JC / Railbird

Churchill Downs

Odds and Ends

Tim Layden tries to ask trainer Steve Asmussen about the PETA allegations: “I just don’t think this is the time or the place to address it. I think the preparation of these horses for a once in a lifetime opportunity is the focus. And that’s what I’m going to concentrate on right now.” Lots of questions, but unless I’ve missed it, I don’t think anyone’s asked this — are Oaks and Derby contenders Untapable and Taptiture getting thyroxine (a drug mentioned as a widely used supplement in Asmussen’s barn in the PETA video) and if so, why?

Steve Davidowitz writes that the Kentucky Derby isn’t just the fastest or the greatest two minutes in sports: “it also is the most dangerous.” Cover your eyes when they break from the gate!

Gary Stevens will ride Will Take Charge in the Alysheba Stakes at Churchill Downs on Friday. “We’re looking at the big picture,” trainer D. Wayne Lukas told Dave Grening. “The Breeders’ Cup is at Santa Anita and Gary knows every grain of sand there. Nothing against Luis, but I thought Gary would be a natural fit.” Stevens and Mucho Macho Man beat Luis Saez and Will Take Charge by a nose in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. Sounds like the jockey switch means the “Man” will need a new rider for this year.

Posted in Racing on April 30, 2014 / Tagged Churchill Downs, Jockey Switches, Kentucky Derby, PETA, Steve Asmussen, Will Take Charge

Sturm und Derby

Is there anyone who isn’t upset with Churchill Downs this Kentucky Derby week? Well, Steve Asmussen was smiling while paddock schooling Kentucky Oaks morning-line favorite Untapable and Derby contender Tapiture this afternoon, despite the PETA allegations. And trainer Art Sherman seems happy to be in Louisville, although who knows what he really thought on seeing California Chrome’s name misspelled on his Derby contender saddlecloth.

But nine out of 10 Horseplayers Association members polled reportedly plan to bet Churchill less or not at all, due to the recent takeout hike. Rick Porter of Fox Hill Farm is fed up with Churchill’s gracelessness towards horse owners on stakes days (fellow owner Bobby Flay tweeted his support). And Little Mike’s owner-trainer Carl Vaccarezza is furious that the track took a blood sample for out-of-competition testing from his stable star in advance of the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic. (Little Mike now won’t be running on Saturday.)

Call it the Angry Derby.

If there’s good news, it’s that the horses don’t care. Twenty will go to post at about 6:24 PM on Saturday, and one will be the Kentucky Derby winner at approximately 6:30 PM. Post positions won’t be drawn until late Wednesday afternoon, but it’s not too early to start geeking out on Derby handicapping. If you’re looking for the 2014 historical criteria spreadsheet, it’s here, and it’ll be fully updated after Derby past performances are available.

4/30/14 Addendum: Re: the above in the context of the rumor that the Breeders’ Cup will be at Keeneland in 2015 (and Del Mar in 2016): “Lately, however, Churchill Downs’ ability to generate cash has been running neck-and-neck with its knack for making enemies.” Ow. And Frank Vespe explains why we should care about Porter’s rage: “He’s mad as hell … and a lot of people around racing are feeling the same way.”

Posted in Racing on April 29, 2014 / Tagged Churchill Downs, Derby Handicapping, HANA, Horseplayers, Kentucky Derby, Owners, Rick Porter

Pricing

Tom LaMarra on simulcasting fees and Churchill’s recent takeout hike:

I’m no math whiz, so correct me if I’m wrong. In the case of Churchill, if its host fee remains the same, a rebate shop and its customers get to keep the extra 3 percentage points when the exacta takeout goes from 19% to 22%.

If you operate a rebate shop or are a large importer of simulcast signals, higher takeout is money. That may explain why racetracks, rebate shops, and [ADWs] don’t complain about 30% trifecta rakes: If they pay the sender 3% for the signal, there’s 27 cents per dollar to play with before taxes.

Matt Hegarty on how those cents might get shared:

If simulcast rates do not go up at the same rate as the takeouts, then some players may not feel the full impact of the hikes. Many account-wagering operations, including Churchill’s mammoth twinspires.com and an offshore site the company bought several years ago, offer rebates to players, and some sites may elect to forgo the additional revenue to increase the rebates to their players on the Churchill signal. Many rebated players, including those who use automated systems employing algorithms to determine their wagers, are highly sensitive to takeout rates.

Posted in Industry on April 16, 2014 / Tagged Business, Churchill Downs, Handle, Price Discrimination, Rebating, Simulcasting, Takeout, Wagering

Breeders’ Cup Favorites

From Jeff Scott’s Breeders’ Cup tidbits:

Favorites won 32 percent (38-120) of races in the sample, a figure comparable to the record of racing favorites in general. The fact that BC fields are considerably larger than average may make the 32 percent strike rate higher than expected.

Favorites have had mixed success finishing in the money in the recent years. In 2012, favorites finished in the top three in five of six races on Friday, six of nine on Saturday. In 2011, three of six on Friday, four of nine on Saturday. In 2010, four of six on Friday, four of eight on Saturday.

10/26/13 Addendum: Breeders’ Cup contenders, by the numbers. “There are 121 group or graded stakes winners in the entries, including 71 winners of Group 1 or Grade 1 races.” And 74 of the 172 pre-entries won their last starts.

Posted in Racing on October 23, 2013 / Tagged Betting, Breeders' Cup, Churchill Downs, Favorites, Santa Anita, Statistics