JC / Railbird

Handicapping

Will Mo Have Mo?

Brad Free on the likely Champagne favorite (DRF+):

Uncle Mo might become a star. He might be a future footnote. Either way, handicappers should be aware that recent history suggests Uncle Mo is likely to regress Saturday in his second start. When a 2-year-old firster runs a triple-digit Beyer, it takes time to revitalize.

In the past 10 years, writes Free, 15 2YOs have run a triple-digit BSF in their debut. Only two improved on their figure in their next start.

Bob Ehalt’s Ragozin anaylsis runs to a similar conclusion: “Weighing all of those possibilities, Uncle Mo seems more likely to regress than advance …”

10/9/10 Update: Question answered. Uncle Mo dominated the G1 Champagne Stakes at Belmont today, winning the one-mile race by open lengths in 1:34.51 after being pressed through a half in :45.92 by I’m Steppin’ It up:

Said trainer Todd Pletcher after, “He’s obviously a very fast and talented horse and it looked as if he was doing it easily.” Uncle Mo will ship to Churchill Downs on October 26 for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

Beyer speed figures, via @andyserling: 94 for Uncle Mo in the Champagne Stakes, 81 for AZ Warrior in the Frizette Stakes.

Posted in Racing on October 8, 2010 / Tagged Belmont Park, Buzz Babies, Champagne Stakes, Handicapping, Juveniles, Speed Figures, Uncle Mo

Blinkers On

Mike Watchmaker, post-Derby (DRF+ sub req):

Finally, nothing I saw in this Derby made me want to change my mind that horses who have raced exclusively on synthetic tracks aren’t at a disadvantage when they race on dirt for the first time in the Derby.

This is being close-minded to the point of ridiculousness. Only one horse started in this year’s Kentucky Derby having raced exclusively over synthetic surfaces — Sidney’s Candy — and his 17th place finish had everything to do with pace, post position, and preferred running style.

Posted in Racing on May 4, 2010 / Tagged Fixed Thinking, Handicapping, Kentucky Derby, Persistent Beliefs, Synthetic Surfaces

Hello!

Congratulations to Dana and Adam on the launch of Hello Race Fans, a new kind of fan education site for racing. I’m a contributor, but even if I weren’t, I’d recommend checking out the Letter to a New Horseplayer collection (featuring several top turf writers and bloggers) or the first edition of the HRF Index.

Posted in Miscellany on March 30, 2010 / Tagged Fan Education, Fan Initiatives, Friends, Handicapping, Hello Race Fans