Juveniles
Saratoga Dark Day #1
Four days down, 36 to go, and Bill Mott has emerged as the early leader in the race for this year’s trainer title. Hott Mott’s won six races from 13 starts so far and only one of his winners — My Friend Keith in Monday’s finale — was a favorite. His horses have finished second or third in four other races. DRF Formulator calculates his ROI at $7.79. That can’t last! Including the first days of Saratoga ’15, Mott’s win rate is 16% and his ROI $1.44 for all starters over the past five years. His elevated numbers opening weekend partially come from an unexpected source — Mott won with two juvenile first-time starters, both in 1 1/16 mile maiden special weights on the turf. Saturday’s winner, Site Read, was 21-1. Sunday’s winner, Sage Hall, 12-1. Mott’s third debuting 2-year-old starter, Rebelle, finished second to Sage Hall, a $258 exacta.
Who else is winning, at least in the meet’s first few juvenile races? Trainer Todd Pletcher’s tied with Mott for two wins, thanks to the disqualification of Magna Light from first in the Sanford Stakes after he veered out in deep stretch when rider Jose Ortiz struck him on the left and then veered back in when struck on the right. Magna Light was bumped to third, runner-up Uncle Vinny to first, and Percolator moved to second. I’m a little sore about the DQ, so instead of ranting, I’ll point to David Grening’s quick (and paywalled) take:
In my opinion, this is a terrible call.
Magna Light was well clear of the rest of the field and while he acted dramatically from the whip of Ortiz he did not bother anybody or cost them the race. He did come back over and got next to Percolator but I don’t think he bothered him. Carmouche never stopped riding.
Carmouche didn’t stop riding, Percolator didn’t break stride (the action begins in the replay at 1:03). The stewards saw it differently:
Kendrick Carmouche, the rider of #10 Percolator, lodged an objection against the winner, #4 Magna Light, for alleged interference in stretch. #4 Magna Light racing on the lead shifts out several paths after passing the 1/8 pole. #10 steadies briefly though #4 is clear when crossing. #4 then drifts back down toward the #10 in the final strides causing #4 to steady. #4 finishes third, beaten a half-length for second.
[SIC] on the final two instances in the above paragraph where the stewards mistype #4 for #10. “More significantly,” writes Tom Noonan:
… is that there is no explanation for their decision. Was it the first move by Magna Light that was the problem, or was it the second? Did it affect the outcome of the race, or was he being penalized for interference even though it did not affect the final result?
Magna Light’s owner, NYRA board member Michael Dubb, has filed an appeal of the disqualification, which he suggested was due to prejudice:
“There is a different set of standards in racing for Rudy Rodriguez,” Dubb … said standing next to his trainer outside the winner’s circle. “Maybe because he is Mexican. He is picked on. He is being held to a different set of standards in racing all together and is being treated unfairly. It’s not good, but it’s the world we live in.”
The New State Gaming Commission made Magna Light and Uncle Vinny co-winners of the Sanford on Monday while they consider Dubb’s appeal. “I don’t think he should be doing it — for the sport,” said Don Lucarelli, co-managing partner of Uncle Vinny owner Starlight Racing. The two could meet again in the Hopeful Stakes, closing weekend at Saratoga.
Steve Asmussen, Roderick Rodriguez, Barclay Tagg, and Rick Violette were the other trainers to win juvenile races during the first four days. Chad Brown finished second with both of his 2-year-old starters. If you’d like to dig more into the first eight juveniles races this meet, here’s a spreadsheet (XLS), which includes each starter and their trainer, jockey, sire, last race, etc.
Watch: Greenpointcrusader, second to Pletcher’s Saratoga Mischief in the fifth race on Saturday. It was the first start for this Dominick Schettino-trained Bernardini colt who’s a 1/2 to graded stakes winners Keyed Entry and Justin Phillip and a full brother to 2012 Holy Bull winner Algorithms. He seemed to figure out what he was being asked to do in the final sixteenth.
9/5/15 Update: Greenpointcrusader returned today to win a seven-furlong maiden special as the even-money favorite. Silvertown, fourth in the same July 25 race that Greenpointcrusader debuted in, finished second. The pair are among five who have returned from that July 25 maiden special, and while only Greenpointcrusader has come back a winner, the other four have finished in the money, with July 25 winner Saratoga Mischief running second to Del Mar shipper Exaggerator in the August 16 Saratoga Special and eight-place finisher Condominium second at 9-1 in an August 29 maiden special.
The spreadsheet for all Saratoga juvenile starters is current: Download the complete Excel file, or view (and filter) the Google spreadsheet.
Early Runners
How dominant is trainer Wesley Ward in Keeneland spring juvenile races?
When it comes to early season maiden races, Ward’s record is pretty close to off the charts. Since 2009, there have been 47 2-year-old maiden events at the Keeneland spring meet. Ward has had starters in 45 of them. He won 22 of them or 48.9 percent.
Incredible. I didn’t know until I read @DougieSal today, though, that trainer John Shirreffs was once a debut runner win machine:
… in the late 1990’s John Shirreffs was the most brilliant debut trainer in the land. In 1998 and 1999 he trained 24 first-time starters and a mind-boggling 14 of them won their debut and another four finished second. In those days, the Southern California circuit was unquestionably the toughest year-round circuit in horse racing, and Shirreffs won at a 58.3% clip with first-time starters and 75% of his debuters finished first or second.
His takeaway: Bet Cozmic One with caution, if you insist on doing it all.
One Fast Rose
Our Amazing Rose gets a Beyer speed figure of 91 for winning the fifth race on Thursday at Saratoga by 7 3/4 lengths. She went the five furlongs in :57.68, or .59 seconds faster than stablemate Corfu did winning the second. Both making their career debuts for trainer Todd Pletcher, of course. Watch the replay.
Pletcher Baby ROI
Everyone knows that trainer Todd Pletcher is dominant is Saratoga juvenile races, but he’s profitable, too, in certain scenarios: His five-year win stat for first-time starters in dirt sprint maiden special weights is 32%, with an ROI of $2.57. In the same conditions, restricted to state-breds, he’s 46%, with an ROI of $3.25. “Perhaps the time to take down a Pletcher juvenile firster is in maiden special weight turf routes,” writes Dan Illman, who pulled the preceding numbers from DRF Formulator. Good luck getting a big price in any circumstance, though: The longest juvenile shot Pletcher has won at Saratoga with in the past five years is Interactif, in the 2009 With Anticipation. He was 16-1 at post time. The only other Pletcher winner with double-digit odds was Lawn Man, in a 2012 six-furlong MSW. He was 10-1 going into the gate.
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Jessica Chapel writes and edits in Massachusetts. Railbird is a Thoroughbred horse racing blog published from June 2004 to July 2019. More / Contact
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