JC / Railbird

Churchill Downs

A Lucky Classic?

Well, I suppose it’s possible:

A defeat for dirt leader Quality Road and a sub-par success for all-weather leader Zenyatta were two further indications that Bob Baffert may be about to get lucky in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

The first clue came last week, when his stable star ran away with the Haskell Invitational, posting the best performance by an American three-year-old this year.

But with the leading older horses having the chinks in their armour exposed on the weekend, it now looks increasingly likely that the elite division could be set for a changing of the guards in November.

Although, I’m not sure what chink is being referred to re: Zenyatta. The sub :24 final quarter? Or maybe the final sixteenth in :5.94?

Related: Eight reasons Pull the Pocket likes Zenyatta. Point #2, right on.

Posted in Racing on August 9, 2010 / Tagged Breeders' Cup, Breeders' Cup Classic, Churchill Downs, Farfetched, Lookin at Lucky, Quality Road, Racing Post, Speed, Speed Ratings, When Figures Obfuscate, Zenyatta

Rachel Alexandra Works with New Rider

Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra breezed four furlongs at Churchill Downs this morning, her first work since finishing second to Unrivaled Belle in the LaTroienne Stakes on the Kentucky Oaks undercard. Daily Racing Form gives the filly a flat time of :52 for the move, while Churchill (which sent out the Reed Palmer photo above) reports she went in :50, with splits of :13, :25.60 and :38.60, and galloped out five furlongs in 1:05.60. The time discrepancy isn’t all that’s interesting about Rachel Alexandra’s workout — there was also a notable change of rider, with jockey Shaun Bridgmohan up today in place of Dominic Terry, the filly’s regular exercise rider since she moved into Steve Asmussen’s barn following the 2009 Kentucky Oaks. “It was an easy first work back,” said the trainer, saying nothing, as is his way. “It’s nice cool morning and everything is ideal today. It’s another step in the process.” Re: Terry, via the Rachel Alexandra group on Facebook, comes this unfortunate notice:

5/18/10 Update: Rachel Alexandra worked five furlongs in 1:04.20 over the sloppy Churchill surface on Monday, May 17, again with Bridgmohan up. Reports the Daily Racing Form, regarding the rider change, “Terry recently went to work for Dallas Stewart.”

9/13/10 Update: Dominic Terry was back aboard Rachel Alexandra for a workout over the Oklahoma training track this morning. The filly, in her first work since finishing second to Persistently in the Personal Ensign at Saratoga on August 29, breezed five furlongs in 1:00.65, the fastest of six at the distance, and galloped out six furlongs in 1:13.80.

Posted in Racing on May 10, 2010 / Tagged Churchill Downs, Dominic Terry, Jockeys, Rachel Alexandra, Shaun Bridgmohan, Workouts

The Borel Factor

Imagine the Derby winning rider on another horse, muses Jennie Rees:

Not to disparage the jockeys of the horses below, and maybe it wouldn’t apply at any other track, and maybe not any other race. (And in no way to take anything away from Super Saver’s big effort.)

But wouldn’t you want to know what kind of trips that Lookin At Lucky and Ice Box would have gotten if Calvin Borel had been aboard?

Both might have had better trips with Borel aboard, but would it have mattered for either? I briefly wrote about the Derby fractions yesterday; individual splits were ugly, final fractions lousy. It seems unlikely a rider change would have meant anything to Lookin at Lucky, “bumped two or three times” in the early going. After a troubled first in :25.84, the favorite did pick up the pace a little, running the second quarter in :24.11, the third in the same time, and the fourth in :24.62, but his final quarter was an unexciting :26.95. Whatever else happened, Lookin at Lucky didn’t have it yesterday — not losing ground at the start might have moved him up in the order of finish, but he wasn’t going to win. Ice Box is a little more interesting to consider: He ran every quarter but the first faster than the winner. You can’t begrudge trainer Nick Zito for wondering about what might have been, if the Florida Derby winner had only broken a bit more quickly and not been steadied twice in the stretch.

That Rees is even wondering about what could have been with Borel reflects how big a story is the rider this year: “Borel is the Derby king,” with his uncanny affinity for Churchill Downs. Blame the rider “for turning America’s great race into a rerun” with his rail-riding confidence. Call him “a man of destiny.” “He knows Churchill Downs better than anyone else,” and his “uncluttered mind seems to be an absolute gift in pressure situations.” After winning three times in four years, is there any chance the public will let Borel go to post in the 2011 Derby on a horse that’s more than 3-1?

How Super Saver prepped: Lightly. This year’s winner started in two preps (making him the fourth consecutive horse to win the Derby doing so — it’s time for me to concede such contenders must be taken seriously) and had only one work between the Arkansas Derby and Kentucky Derby:

Of the top five finishers, two came out of the Arkansas Derby (Super Saver, Noble’s Promise) and two (Paddy O’Prado, Make Music for Me) from the Blue Grass Stakes — a reminder that race still has some claim as a legitimate Derby prep, regardless of what handicappers think of the Polytrack era or its longshot winners.

5/3/10 Addendum: Somehow I missed Borel’s post-Derby prediction:

“I’m going to win the Triple Crown this year,” he declared.

Bold. But could this be the year?

Posted in Racing on May 2, 2010 / Tagged Calvin Borel, Churchill Downs, Derby Preps, Jockeys, Kentucky Derby, Super Saver