JC / Railbird

Kentucky Derby

Media Notes

No big horse, no big storylines, and still NBC pulled in 16.5 million viewers for the Kentucky Derby. That’s the most since 1989, and seven million more than watched in 2000, the last year the Derby was broadcast on ABC. Year-round fans might find the show unwatchable (and the repellent Bravo Oaks coverage even more so), but the network must be doing something right — mixing horses with human interest stories, Al Roker, fashion, and giddy Glen Fullerton added up to excitement for a sizable audience. “You know, every single minute of it was entertaining,” wrote one TV critic, praising the network for making the Derby “accessible.” The network’s contract for the Kentucky Derby and Preakness is up this year, as is the ESPN/ABC contract for the Belmont Stakes. After five years on separate networks, will the Triple Crown return to one?

Dan Liebman has filed his last Blood-Horse column. According to the Paulick Report, the editor, a 15-year veteran of the magazine, was dismissed this week, his exit announced to staff with a cold email. Evan Hammonds, who was named digital editor last November, is now the executive editor for both print and web Blood-Horse products. Speculating from afar, merely as a reader and interested observer, the move seems a strong hint that Blood-Horse — which already leads the Thoroughbred Times and Daily Racing Form in such areas as web design and the use of RSS and the Twitter API — will be putting more emphasis on developing their online presence and digital products.

I only ever exchanged a few emails with Liebman, whom I wish well, and almost all were related to the National Turf Writers Association, which I expressed an interest in joining (and did apply for membership to) several years ago. The group wasn’t quite ready for bloggers back then, but it’s gratifying to see things change, and so swiftly. Over the past six years, the racing blogosphere has exploded, growing from a handful in 2004 (this little site was one of the first) to at least 130 active independent and media-affiliated blogs*, covering every angle of the game, in 2010. With that growth has come an acceptance of blogging as a legitimate medium and bloggers as legitimate turf writers, an acceptance that reached a new high last week, when — for the first time — an officer of the NTWA announced on Twitter that the group had accepted a new member, and that new member was an independent blogger. Congratulations to the NTWA on opening up to turf journalists working in new media, and to Brooklyn Backstretch on joining their ranks.

*And it’s not only blogs. As a friend emailed earlier today, referring to the recently launched Stride and ZATT, “I can’t believe there are TWO horse racing magazines. Magazines!” There may be fewer full-time turf writers and industry publications might be struggling, but we really are living in an era of plentiful racing content from an incredible range of sources.

Posted in Media on May 5, 2010 / Tagged Blogging, Blood-Horse, Broadcasts, Kentucky Derby, NBC, NTWA, Turf Writers, TV Ratings / 5 comments

Blinkers On

Mike Watchmaker, post-Derby (DRF+ sub req):

Finally, nothing I saw in this Derby made me want to change my mind that horses who have raced exclusively on synthetic tracks aren’t at a disadvantage when they race on dirt for the first time in the Derby.

This is being close-minded to the point of ridiculousness. Only one horse started in this year’s Kentucky Derby having raced exclusively over synthetic surfaces — Sidney’s Candy — and his 17th place finish had everything to do with pace, post position, and preferred running style.

Posted in Racing on May 4, 2010 / Tagged Fixed Thinking, Handicapping, Kentucky Derby, Persistent Beliefs, Synthetic Surfaces / 6 comments

The Borel Factor

Imagine the Derby winning rider on another horse, muses Jennie Rees:

Not to disparage the jockeys of the horses below, and maybe it wouldn’t apply at any other track, and maybe not any other race. (And in no way to take anything away from Super Saver’s big effort.)

But wouldn’t you want to know what kind of trips that Lookin At Lucky and Ice Box would have gotten if Calvin Borel had been aboard?

Both might have had better trips with Borel aboard, but would it have mattered for either? I briefly wrote about the Derby fractions yesterday; individual splits were ugly, final fractions lousy. It seems unlikely a rider change would have meant anything to Lookin at Lucky, “bumped two or three times” in the early going. After a troubled first in :25.84, the favorite did pick up the pace a little, running the second quarter in :24.11, the third in the same time, and the fourth in :24.62, but his final quarter was an unexciting :26.95. Whatever else happened, Lookin at Lucky didn’t have it yesterday — not losing ground at the start might have moved him up in the order of finish, but he wasn’t going to win. Ice Box is a little more interesting to consider: He ran every quarter but the first faster than the winner. You can’t begrudge trainer Nick Zito for wondering about what might have been, if the Florida Derby winner had only broken a bit more quickly and not been steadied twice in the stretch.

That Rees is even wondering about what could have been with Borel reflects how big a story is the rider this year: “Borel is the Derby king,” with his uncanny affinity for Churchill Downs. Blame the rider “for turning America’s great race into a rerun” with his rail-riding confidence. Call him “a man of destiny.” “He knows Churchill Downs better than anyone else,” and his “uncluttered mind seems to be an absolute gift in pressure situations.” After winning three times in four years, is there any chance the public will let Borel go to post in the 2011 Derby on a horse that’s more than 3-1?

How Super Saver prepped: Lightly. This year’s winner started in two preps (making him the fourth consecutive horse to win the Derby doing so — it’s time for me to concede such contenders must be taken seriously) and had only one work between the Arkansas Derby and Kentucky Derby:

Of the top five finishers, two came out of the Arkansas Derby (Super Saver, Noble’s Promise) and two (Paddy O’Prado, Make Music for Me) from the Blue Grass Stakes — a reminder that race still has some claim as a legitimate Derby prep, regardless of what handicappers think of the Polytrack era or its longshot winners.

5/3/10 Addendum: Somehow I missed Borel’s post-Derby prediction:

“I’m going to win the Triple Crown this year,” he declared.

Bold. But could this be the year?

Posted in Racing on May 2, 2010 / Tagged Calvin Borel, Churchill Downs, Derby Preps, Jockeys, Kentucky Derby, Super Saver / 1 comment

Derby 136 Notes

The winners: Congratulations to Calvin Borel, the first jockey to win the Kentucky Derby three times in four years, and to Todd Pletcher, who won his first Derby, putting an end to springtime stories about his double-digit string of losses. “It feels awfully good,” said Pletcher of his victory. Super Saver, one of the trainer’s four starters, finished 2 1/2 lengths in front of Ice Box, a neck in front of Paddy O’Prado, 1 1/4 lengths ahead of Make Music For Me (chart).

The tote: Early Kentucky Derby wagering, odd as it looked, was smart. With more than an hour to post, Marcus Hersh observed:

Super Saver is still 8-1 (Calvin Borel money, for the most part, one assumes) with Sidney’s Candy finally showing some movement, too, now at 9-1. Ice Box continues to be remarkably short, 10-1, but not so much as Paddy O’Prado, who is 11-1 despite having one career win — that having come on turf — and a distant seventh-place maiden finish in his lone dirt start.

Little changed over the next 60 minutes. At post time, odds ran from 6.30-31.60, headed by Lookin at Lucky, followed by Super Saver at 8-1. Discreetly Mine was the longest shot. The compressed range probably reflected bettors’ sense of a wide-open race and a belief that anything could happen (see: Backtalk, 23-1 or Homeboykris, 27-1), but the public still turned out to be a fairly accurate judge of contenders’ chances: Of the top four finishers, three were among the top seven betting choices, and five of the top seven picks finished in the top 10, with Lookin at Lucky running sixth, after a trip that had him squeezed out and shuffled back from the start, and the filly Devil May Care finishing 10th at 10-1. Sidney’s Candy, the third favorite at 9-1, finished 17th. (It couldn’t have helped that the colt was unnerved by the crowd — his body tense, ears back, head turning toward the spectacle — as he was being loaded into the gate. He was the picture of an unhappy horse.)

The times: Final time for the Derby was 2:04.45, the slowest since 1989, with splits of :22.63, :23.53, :24.72, :27.07, and :26.80. Conveyance, with Sidney’s Candy pressing, led the field through “ludicrous fractions“; the pace collapsed as anticipated. Super Saver was there to pick up with a fourth quarter of :26.22 and a final quarter of :26.55. Ice Box, though, appeared to be closing faster after clearing traffic twice, and he was, running the fourth quarter in :24.45 (the second fastest split, with only Make Music for Me, :24.01, quicker) and the final in :26.10 (the fastest). It’ll be interesting to see what the figure makers come up with, considering conditions and individual running lines.

The trip: Untroubled. Heading into the final turn, Borel has Super Saver perfectly positioned for the stretch run. They’re in the lead at the eighth pole:

5/2/10 Update: Beyer speed figures for the top three Kentucky Derby finishers: Super Saver, 104; Ice Box, 100; Paddy O’Prado, 100.

Posted in Racing on May 1, 2010 / Tagged Calvin Borel, Ice Box, Kentucky Derby, Paddy O'Prado, Super Saver, Todd Pletcher, Wagering / 2 comments