Frankel
“If They Had Polytrack We’d Have Been There”
Juddmonte racing manager Teddy Grimthorpe:
“Prince Khalid loves the Breeders’ Cup and we would love to take Frankel to Santa Anita, Bobby Frankel’s home town — the emotional ties would be fantastic.
“But unfortunately the right race is not there — we are not going to race him on dirt. It’s a pity, because if they had Polytrack we’d have been there.”
No dirt. Even a $5 million purse and sentiment aren’t enough.
Super Frankel
“I suppose steer is the word, isn’t it?,” Tom Queally said to Racing UK analyst Nick Luck after riding Frankel this afternoon to his 13th win in the Juddmonte International at York (replay link; no video embedding allowed). It was the first time Frankel went beyond a mile in what’s been a smashing three-season career (take a moment to relish that — we’ve been watching him since he was a juvenile), answering the distance question that’s dogged the unbeaten colt. Confirmed! With a handride! Frankel is more than a brilliant miler — in the Juddmonte, he proved that he can turn on the speed at 10 furlongs as easily as he does at eight. And what acceleration — he ran the “furlong … between three out and two out … in 11.05 seconds, which equates to 40.73mph.”
The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe or the Champion Stakes are reportedly both possibilities for his next start, which is expected to be his last. In whichever race he ends his career, Frankel will surely be remembered as one of the greats, even if — as Chris McGrath wrote before the Juddmonte, with the obligatory caveats about second-guessing a horseman with the stature of Sir Henry Cecil — we’ll likely never know his bottom:
Plenty of people at York today will claim they are looking at the greatest racehorse in history. Hitherto, however, the only measure of Frankel has been the increasing margins by which he has humiliated Excelebration. Yes, he finally tries something different today, partly because the race is sponsored by Khalid Abdullah, the Saudi prince who will be retiring Frankel to his Juddmonte Farms at the end of the season. But Cecil anticipates running him only once more, again on Champions’ Day. In which case, he will leave us without beginning to approach the limits of his potential.
I hope they confirm his final race soon enough to make travel plans. We might not get to see the limits of his potential, but I’d like to see him, once, live.
In Our Dreams
Failing that, how about Black Caviar down the hill and Frankel in the Mile at the Breeders’ Cup? I get that isn’t going to happen, but …
It would never happen — there’s no scenario in which it makes sense — but I would really enjoy watching Frankel on the downhill turf at Santa Anita.
R High Figure
As measured by the speed figure makers, the Kentucky Derby field may be “solid, competitive … and slow,” but there’s a dominant figure in the Oaks.
Speaking of figures …
“Frankel’s performance can only be described as awesome,” said the official BHA handicapper for milers, apparently as awed as everyone else watching Frankel cheerfully gut the field running behind him from the start in the 2000 Guineas (replay). “He destroyed the others, not himself,” said trainer Henry Cecil. At the end what impressed almost as much as the ease with which the undefeated colt won was how hard his rivals had to run to even keep him in view. Timeform gave Frankel a provisional rating of 142, the third best ever; the Racing Post rated him 133, the highest ever on that scale.
Guessing Game
Three weeks from the Kentucky Derby, and about all that’s safe to predict is that the winner won’t be predictable. With yesterday’s wins by 25-1 Archarcharch in the Arkansas Derby and 19-1 Brilliant Speed in the Blue Grass, the average win mutuel of the last four Grade 1 preps works out to $35.45. In the Arkansas Derby, if you had the ten-cent super, you cashed for almost $3000. In the Blue Grass, you signed for more than $6400. Jaycito, redirected to the Lexington after missing the Santa Anita Derby because of a foot problem, now sits on the Derby earnings bubble with $250,000, and jockey Corey Nakatani, second with Nehro at Oaklawn yesterday, has his choice of Derby mounts, but Calvin Borel has none. It’s anyone’s year.
The Factor was the latest favorite to falter. Taken out of his element from the start, out-hustled to the front by JP’s Gusto and Dance City, The Factor finished seventh as the 4-5 favorite in the Arkansas Derby. I didn’t think the colt was a nine-furlong horse, much less a 10-furlong one, but I expected he’d be a pace factor at Churchill and it was a shame to see how little he did when taken back. Trainer Bob Baffert said The Factor may have flipped his palate. (In which case, he’s out of the Derby? “We’re just going to see how he’s doing.” Just like that, Midnight Interlude becomes Baffert’s best chance.)
All the upsets along the Derby trail have left Dialed In, the only prospect one of only two prospects* to have won two graded preps this spring, as the most consistent of the bunch and the likely Kentucky Derby favorite. (“I mean, who else?” said Derby oddsmaker Mike Battaglia.) Forgive me if I’m not wild with enthusiasm about a horse who won the Florida Derby by a nose dueling a 68-1 shot and running a final eighth in more than 13 seconds. And there is the matter of how trainer Nick Zito plans to bring Dialed In to the Derby with only one workout between April 12 and May 7, done in seclusion at Palm Meadows.
“Pardon me for being a wee bit cynical and not buying it,” writes Jeremy Plonk. “The last time seclusion and serenity were used as reasons for staying at Palm Meadows, 2010 would-be Derby favorite Eskendereya turned up lame.”
Pure speculation about Dialed In, of course, just as it is that Uncle Mo, diagnosed with an intestinal infection after the Wood, is being treated with antibiotics and still not feeling so hot, based on a Facebook update:
I want to run in the Derby sooooo bad!! Uncle Todd and Uncle Mike said ONLY if I’m 100%! I know they have my best interests at heart. I’m taking my medicine (I hate the taste)!!! Uncle Todd says if I take it, he will let me go out and play with my friends. I galloped today, and felt great. I’m eating a lot but not as much as Uncle Todd and Uncle Mike would like.
Hm … I don’t know what I’m going to do with this week’s PDI top 10.
If there were any chance he’d ship to Churchill Downs, I’d make Frankel #1 off his glorious romp in the Greenham at Newbury at Saturday (replay). In his first start of the year, and only 80% according to trainer Henry Cecil, Frankel brought his undefeated record to five with the four-length win. He’ll start next in the Guineas in two weeks, the overwhelming favorite.
*Thanks to o_crunk for the correction. Archarcharch is the other dual graded prep winner headed to Churchill. I assume The Factor is no longer a Derby prospect, but if he were, he’d be the third to have won two graded preps.
8:20 PM Addendum: Apparently, The Factor is going to Kentucky. The Derby, maybe. Beyer speed figure of 98 for Archarcharch in the Arkansas Derby, 89 for the not-so Brilliant Speed in the Blue Grass.
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Jessica Chapel writes and edits in Massachusetts. Railbird is a Thoroughbred horse racing blog published from June 2004 to July 2019. More / Contact
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