Dunkirk
Stunned, Blinkers Off visits the backstretch, seeking an explanation for a most inexplicable Derby result. After talking to trainer Todd Pletcher and Action Andy, our correspondent learns …
In the final analysis, either the Kentucky Derby, America’s greatest horse race, was deeply defiled, bought and sold for the sake of a fabricated, fly-by-night cable series, or somebody needs to call Andy Beyer and tell him he might want to revisit those New Mexico speed figures.
Noticed while skimming the Derby PPs, updating the historical criteria chart …
– Since 2002, every Derby winner has worked a bullet in their penultimate or final workout; since 1998, eight of 11 winners have done so. (Kennedy, helpfully, has real stats on this.) This year, six starters have bullet works: Friesan Fire, Regal Ransom, I Want Revenge, Atomic Rain, Dunkirk, and Summer Bird. The last time Friesan Fire worked a bullet was before winning the Louisiana Derby; Dunkirk has worked three straight bullets since the Florida Derby. The anti-bullet? Pioneerof the Nile: In his four works at Santa Anita listed on the pps, every one was the fastest or second-fastest at the distance. His two works at Churchill were fourth and eleventh, both at five furlongs.
– The game of musical jockeys continued through Tuesday, ending with 10 rider changes — seven of those new pairings: Chocolate Candy (Mike Smith), Desert Party (Ramon Dominguez), General Quarters (Julien Leparoux), Mine That Bird (Calvin Borel), Mr. Hot Stuff (John Velazquez), Nowhere to Hide (Shaun Bridgmohan), Flying Private (Robby Albarado). That’s the most since 2003, when six horses, all longshots, went to the post with new riders. Between 2003-2008, 22 horses, none at final odds of less than 10-1, started with new riders on Derby day. Of those, none won, and only two — Bluegrass Cat, second in 2006, and Imperialism, third in 2004 — finished in the money.
– Few changes to the top 10 this week, with all adjustments in the second tier. Arkansas Derby winner Papa Clem, who’s been bumping around the lower third since February, moves to #6, replacing runner-up Old Fashioned, now off the Derby trail and likely done with racing due to a slab fracture of the knee. General Quarters appears at #8 following his win in the Blue Grass, making him the second to come out of the Tampa Bay Derby and take a stakes. I had trouble coming up with a tenth prospect, narrowing the possibles down to Chocolate Candy, Musket Man, and West Side Bernie, all on the cusp. Although Twitterverse sentiment was 4-to-1 for ‘Candy, I settled on Musket Man, who followed up on his Tampa win with another in last week’s Illinois Derby.
Top 10 for 4/14/09 PDI: 1. I Want Revenge 2. Quality Road 3. Pioneerof the Nile 4. Desert Party 5. Friesan Fire 6. Papa Clem 7. Dunkirk 8. General Quarters 9. Regal Ransom 10. Musket Man
– Chocolate Candy worked yesterday morning with new rider Mike Smith up, going five furlongs handily in :59.20 at Santa Anita. “I was happy with the work, said trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. Of course he was. Trainers are almost never quoted as anything but thrilled with their charges, especially three weeks before the biggest 3-year-old race of the year. The colt does look pretty good in this video of his Sunday move, though.
Dunkirk and Quality Road also worked over the weekend, with Dunkirk breezing four furlongs in :49.06 at Palm Meadows, and Quality Road doing the same in :48 at Belmont Park. He then galloped out five furlongs in 1:01.85 (according to DRF; Belmont clockers credited Quality’ with a five furlong breeze in 1:02.19). NYRA posted a short video of the work, showing the Jimmy Jerkens-trained colt going fine, apparently untroubled by the quarter crack found earlier in the week.
On the distaff side, watch mail brought notice that Music Note, third in her final 2008 start, the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Classic, is back in training. The 4-year-old filly breezed three furlongs in :37.40 at Keeneland on Saturday. No news yet on where she might debut this year. Possibly Belmont, in a race such as the June 13 G1 Ogden Phipps Handicap?
– It might be too early to start speculating on possible Derby pace scenarios, but with Old Fashioned and The Pamplemousse out, who goes to the front? There’s not a lot of early speed among the remaining probables.
– BSFs: 99 101 (upgraded) for Papa Clem, 95 for General Quarters.
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