Railbird 2004–2019

California Chrome

Trips and Limits

Ed DeRosa on the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner:

California Chrome was much the best in both races because of what I prefer to call “clean trips” rather than “perfect trips.” Clean because he stayed out of trouble but not perfect because — especially in the Preakness — he was fighting every step of the race and turned back all challengers.

That’s a useful distinction, especially in looking ahead to the kind of trip California Chrome might get in the Belmont Stakes. It won’t be perfect, because no one is going to cede a step to the dual classic winner. But clean might not be enough. If Victor Espinoza thought he was a target in the Preakness and had to ride defensively — “I had to start early because the outside horse was pushing me,” said the jockey after the race, “I thought I had the perfect position, but when the outside horse attacked me, I had to open it up at that point” — the Belmont is going to ratchet that pressure up.

Sam Walker remains skeptical of California Chrome’s Triple Crown chances:

The main worry with California Chrome is that he had his stamina exposed in the Derby two weeks ago, where he finished relatively slowly off a steady pace, producing a weak final time (over 1m2f). The expectation is that he will have even less in reserve at the end of the Belmont (over 1m4f).

So stamina is a concern, but so too is class. Sure, the colt has an edge over his contemporaries but so did every other failed Belmont favourite.

When he was trouncing his opposition in the Golden State he looked set to take the world by storm. Back then the sky was the limit, but he hasn’t continued that progress in the Classics. Indeed, his RPRs have plateaued.

At Santa Anita he ran to 124, in the Derby it was 125 and in the Preakness 125 again. We appear to be close to finding the limit of his ability — and in the Derby I think we found the limit of his stamina.

Danza is out of the Belmont. He isn’t 100%; he’ll get some time off.

Posted in Racing on May 21, 2014 / Tagged Belmont Stakes, California Chrome, Danza, Preakness Stakes, Triple Crown

Belmont Bound

Two down, one to go, and making history won’t be easy. NYRA released a list of 11 potential Belmont Stakes starters shortly after California Chrome won the Preakness Stakes, including Kentucky Derby runner-up Commanding Curve and third-place finisher Danza. They’ll be fresh, as will Wicked Strong (fourth in the Derby) and Samraat (fifth). Ride on Curlin and Social Inclusion, second and third in the Preakness, are also possible for the Belmont, as are Commissioner, Intense Holiday, Kid Cruz, and Peter Pan winner Tonalist.

California Chrome was given a Beyer speed figure of 105 and a new career-top TimeformUS figure of 116 for his Preakness performance. He won his sixth straight race with another perfect trip and yet another display of his awesome ability to accelerate turning into the stretch. “He’s a freak of nature,” trainer Bob Baffert told HRTV after his starter, Bayern, finished ninth in the Preakness. “Nobody’s been able to run with him late.” Call it the California kick.

Here’s the Preakness replay (and chart):

“It was a crazy race,” said jockey Victor Espinoza said afterwards, about the tactical decisions he had to make. “I got more tired mentally than physically.”

The Preakness winner and runner-up were reported to be in good shape on Sunday morning. Trainer Art Sherman hasn’t settled on a plan for California Chrome leading into the Belmont, but said the colt may breeze once before.

Posted in Racing on May 18, 2014 / Tagged Belmont Stakes, California Chrome, Preakness Stakes, Speed Figures, Triple Crown

Sherman’s Smile

Tim Layden:

One morning last week, Sherman, an impish 77 years old, leaned against a white-railed fence outside a horse barn at Pimlico Race Course. “That Secretariat, what a great horse he was,” he said. “I remember watching him run. All these years I’m thinking, I wonder if I’ll ever have a horse like that.” In the early morning light, Sherman shoved his hands a little deeper into the pockets of his green windbreaker, and looked over the top of his eyeglasses. “Well now,” he said, “maybe I do.” And then he smiled his little crooked smile, full of the impossible.

Posted in Racing on May 17, 2014 / Tagged Art Sherman, California Chrome, Favorites, Preakness Stakes, Secretariat, Triple Crown

He Likes It

After the Kentucky Derby winner jogged on Tuesday:

[Exercise rider Willie] Delgado said California Chrome seemed to prefer the dirt at Pimlico to that at Churchill Downs. “Churchill wasn’t one of his favorite tracks,” he said. “He just tolerated it.”

California Chrome wasn’t drawing raves for the way he went over Churchill’s surface before the Derby — “not the prettiest mover,” observed Mike Welsch, “Jay Privman said he’s certainly looked better back west” — so it’s interesting to see him praised for how he’s handling Pimlico.

Apparently, he’s also feeling fresh (PDF):

California Chrome … didn’t seem to appreciate being shut down for the day after passing a “Sunrise at Old Hilltop” group near the wire after jogging an easy mile. “Settle down … settle down … settle down,” Delgado calmly asked of his charge as he began applying the brakes.

And holding his weight: Trainer Art Sherman estimates that California Chrome “has put on about 35 pounds since winning the Derby,” tweets Claire Novak.

It’s all looking good for Saturday …

5/15/14 Addendum: What’s this? Chrome coughs; his people say he’s fine.

Posted in Racing on May 14, 2014 / Tagged California Chrome, Favorites, Pimlico, Preakness Stakes, Triple Crown

Fresh

Trainer Art Sherman on California Chrome’s likely Preakness competition:

“You know, they’ve all gotten beat,” he said. “People are gonna have to realize [California Chrome] is coming off five victories straight and a lot of [these other] horses are still eligible for conditions. There are no bona fide stakes horses in there.

“If you’ve been in the game as long as I have, you’ve got to prove yourself. You’re not going to get away with an easy-go just because you’re fresh coming into this race. [Chrome] is a seasoned, veteran horse right now coming into these races and I think that’s going to be a big help for him.”

The Kentucky Derby winner and nine others are possible for next Saturday.

Posted in Racing on May 11, 2014 / Tagged Art Sherman, Bayern, California Chrome, Preakness Stakes, Social Inclusion, Triple Crown