JC / Railbird

Champions

Returning HOTYs

When Wise Dan makes his first start of the year at Keeneland on April 12, don’t bet against him. Returning Horses of the Year are 16 for 21 since 1972:

Favored returning HOTYs are 16 for 20. With a return of $43.50 on $40 bet, that makes favored returning HOTYs just about the surest bet in racing.

(The chart above is an updated version of one that appeared in a lengthier post about betting returning champions in March 2010.)

1:15 PM Addendum: So, how might you play Wise Dan? Hello Race Fans has some tips on factoring favorites, and singling and spreading.

Posted in Racing on April 4, 2013 / Tagged Betting, Champions, Favorites, First Starts, Horse of the Year, Statistics

AF (After Frankel)

Considering what’s ahead, post-Champions Day 2012:

Enthusiasts will have to return to the humdrum of an annual champion who was the best of his group but ultimately beatable on an off day and certainly no Frankel; a return to championship races which are open to more than one horse; to speculative punting instead of money-laundering on 1-20 shots, to a time of oligopoly instead of monopoly, and to a time when valid debates can be held over who is the ‘best’ horse in a given year.

Also an apt description of the America scene since November 6, 2010.

Posted in Racing on October 16, 2012 / Tagged Champions, Champions Day, Frankel, Great Horses, International, UK

Classic Contrarian

Caton Bredar on why Royal Delta should attempt a repeat win in the Ladies’ Classic, not try the Breeders’ Cup Classic, this year:

More important than semantics or awards, though, is the idea that the Ladies Classic — particularly this year — is a great race in its own right. Should the field remain intact, it will feature three previous BC winners — Royal Delta joining last year’s juvy filly winner My Miss Aurelia and the 2010 Juvenile Filly winner Awesome Feather. Throw in Questing, Love and Pride and possibly It’s Tricky and right there you have five of the more dynamic distaffers we’ve seen in a long time outside of Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra. Wasn’t it just yesterday we were all lamenting the fact that two of the greatest race mares of our generation never raced against one another? In the Ladies’ Classic, we have the chance for a classic confrontation—a chance many would just throw away simply in the name of “beating the boys.”

10/3/12 Addendum: “It’s shaping up as one of the greatest editions in recent memory.” The distaff buzz, 30 days out.

Posted in Racing on October 2, 2012 / Tagged Breeders' Cup, Champions, Distaffers, Ladies' Choice, Royal Delta

Plans for Goldikova

Trainer Freddie Head, at Meydan for Dubai World Cup day, outlined a likely campaign for the 6-year-old champion mare:

“We will try and run in the same races as last year, starting off in the Prix d’Ispahan and then the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot.

“One of the big plans is the Jacques Le Marois again and the Breeders’ Cup.

“If she wins the Breeders’ Cup she could go for the Hong Kong Mile as she will not run next year.”

It’s going to be quite a valedictory world tour.

Posted in Racing on March 24, 2011 / Tagged Breeders' Cup, Champions, Distaffers, Goldikova, Hong Kong, International, Swan Songs