JC / Railbird

Derby Prospects

Eskendereya Skips Work Out of Derby

9:25 AM Update: Eskendereya is out of the Kentucky Derby. “He’s got some filling. We’re not sure of the extent of what we’re dealing with. But he’s not going to run,” trainer Todd Pletcher said, describing the colt as “slightly off.” (Right: Pletcher, speaking to the media this morning at Churchill Downs. Photo credit: Reed Palmer Photography.)

What changes with this news? The filly Devil May Care seems more likely to enter, Jackson Bend has a real shot of making the field, and Lookin at Lucky takes over as expected post-time favorite.

10:00 AM: Bettors are already adjusting to Esky’s withdrawal: Eskendereya’s odds are drifting, Lookin at Lucky’s shortening (And at 11:00 AM, with Eskendereya out, Lookin at Lucky is 7-2, Sidney’s Candy 5-1.)

3:55 PM: Jennie Rees has reactions from Derby trainers: “My stomach right now hurts for them. I know what they’re going through. I know what Todd [Pletcher] is going through. You’re not safe until you put the saddle on and hear My Old Kentucky Home. ”

– – – – – 

No workout for Eskendereya this morning, and now the status of the likely Kentucky Derby favorite is uncertain.

On Saturday, Jay Privman of the Daily Racing Form reported there was evidence of “some issues” plaguing the colt:

Eskendereya had a workout planned for Saturday postponed because of wet weather, and while Eskendereya did have a routine gallop, there is at least circumstantial evidence that Pletcher is trying to nurse Eskendereya through some issues. After training hours on Saturday, every horse at Pletcher’s barn who was walking the shed row had their training bandages removed except for Eskendereya. This follows a postponed final prep, from the Florida Derby to the Wood Memorial two weeks later, and the addition of front bandages for the Wood Memorial.

Earlier this morning, there was some doubt about whether he would work today. From Ron Mitchell of the Blood-Horse:

Meanwhile, shortly after 6 a.m. Sunday, trainer Todd Pletcher said he was undecided about whether Derby favorite Eskendereya and Derby possible starter Interactif would breeze following the maintenance break.

“I am going to watch a couple of sets and see,” Pletcher said. “It’s pretty hard right now.”

Minutes ago, Ed DeRosa of Thoroughbred Times, at Churchill Downs, tweeted:

Eskendereya did not go to track. #KYDerby participation in serious doubt.

Developing …

Posted in Racing on April 25, 2010 / Tagged Churchill Downs, Derby Prospects, Eskendereya, Kentucky Derby, Workouts / Comments Off on Eskendereya Skips Work Out of Derby

Thursday Notes

Since Odysseus is now #3 on my Kentucky Derby top 10, it was with some relief that I read trainer Tom Albertrani plans to give the Tampa Bay Derby winner, not a seven-week layoff, but another prep before the Kentucky Derby:

We’re probably going to work him either Thursday or Friday, see how he is, and then make a choice between the Blue Grass or Arkansas Derby.

With Rule dropping to #7, largely due to his apparent inability to rate and subsequent third-place finish in the Florida Derby last Saturday, Eskendereya moves to #1. We’ll find out in the April 3 Wood Memorial, which drew 61 nominations (PDF), if the position is deserved.

PDI top 10 for 3/23/10: 1) Eskendereya 2) Lookin at Lucky 3) Odysseus 4) Dublin 5) Sidney’s Candy 6) Caracortado 7) Rule 8) Awesome Act 9) Discreetly Mine 10) Fast Alex Noble’s Promise

The Louisiana Derby is the most significant of three Derby preps scheduled this weekend. Thirteen are entered, including Risen Star winner Discreetly Mine. Not among the starters, intriguing allowance winner Fast Alex: The colt suffered a shin injury and “might be sidelined for a couple months.” (For more about this weekend’s races, sign up for the HRF Derby Prep Alert emails.)

In non-Derby news: David Milch’s “Luck” starts filming at Santa Anita on March 29. “Mr. Mann expressed a strong desire to shoot much of this pilot while we were running live.” The pilot is expected to air on HBO in early 2011.

Posted in Racing on March 25, 2010 / Tagged Derby Prospects, Kentucky Derby, Luck, Odysseus, Paulick Derby Index, Santa Anita / 2 comments

The Issue Is Timing

Owner Ahmed Zayat on why Eskendereya will start in the Wood Memorial next month, and not the Florida Derby this weekend:

“The main issue is timing,” Zayat said. “I’m not really comfortable off the six weeks. If I’m genuine about the Kentucky Derby, I need to give the prep I want to make sure he peaks on the right day.”

Also:

“I think the Wood is coming up a very tough race and I don’t mind that,” Zayat said. “I think this colt will win a Grade 1. Am I missing a Grade 1 [Florida Derby]? I think he’ll get more out of the Wood than the Florida Derby.”

Refreshing, hearing a high-profile connection with a top Kentucky Derby prospect putting an emphasis on prepping to win the race, not merely on getting to the gate. (Or is something else afoot? 3/18/10: No.)

Related: Mike Watchmaker approves of the move. “I have to say, I like it. A lot.”

3/18/10 Addendum: “Fool,” says Paulick.

Posted in Racing on March 17, 2010 / Tagged Ahmed Zayat, Derby Preps, Derby Prospects, Eskendereya, Kentucky Derby, Wood Memorial / Comments Off on The Issue Is Timing

Monday Notes

Derby prospects: The one move I made with confidence on this week’s PDI top 10 was bumping Tampa Bay Derby winner Odysseus from #8 to #3. That was an easy call after the colt, making his first graded stakes start, showed such gutsiness in surging late after falling back at the top of the stretch and looking well beaten. Tampa Bay Downs released the photo (via Twitter), which put Odysseus barely a nostril ahead of Schoolyard Dreams:

The gently-handled Rebel winner Lookin at Lucky makes his first appearance, while Dublin drops to #7. Drifting out in the stretch, he didn’t look like a horse who wanted more distance, but I’ll give the son of Afleet Alex one more race. Discreetly Mine drops off, but remains on the watch list, pending the Louisiana Derby. (View the 2010 prep schedule and results.)

Top 10: 1) Rule 2) Eskendereya 3) Odysseus 4) Lookin at Lucky 5) Sidney’s Candy 6) Caracortado 7) Dublin 8) Awesome Act 9) Radiohead 10) Fast Alex

Questions: Does Radiohead have a quarter crack? There’s a rumor … Will Odysseus start in the Kentucky Derby off a seven-week layoff? Trainer Tom Albertrani is considering the possibility …

Distaffers: 15-for-15 Zenyatta is still pointing to next month’s Apple Blossom Invitational, beaten-by-Zardana Rachel Alexandra is not. Beyer speed figures for the three: Zenyatta, 102; Zardana, 101; Rachel Alexandra, 100.

Elsewhere: Omnisurface Stars updates and the “Volcanic” NTRA.

Posted in Racing on March 15, 2010 / Tagged Derby Prospects, Kentucky Derby, Lookin at Lucky, Odysseus, Radiohead / Comments Off on Monday Notes