California Chrome
Superior Belief
California Chrome went to post in the San Antonio Stakes at Santa Anita on Saturday as something of an anomaly — he was the first Horse of the Year since All Along in 1984 not to enter the gate as the favorite in his or her first start back the following year. All Along had a few excuses — the 1983 Horse of the Year didn’t return until the Turf Classic at Belmont the following September, 10 months after last winning the D.C. International at Laurel, and had to face the venerable John Henry, in his final season and peak form. He won the Turf Classic as the even-money favorite, and she finished fourth.
Shared Belief also had a recency edge, but it was the widely shared belief (sorry) that he was the better horse — if unlucky in not being able to prove it last year, first missing the Triple Crown races, then getting slammed out of contention by Bayern in the Breeders’ Cup Classic — that made him the odds-on favorite in the San Antonio and California Chrome the 7-5 second.
You have to appreciate that the race was run in such a way — clean from start to finish — that there’s no questioning the results:
How Shared Belief passes California Chrome in the final sixteenth? It’s what I’d feared would happen to Rachel Alexandra if she and Zenyatta met. He’s so brilliant, it’s almost possible to miss that the top pair is lengths ahead of the rest of the field. They’re both monsters; Clark Handicap winner Hoppertunity ended up finishing 6 1/2 lengths behind California Chrome.
Shared Belief was given a Beyer speed figure of 106, and a TimeformUS figure of 112, for winning the San Antonio. Per Ed Golden’s stable notes, he and Chrome reportedly came out of the race in good shape. The two will point to separate races for their next starts — Shared Belief targeting the Santa Anita Handicap and California Chrome the Dubai World Cup.
Will Take Retirement
The older horse division takes another hit with the loss of Will Take Charge, retired to Three Chimneys after suffering a minor suspensory injury. Less than six weeks to the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and last year’s winner, Mucho Macho Man, is out, along with Game on Dude and Palace Malice. (So, three of the top four finishers in this year’s Santa Anita Handicap are done racing, and New York’s best older Classic hope is Whitney winner Moreno.) For the first time since Raven’s Pass in 2008, a 3-year-old could win the Classic — at least eight are in contention, including unbeaten Pacific Classic winner Shared Belief. His stock, already high, gained following California Chrome’s dismal return in the Pennsylvania Derby, won by Bayern, aka “little Dude.” The dual classic winner will train up to the Breeders’ Cup, and trainer Art Sherman is looking toward a happier result: “We’ll be a lot better price,” he said.
– – – – –
Be Bullish, making his 83rd career start and dropping from $40K to $16K, finished second to Make a Fortune in the third race at Belmont on Sunday, bringing his earnings up to $4,000 shy of $1 million. Bruce Levine claimed the 9-year-old gelding for owner Mike Repole. “Will evaluate his condition before deciding to race/retire,” tweet-reported David Grening.
Jaycito makes his 28th career start on Monday, running in the 10th at Zia Park. He’ll be running at his lowest level yet — $30K, which is $20K less than the G1 winner’s purchase price at Keeneland in November 2013. [9/22/14 Update: Jaycito finished third, beaten 10 1/2 lengths. He was not claimed.]
The Connection
Like so much about California Chrome’s story, it started with a feeling:
The 42-year-old Espinoza is a respected rider, but his business has slipped recently for no discernible reason except the whims of his clients. For several months Espinoza watched Chrome, at Del Mar and at the now shuttered Hollywood Park. He liked him. “I told my agent [Brian Beach], ‘There’s something about that horse, Art Sherman’s horse,'” says Espinoza. “I’m not even sure what it was. I thought I would just fit him.”
Beach remembers the conversation. “Certain riders just go together with certain horses,” he says. “Their styles or just physically, the way the rider sits on the horse. Victor thought he was a good match with this horse.”
Chrome is not only unbeaten in six races with Espinoza, but horse and rider have also been uncommonly synchronous. When Chrome tired at the top of the stretch in the Kentucky Derby, Espinoza reminded him to change leads. Even as Chrome habitually turns his head from side to side in the starting gate (his blinkers inhibit peripheral vision), Espinoza has taught him to break cleanly. Every small acceleration that Espinoza needs, Chrome provides. “Tremendous ability,” says Espinoza. “So much talent.” The colt rarely feels Espinoza’s whip (just twice in the furious Preakness homestretch), instead trusting the rider’s hands to guide most of his action.
6/3/14 Addendum: Joe Drape tells the story of strangers, but for a horse.
Chrome Works
David Grening on California Chrome’s breeze this morning (DRF+):
With regular rider Victor Espinoza up, California Chrome went his first quarter in 24.14 seconds and his second quarter in 23.30, according to DRF clocker Mike Welsch. It only got better from there, as he galloped out five furlongs in 59.59 seconds, six furlongs in 1:12.61, seven furlongs in 1:26.34, and pulled up a mile in 1:40.92.
That’s a sharp move. His official time for the four-furlong breeze was :47.69.
“I’m not a clocker but California Chrome looked full of run and seemed to have plenty left in the tank,” tweeted Jerry Bossert.
Here’s video of the work:
More on California Chrome’s work, as well as the other Belmont starters’ workouts this morning, at the Blood-Horse.
General a Rod, fourth in the Preakness and 11th in the Kentucky Derby, has joined the list of Belmont Stakes probables, bringing the number to 12.
6/1/14 Addendum: Welsch weighs in (DRF+). “The best part of the work came after the wire, as California Chrome galloped out with tremendous energy, even with Espinoza rising up in the saddle shortly past the finish line …”
The Odds
FiveThirtyEight analyzes the 36-year Triple Crown drought:
The last 12 horses to win the Derby and the Preakness have failed to complete the Triple Crown. With a historical success rate of 33 percent, the current 12-race slump is unlikely: The odds of it happening by chance are about 1 in 130 — nearly the same as the 2011 Atlanta Braves failing to make Major League Baseball’s playoffs with 18 games remaining and an 8.5-game lead for the wild card.
Here’s another way of putting it:
The odds of all 11 horses that raced in the Belmont losing at their race odds (by chance) are only 1 in 20,000 — about the odds of a random pitcher throwing a perfect game on a given night.
California Chrome is expected to face a full field in the Belmont Stakes. NYRA reported the historically daunting number of 11 on Saturday:
No horse has won the Triple Crown facing more than seven rivals, which Seattle Slew and Citation did in 1977 and 1948, respectively. Secretariat in 1973 and Affirmed, the most recent Triple Crown winner in 1978, both defeated four others.
With Intense Holiday now out after suffering a condylar fracture while working on Sunday (trainer Todd Pletcher said the injury wasn’t life-threatening and may not be career-ending), the list of possible challengers stands at 10, including Wicked Strong, Tonalist, Samraat, and Commissioner. All four also worked on Sunday: Videos of their works, plus one of California Chrome galloping, are available on the NYRA YouTube channel.
5/28/14 Update: Medal Count, eighth in the Kentucky Derby, has been declared possible for the Belmont. “[His] Derby was better than it looks,” said trainer Dale Romans, making a case for his colt as Triple Crown spoiler. “History shows it will be difficult for California Chrome.”
Trips and Limits
Ed DeRosa on the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner:
California Chrome was much the best in both races because of what I prefer to call “clean trips†rather than “perfect trips.†Clean because he stayed out of trouble but not perfect because — especially in the Preakness — he was fighting every step of the race and turned back all challengers.
That’s a useful distinction, especially in looking ahead to the kind of trip California Chrome might get in the Belmont Stakes. It won’t be perfect, because no one is going to cede a step to the dual classic winner. But clean might not be enough. If Victor Espinoza thought he was a target in the Preakness and had to ride defensively — “I had to start early because the outside horse was pushing me,” said the jockey after the race, “I thought I had the perfect position, but when the outside horse attacked me, I had to open it up at that point” — the Belmont is going to ratchet that pressure up.
Sam Walker remains skeptical of California Chrome’s Triple Crown chances:
The main worry with California Chrome is that he had his stamina exposed in the Derby two weeks ago, where he finished relatively slowly off a steady pace, producing a weak final time (over 1m2f). The expectation is that he will have even less in reserve at the end of the Belmont (over 1m4f).
So stamina is a concern, but so too is class. Sure, the colt has an edge over his contemporaries but so did every other failed Belmont favourite.
When he was trouncing his opposition in the Golden State he looked set to take the world by storm. Back then the sky was the limit, but he hasn’t continued that progress in the Classics. Indeed, his RPRs have plateaued.
At Santa Anita he ran to 124, in the Derby it was 125 and in the Preakness 125 again. We appear to be close to finding the limit of his ability — and in the Derby I think we found the limit of his stamina.
Danza is out of the Belmont. He isn’t 100%; he’ll get some time off.
Belmont Bound
Two down, one to go, and making history won’t be easy. NYRA released a list of 11 potential Belmont Stakes starters shortly after California Chrome won the Preakness Stakes, including Kentucky Derby runner-up Commanding Curve and third-place finisher Danza. They’ll be fresh, as will Wicked Strong (fourth in the Derby) and Samraat (fifth). Ride on Curlin and Social Inclusion, second and third in the Preakness, are also possible for the Belmont, as are Commissioner, Intense Holiday, Kid Cruz, and Peter Pan winner Tonalist.
California Chrome was given a Beyer speed figure of 105 and a new career-top TimeformUS figure of 116 for his Preakness performance. He won his sixth straight race with another perfect trip and yet another display of his awesome ability to accelerate turning into the stretch. “He’s a freak of nature,” trainer Bob Baffert told HRTV after his starter, Bayern, finished ninth in the Preakness. “Nobody’s been able to run with him late.” Call it the California kick.
Here’s the Preakness replay (and chart):
“It was a crazy race,†said jockey Victor Espinoza said afterwards, about the tactical decisions he had to make. “I got more tired mentally than physically.â€
The Preakness winner and runner-up were reported to be in good shape on Sunday morning. Trainer Art Sherman hasn’t settled on a plan for California Chrome leading into the Belmont, but said the colt may breeze once before.
Sherman’s Smile
One morning last week, Sherman, an impish 77 years old, leaned against a white-railed fence outside a horse barn at Pimlico Race Course. “That Secretariat, what a great horse he was,” he said. “I remember watching him run. All these years I’m thinking, I wonder if I’ll ever have a horse like that.” In the early morning light, Sherman shoved his hands a little deeper into the pockets of his green windbreaker, and looked over the top of his eyeglasses. “Well now,” he said, “maybe I do.” And then he smiled his little crooked smile, full of the impossible.
He Likes It
After the Kentucky Derby winner jogged on Tuesday:
[Exercise rider Willie] Delgado said California Chrome seemed to prefer the dirt at Pimlico to that at Churchill Downs. “Churchill wasn’t one of his favorite tracks,†he said. “He just tolerated it.â€
California Chrome wasn’t drawing raves for the way he went over Churchill’s surface before the Derby — “not the prettiest mover,” observed Mike Welsch, “Jay Privman said he’s certainly looked better back west” — so it’s interesting to see him praised for how he’s handling Pimlico.
Apparently, he’s also feeling fresh (PDF):
California Chrome … didn’t seem to appreciate being shut down for the day after passing a “Sunrise at Old Hilltop” group near the wire after jogging an easy mile. “Settle down … settle down … settle down,” Delgado calmly asked of his charge as he began applying the brakes.
And holding his weight: Trainer Art Sherman estimates that California Chrome “has put on about 35 pounds since winning the Derby,” tweets Claire Novak.
It’s all looking good for Saturday …
5/15/14 Addendum: What’s this? Chrome coughs; his people say he’s fine.
Fresh
Trainer Art Sherman on California Chrome’s likely Preakness competition:
“You know, they’ve all gotten beat,†he said. “People are gonna have to realize [California Chrome] is coming off five victories straight and a lot of [these other] horses are still eligible for conditions. There are no bona fide stakes horses in there.
“If you’ve been in the game as long as I have, you’ve got to prove yourself. You’re not going to get away with an easy-go just because you’re fresh coming into this race. [Chrome] is a seasoned, veteran horse right now coming into these races and I think that’s going to be a big help for him.â€
The Kentucky Derby winner and nine others are possible for next Saturday.
About
Jessica Chapel writes and edits in Massachusetts. Railbird is a Thoroughbred horse racing blog published from June 2004 to July 2019. More / Contact
Elsewhere
Find Jessica on Pinboard and Instagram, Railbird on LibraryThing and Twitter.
Etc.
Links
Search
Boston Racing
Spreadsheets/Data
← Home
Copyright © 2000-2023 by Jessica Chapel. All rights reserved.