JC / Railbird

Horse of the Year

Rachel Alexandra Retired

Oh, hell. Yesterday, she worked a bullet four furlongs in :48.45 in possible preparation for the Beldame Stakes. Today, owner Jess Jackson announced reigning HOTY Rachel Alexandra has been retired. From the press release:

“As you know, despite top training and a patient campaign, Rachel Alexandra did not return to her 2009 form. I believe it’s time to retire our Champion and reward her with a less stressful life. We are delighted that she will retire healthy and happy to our beautiful farm in Kentucky.

“Rachel Alexandra owes us nothing. As a 3-year-old, she set standards and records that no filly before her ever achieved. And I suspect it will be quite a while before a three year old filly ever equals or surpasses her achievements. Although her fans were thrilled by a series of spectacular victories, I believe they, as we, were simply awed time and again by her sheer beauty, courage and athleticism,” said Jess Jackson….

“I have been blessed to have been part of history. We are all very fortunate that Rachel carried the banner following Curlin’s amazing success story. The fans adored her, we all did, “ said Steve Asmussen. “She had the most fluid and beautiful stride of any horse I have every seen. It’s been quite a ride.”

Rachel Alexandra exits with a career record of 19-13-5-0 and earnings of more than $3.5 million. If I were an 8-year-old girl, I’d add, and my heart … but I’m too grown-up for that kind of silliness. (How I’ll always remember her.)

5:00 PM Update: A statement from NTRA president Alex Waldrop:

“Rachel Alexandra waged a three-year-old campaign that was nothing short of historic — both for its flawlessness and its ambition. We commend all those who played such a large part in her greatness, most notably co-owners Jess Jackson and Harold McCormick, trainer Steve Asmussen and jockey Calvin Borel. Rachel Alexandra provided countless thrills to fans all around the world, and all of us now undoubtedly look forward to the racing exploits of her offspring.”

Jackson said that Rachel would be bred to 2007-08 Horse of the Year Curlin.

On Flickr: A gallery of Rachel Alexandra photos.

From Equineline: Lifetime past performances.

6:00 PM Update: The Fair Grounds has renamed a stakes race for Rachel Alexandra. “She is one of the all-time legends not only of Fair Grounds but of our sport,” said Fair Grounds VP Eric Halstrom, explaining the decision to change the name of the Silverbulletday Stakes, a prep for the Fair Grounds Oaks, to the Rachel Alexandra Stakes.

On Youtube: A video playlist including the Personal Ensign, Woodward, Haskell, Preakness, Kentucky Oaks, and her maiden win (or watch below).

From the archives: Rachel Alexandra in Vogue.

An appreciation: Rachel fans, unconditionally (Ernie Munick).

More reactions: ‘R’ is for Rachel, and retirement (That’s Amore) … On the occasion of Rachel Alexandra’s retirement (Superfecta) … What I think about Rachel’s retirement (Jason Shandler).

Posted in Racing on September 28, 2010 / Tagged Champions, Distaffers, Favorites, Horse of the Year, Rachel Alexandra, Retirement

Ho-Hum Doesn’t Earn HOTY

Bill Dwyre:

For Zenyatta, racing’s Queen Mother, the campaign to avenge her only defeat continues Saturday at Del Mar.

If that were true, she would start in the August 28 Pacific Classic at Del Mar, or possibly, the August 29 Personal Ensign at Saratoga. Instead, she’s entered today in the Clement Hirsch, “a race she has already won 42 times. Yawn.”

Buzz babies updates: Maiden winner Wickedly Perfect took advantage of a hot pace duel between Final Mesa and Dawnie Macho to score the G3 Sorrento Stakes at Del Mar on Friday. The pacesetters, who zipped through early fractions of :21.89 and :44.90, finished sixth and seventh.

Posted in Racing on August 7, 2010 / Tagged Buzz Babies, Del Mar, Horse of the Year, Juveniles, Sorrento Stakes, Zenyatta

Returning Champions

March 30, 2019 Update: Hello, and thanks for visiting. If you’ve landed on this page via Horse Racing Datasets, or after reading “The Skeptical Handicapper,” by Barry Meadow, please note that while the post below was published in 2010, the spreadsheets referred to have been updated through 2017. You can view the current Google Doc or download an Excel file.

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Noting that Kelso went to post as the favorite in four out of five of his returns as reigning Horse of the Year, commenter o_crunk remarked:

It makes me wonder if returning champions who go off favored in their return beat the average win percentage of favorites?

It turns out that, yes, favored returning champions do beat the average.

Champions from 1971-2008 (excluding steeplechase horses) made 210 first starts back the year after being honored, going to post favored in 177 of those races (84%) and winning 105 times (59%), a rate well above the standard 33.3% (or the 2009 average of 36.6%) As usual, the public is astute: All returning champions averaged odds of .97-1, but favored returning champions averaged odds of .68-1. Betting $2 to win on each favored champion would have returned $321.10 $285 to $354 wagered.

(View the spreadsheet/download the spreadsheet.)

A few observations based on quick analysis:

Thirty-nine champions returned in ALW/AOC company, winning 26 (66%) of those races. No champion not favored — with the exception of 2008 juvenile champion Midshipman, returning in a 2009 Belmont AOC — won at this level.

Fifty-two champions returned in ungraded stakes, winning 30 (57%) at average odds of .84-1. Only two, out of five, not favored won, but betting $2 to win on those five would have returned $13.20 to $10 wagered.

Most champions returned in graded stakes, winning 49 (41%) of 119 starts. Of the 98 that were favored, 44 won (45%) at average odds of .80-1.

Including Rachel Alexandra, returning Horses of the Year since 1971 (see chart below) made 20 starts. Favored in 19 races, they won 15 (79%) at average odds of .40-1. Betting only favored HOTYs would have returned $41.40* for $38.

*Only with a little luck would a player be on the plus side. John Henry, the highest-priced favored returning Horse of the Year, finished second in the 1982 Santa Anita Handicap and was bumped to first by the disqualification of Perrault. If the results had stood, favored come-back HOTYs would have won 14 (74%) out of 19 starts and returned $36.80 for $38.

Posted in Racing on March 22, 2010 / Tagged Betting, Champions, Favorites, First Starts, Horse of the Year, Racing History, Statistics