doing it easily.” Uncle Mo will ship to Churchill Downs on October 26 for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
Beyer speed figures, via @andyserling: 94 for Uncle Mo in the Champagne Stakes, 81 for AZ Warrior in the Frizette Stakes.
Thursday Notes
Wait, Forever Together might not be done yet. Trainer Jonathan Sheppard, who said after the champion finished sixth in the Flower Bowl, “It’s no fun watching her run like that,” and suggested the 6-year-old mare would be retired, told Alicia Wincze Forever Together might get another race. “If we get firm ground [for the Breeders’ Cup] we might go on. We haven’t ruled anything out.”
Jaycito should have the stamina for the Kentucky Derby, and that’s the race trainer Mike Mitchell has his eye on. “The ultimate race we want to run in is the Derby,” he said after Jaycito broke his maiden in his third start, last Saturday’s Norfolk. In his two previous efforts, the juvenile finished second to JP’s Gusto in the Del Mar Futurity and second to Indian Winter, third in the Futurity, in a maiden special. Like Stay Thirsty, entered but unlikely for the Champagne unless stablemate Uncle Mo scratches, he’s a colt on the upswing. [Re: that last link, it goes to trainer Todd Pletcher’s ATR blog, on which he also mentions that Frizette starter Tap for Luck, “is probably the one that’s bred the best to get more distance. Unfortunately, she’s only had one race and it was five furlongs so we’re stretching out more than you would like.”]
With the Southern California horse population down, Santa Anita will try a less-is-more schedule this winter. The track plans four-day weeks, with racing Thursday through Sunday. The change, said track president George Haines, “should make the quality better on the weekends.” Fuller fields are something to look forward to; a shame about the takeout increase.
Kerry Thomas talks equine psychology. “Herd dynamics have an impact on a horse’s ability to maintain pace over a distance. Where they fit in a herd is where they’re naturally inclined to move in any group.” Fascinating stuff.
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Jessica Chapel writes and edits in Massachusetts. Railbird is a Thoroughbred horse racing blog published from June 2004 to July 2019. More / Contact
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