JC / Railbird

Kentucky Derby

Rosie’s Ride

This 60 Minutes segment on Rosie Napravnik may be the first coverage of the jockey (who’s riding Mylute in the Kentucky Derby) I’ve seen this spring that doesn’t remind me of Freddy Rumsen telling Don Draper that Peggy Olsen’s insight into the Belle Jolie campaign “was like watching a dog play the piano.”

Go ahead, joke, “There is a filly in the Derby. The thing is this one has two legs, not four.” Wonder, “Can a woman win the Kentucky Derby?” Say, “You can almost classify her as just ‘jockey,’ now.” Because Napravnik can ride: She’s 25, and she’s won the Kentucky Oaks and a Breeders’ Cup race within the last year. So far, in 2013, only Joel Rosario has won more races than Napravnik; only four other jockeys have won more money. And she has the right attitude:

“There still are owners and trainers that don’t want to ride a female. The only way that I deal with that is, you know, to try to beat that person in a race, beat that trainer or owner in a race.”

Napravnik might not be on the Derby winner this Saturday, but she’ll be on a Kentucky Derby winner before her career ends. Bet on it.

3:30 PM Addendum: Napravnik tells Byron King she’s pleased with how the 60 Minutes interview turned out: “They did an excellent job with it.”

Posted in Racing on April 29, 2013 / Tagged 60 Minutes, Jockeys, Kentucky Derby, Mad Men, Media, Rosie Napravnik, Women in Racing / Comments Off on Rosie’s Ride

A Bullish Derby Strategy

First, understand the race, then understand chance:

No. 5, Toro has learned the hard way the immutable, unmerciful truth of superfecta betting:

Only good horses reliably finish first or second, and only decent ones usually run third. But any half-wit critter with a post and a pulse can finish fourth.

This is why I rarely play the super, even for a dime.

Posted in Racing on April 25, 2013 / Tagged Betting, Exotics, Kentucky Derby, Strategy, Superfectas, Wagering / Comments Off on A Bullish Derby Strategy

In the Money

Courtesy Churchill Downs: Kentucky Derby trainer records 1898-2012 (PDF).

Among the stats included in the file linked above are most starts and most wins by trainer. Considering just currently active trainers, both lists are topped by D. Wayne Lukas, who’s had 45 starters and four wins in 31 years. Bob Baffert is second in wins, with three from 23 starters in 16 years. Those two are also the leaders with Derby starters finishing in the money — 35% of Baffert starters have hit the board, 22% of Lukas’ starters. Todd Pletcher is second to Lukas in total number of starters, with 31 in 12 years, but fourth, with 13%, when it comes to finishing in the money.

Pletcher will likely be first when it comes to number of starters in the 2013 — he has six possible contenders among the top 24 on the latest Derby points list (PDF). Baffert has three Derby points leaders, Lukas two.

Posted in Racing on April 21, 2013 / Tagged Churchill Downs, Derby Prospects, Kentucky Derby, Records, Statistics, Trainers / Comments Off on In the Money

Points and Preps

Twenty days and counting: Prep season is over, even if there are still two races on the calendar that offer small Kentucky Derby points (also good for the Kentucky Oaks, which is why Pure Fun will start in the Lexington). Here’s the full Kentucky Derby point race schedule, with charts, replays, and winning Beyer Speed figures, and the official list of Kentucky Derby prospects in order of points as of April 14 from Churchill Downs (PDF). Noted — not one of the top 23 on that list started in the 2012 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

Java’s War is #4 in points after winning the Blue Grass Stakes with a last to first move that seemed all the more impressive because he broke slowly from the gate (and not for the first time). “I wasn’t worried,” said trainer Ken McPeek after. “He’s not a horse that’s quick out of there.” If you like him for the Derby, you should be worried — it’s an unforgiving race. Jon White has his strikes (explained) — one of mine is that a horse can’t have a penchant for creating its own trouble. “[T]his colt can’t expect to spot 19 stronger Derby opponents a head start and still win,” observes Mike Watchmaker. “He’s not that good.”

Posted in Racing on April 15, 2013 / Tagged Derby Points, Derby Preps, Derby Prospects, Java's War, Kentucky Derby, Pure Fun / Comments Off on Points and Preps