JC / Railbird

Jockeys

Derby Eve Notes

– First, of course: Rachel Alexandra. Winner of the Oaks by a record 20 1/4 lengths, all while looking like she was out for a jog. “Breathtaking,” “one-of-a-kind freak,” “wow, wow, wow,” and possibly “the most dominating victory in a major race since Secretariat’s Belmont Stakes,” were just a few of the immediate reactions. Magnificent, I’ll add. Awesome. A final eighth in :12.16, a final three furlongs in :37.06, all without jockey Calvin Borel moving. Not a shake of the reins, not a flick of the whip, urged her to that beautiful widening lead down the Churchill stretch.

In the April 18 issue of the Thoroughbred Times, an excerpt from Regret’s 1934 obituary appeared on the final page. Regret was the first filly to win the Kentucky Derby; Rachel Alexandra looked every bit like she could have become the fourth. “Peerless Regret she was hailed and peerless she undoubtedly was,” recalled the writer, “and to this day we have never been able to think of her without that descriptive adjective affixed.” It is now affixed to Rachel Alexandra, wherever her career takes the filly.

– Props to announcer Mark Johnson for making the most of what could have been a bland call and deftly incorporating Borel’s stretch mugging into his patter with impeccable timing: “Borel looks over his right shoulder, no danger!,” he says as the rider’s head ducks. “Over his left shoulder, no danger!”

– Derby picks: Instead of adding to the glut, I’ll point to this page, on which can be found a surfeit of sharp handicapping, selections, analysis, etc. After taking a first pass through the Derby past performances, I landed on Friesan Fire, who I’d previously dismissed except as an exotic possibility, due to the seven week layoff and the lack of a nine furlong prep. I see I wasn’t the only convert — several of the contributors to the HRI Media Poll tabbed him on top, and the Larry Jones trainee is the 9-2 favorite in early Derby wagering. Except — now, I’ve taken a second pass and while Friesan Fire strikes me as a must-use horse, I’m not so confident he’s a winner. (That layoff!) What will I do on Saturday? I’m not sure yet … but I will be using Friesan Fire, Regal Ransom, and Dunkirk as A horses; Papa Clem, Desert Party, and I Want Revenge as B horses; Musket Man, Mr. Hot Stuff, and Pioneerof the Nile as C horses. Yes, that’s right … I’ve narrowed the Derby down to nine horses.

– In the second installment of the Blinkers Off chronicles, our special correspondent wades into the sea of humanity that is the Oaks crowd.

– Just a lovely piece of writing: The legend tutors the rookie in Derby riding. “‘An option will open for you,’ the legend tells the rookie … ‘Wait for it. Wait for it to appear. If you move early, you’ll pay the price.'”

Posted in Racing on May 2, 2009 / Tagged Blinkers Off, Churchill Downs, Jockeys, Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Oaks, Rachel Alexandra

Trivia

Noticed while skimming the Derby PPs, updating the historical criteria chart …

– Since 2002, every Derby winner has worked a bullet in their penultimate or final workout; since 1998, eight of 11 winners have done so. (Kennedy, helpfully, has real stats on this.) This year, six starters have bullet works: Friesan Fire, Regal Ransom, I Want Revenge, Atomic Rain, Dunkirk, and Summer Bird. The last time Friesan Fire worked a bullet was before winning the Louisiana Derby; Dunkirk has worked three straight bullets since the Florida Derby. The anti-bullet? Pioneerof the Nile: In his four works at Santa Anita listed on the pps, every one was the fastest or second-fastest at the distance. His two works at Churchill were fourth and eleventh, both at five furlongs.

– The game of musical jockeys continued through Tuesday, ending with 10 rider changes — seven of those new pairings: Chocolate Candy (Mike Smith), Desert Party (Ramon Dominguez), General Quarters (Julien Leparoux), Mine That Bird (Calvin Borel), Mr. Hot Stuff (John Velazquez), Nowhere to Hide (Shaun Bridgmohan), Flying Private (Robby Albarado). That’s the most since 2003, when six horses, all longshots, went to the post with new riders. Between 2003-2008, 22 horses, none at final odds of less than 10-1, started with new riders on Derby day. Of those, none won, and only two — Bluegrass Cat, second in 2006, and Imperialism, third in 2004 — finished in the money.

Posted in Racing on April 29, 2009 / Tagged Dunkirk, Friesan Fire, Jockeys, Kentucky Derby, Pioneerof the Nile, Statistics, Trivia

Briefly

– Discuss: Jockey Garrett Gomez chose to ride multiple graded stakes-winning Pioneerof the Nile in the Kentucky Derby over stakes-placed Dunkirk. Did he make the right call? “No,” says Bill Finley, Dunkirk is the better horse. “Yes,” says Jon White, PotN might sweep the Triple Crown. Now, this is the sort of debate it’s fun to have Derby season …

– Steve Davidowitz makes a point in his latest Trackmaster column worth repeating: “Isn’t it clear by now that horses that have run well — or reasonably well — on the synthetic surfaces in southern California have run just as well if not better on good ole plain dirt?” I can think of a few reasons a handicapper might decide to dismiss the Derby contenders, even Pioneerof the Nile, who have campaigned primarily over synthetics, but the surface isn’t a sound one, at least, not yet. There’s too little data, and what there is, points to the synth-to-dirt move as not being an automatic negative.

– Love this little detail in a Los Angeles Times article about Rafael Bejarano’s SoCal success: “Bejarano is so in demand that Saturday, on the 10-race California Gold Rush program, he will have a mount in all 10 races.” The Saturday following, Bejarano will be at Churchill to ride Papa Clem, whose Derby credentials seem more solid the more I consider him.

– Unlike Desert Party … Godolphin announced today that Alan Garcia will remain on Regal Ransom and that Ramon Dominguez will ride Desert Party for the first time next week, which doesn’t inspire confidence in this fan. (Not because Dominguez isn’t a fine jockey, but why no Frankie Dettori? There’s also the matter of Desert Party’s first work at Churchill, which was solid, but not so good as his stablemate’s on the same day.)

– Forget about looking for Kentucky Derby picks who have proved they can come home in less than :38 seconds in a nine-furlong prep. According to the Downey Profile, every likely contender who finished first or second in a prep race ran the final three furlongs in that time or better. What’s more, two-thirds of likely starters did so in better than :37 seconds. This really will be a competitive Derby. (Via The Rail, recently returned.)

Posted in Racing on April 23, 2009 / Tagged Derby Prospects, Jockeys, Kentucky Derby, Speed, Steve Davidowitz, Synthetics