Derby Preps
Thursday Notes
Jaycito returned to the track this morning for the first time since his runner-up effort in the San Felipe last Saturday. He’ll be getting blinkers on again in the Santa Anita Derby, reports Steve Haskin, “after losing his focus a bit while apparently bored being at the back of the pack …” The San Felipe was the first career start the colt, my PDI #2 #4, made without blinkers. “I love the way he took dirt and settled well off the pace,” said trainer Bob Baffert replying to an emailed inquiry about Jaycito. “He will improve more next time.”
Dick Jerardi defuses angst about Uncle Mo’s so-so Timely Writer speed figure (DRF+): “It only went down that way because of the way the race was run, something that does happen in Beyer World, but not all that often.” [TT reports a Ragozin number of 4 for Uncle Mo, adjusted for the slow pace.]
Colin’s Ghost wonders whether a Triple Crown winner will appear again.
A potential rivalry? “Whether Premier Pegasus will be the one to push Uncle Mo and give us an incredible rivalry is open to debate,” writes Bob Ehalt. “Maybe he’s another Sunday Silence, or maybe he’s another Buzzards Bay.”
Churchill Downs could install the Trakus system in time for the spring meet, putting an end to the occasional Kentucky Derby chart error.
Toward One Two-Turn Prep
Trainers have grown bold in their experiments with prepping Kentucky Derby prospects over the past decade, but the tradition of contenders getting in at least two two-turn races as a 3-year-old has held steady. Since 2003, only 14 nine of 153 Derby prospects have started without two two-turn preps. That small group has hasn’t done well: Big Brown won in 2008 Hard Spun was second in 2007, Closing Argument second in 2005, and Lion Heart second in 2004. If early Derby fave Uncle Mo wins this year, he’ll not only be the fifth winner in five years to have two preps, firmly establishing that norm, he’ll be the second in five years to have won with a single two-turn sophomore start; a new trend. Never again will any contender so prepped seem so exceptional.
9:15 AM Corrections: Mea culpa! I published without fact-checking. Usually I take time to confirm things, to prevent embarrassing mistakes — like the ones above. There have been nine Derby starters since 2003 without two two-turn preps, and Big Brown is not only the sole winner, he’s the only one to finish ITM. Hard Spun prepped in the Southwest and Lane’s End; Closing Argument in the Holy Bull (then nine furlongs) and Blue Grass; Lion Heart in the San Rafael and Blue Grass. My thanks to commenter PTP for the tip that something was off with his observation that trainer Larry Jones is old school — he is indeed, and that his first Derby contender would be unconventionally prepped is something about which I should have questioned my memory.
Weekend Figures
Beyer speed figures of 89 for Uncle Mo, making his 3-year-old debut, in the Timely Writer at Gulfstream on Saturday; 83 for Watch Me Go, upset winner of the Tampa Bay Derby; 96 for Premier Pegasus in the San Felipe at Santa Anita; and 82 for Joyful Victory in the Honeybee Stakes at Oaklawn. The Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks prep schedules have been updated.
Get Used to It
Mike Repole, owner of Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty, on prepping for the Derby:
“Many of you guys are questioning ‘two Derby preps. Two Derby preps.’ I do my history: (the last four) Derby winners have had two Derby preps. I think that’s going to be the trend from now on.”
It’s the way of the future, in which trainers don’t feel constrained by the past.
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Jessica Chapel writes and edits in Massachusetts. Railbird is a Thoroughbred horse racing blog published from June 2004 to July 2019. More / Contact
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