JC / Railbird

Historical Criteria

Updated for 2011

… the prep and historical criteria Kentucky Derby spreadsheet.

Those considering betting Dialed In, the 4-1 morning line favorite, might want to take note that he and Decisive Moment are the the only two Derby starters who have not earned their best Beyer speed figures at a distance of 1 1/16 miles or longer (putting aside Master of Hounds, who has one US start and speed figure in his seven-race career). Going back to 1998, no horse has won the Derby without a best BSF at that distance or longer, and only three of 27 starters who didn’t have a best BSF at 1 1/16+ even finished in the money (a number that includes the filly Eight Belles).

Posted in Racing on May 5, 2011 / Tagged Derby Handicapping, Derby Prospects, Historical Criteria, Kentucky Derby, Spreadsheets

The Return of Dublin

Dublin, dropped from my PDI top 10 after the Arkansas Derby, returns this week at #1, a move driven by Eskendereya’s withdrawal from the race and a few hours with the past performances. Last week, when the field was looking set, I was intent on figuring out who would run behind Eskendereya — I know, I should feel more embarrassed to admit that. Every wise guy out there has been complaining about how with the loss of Esky, all the odds on the horses they were really planning to play have plunged. Whatever. The colt had the two best Beyer speed figures of this bunch, a perfect prep season, a fitting pedigree. He’s also physically impressive — watching at Aqueduct on Wood Day, I was struck by how much more mature and robust he looked than the other starters (check out his chest and shoulders in this photo by Sarah K. Andrew). Watching the Wood replay, what grabbed my attention was how much he reminded me of Big Brown (and I wasn’t even a Big Brown fan), exhibiting a similar control and ease as he took the lead and drew away. I was going to bet the chalk on Saturday, and happily.

As for Dublin, I still have some concerns he won’t relish the Derby distance, but then, ten furlongs seem questionable for several of this year’s expected starters, who, for the most part, haven’t made much of an impression on me. His track work this weekend could also suggest problems: After attempting to bolt during a Saturday gallop, Dublin drifted out around the final turn in his Sunday work. What’s more, DRF clocker Mike Welsch noted, “the failure to gallop out with any serious energy cannot be taken as positive signs less than one week out from the big event.” A factor in his favor, though, is the relative toughness of the Oaklawn preps, in which Dublin ran well. Off a second in the Southwest, a third in the Rebel, and a fast-closing third in the Arkansas Derby,* he could be poised to move forward.

Devil May Care, coming into the Derby with a competitive profile and a slightly faster time in G2 Bonnie Miss Stakes than Ice Box in the G1 Florida Derby on the same day, moves to #2 and Sidney’s Candy to #3. Lookin at Lucky remains at #4, despite his exceptional qualities. I would rate him higher, but for his tendency to find trouble, and he’s only had two preps this year. There’s also the matter of blinkers-on, blinkers-off: Trainer Bob Baffert is still trying to figure out the colt, and he’s running out of time. But then, the new Derby favorite worked brilliantly this morning. (Trying to sort it all out this evening, Bill Finley’s see-no-works, hear-no-works approach to Derby week suddenly seems a very sensible one.)

PDI top 10 for 4/27/10: 1) Dublin 2) Devil May Care 3) Sidney’s Candy 4) Lookin at Lucky 5) Endorsement 6) Awesome Act 7) Jackson Bend 8) American Lion 9) Discreetly Mine 10) Stately Victor

Call it the Twerby? The 2009 Derby was the first in which Twitter played a real role, even if it was mostly to inspire an ongoing debate about the usefulness of the service. This year, however, Twitter has been a source of fast-changing news (see Ed DeRosa’s tweets Sunday on Eskendereya skipping work, doubtful for the Derby, out of the Derby), close-ups of contenders (see Frances J. Karon’s pictures of Dublin and Devil May Care), as well as workout times. Thanks to Dana Byerly of Green But Game for pointing out this Blood-Horse article on Monday’s Derby works, which cites tweets from Churchill’s media department. Observed Vic Zast, by tweet of course,

Not amazing that Esky out of Derby. Favs can drop out in last week. What’s amazing is how fast social networking sites passed news along.

How much a scene can change in just a year, and for the better.

*I was asked last week about column 15, “Key Derby Preps,” on the historical criteria spreadsheet. The numbers that appear there are simply how many such races a horse started in while prepping. Qualifying races were determined by the total number of Derby starters that emerged from each race, as well as the total number that finished ITM in the Derby, 1998-2008. A dozen races rated highly on both counts. It’s a quick measure of contenders’ preps, based on recent trends. Kevin Martin of Colin’s Ghost has done much deeper research on Derby preps: I recommend his work for more insight into using historical trends for judging prep races.

Posted in Racing on April 26, 2010 / Tagged Data, Derby Prospects, Derby Works, Dublin, Eskendereya, Historical Criteria, Kentucky Derby, Lookin at Lucky, Paulick Derby Index, Prep Races, Social Media, Spreadsheets, Twitter

For Reference

Historical and popular handicapping criteria, applied to the top 22 Kentucky Derby prospects, listed according to graded stakes earnings. The spreadsheet includes the complete 2003-2008 Derby fields and the top three finishers 1998-2008 for reference, and will be updated once more during Derby week, after all workouts are done and post positions have been drawn. Note: This year I’ve added two columns, one for “Started on dirt,” another for “Won on dirt,” for those concerned about the surface factor.

Any questions or suggestions? Please let me know in the comments (thanks for asking about when this would be up, Jeff). I’ll be returning to the spreadsheet, stats, and Derby handicapping next week.

4/21/09 Addition: Geno at Equispace has also been hard at work compiling data, and has posted a thorough spreadsheet that includes Beyer speed figures and dosage for the top Derby prospects.

Posted in Racing on April 20, 2009 / Tagged Chart, Data, Derby Prospects, Historical Criteria, Kentucky Derby