JC / Railbird

Kentucky Derby

Friday Notes

It’s back: I’ve updated the Kentucky Derby historical criteria spreadsheet with this year’s top 25 likely starters, by graded stakes earnings. Post positions and columns 1 and A-C will be updated after the field is drawn. Re: column 15, “key Derby preps” refers to the dozen races that have proven historically to be most significant for serious Kentucky Derby contenders. More on this factor (and how it’s changed, even in the last five years) next week.

On Wednesday, I had the pleasure of visiting two Manhattan OTBs with New York Times reporter Ariel Kaminer for a City Critic piece that will appear on Sunday. It’s her story, so I’ll refrain from saying anything about the day for now, but would like to thank @PreemieD for recommending the W. 72nd Street branch, which was “fancy” and modern, with marble floors and flat screen TVs, and mention that the Times is doing a Q&A on their City Room blog about “OTB, horse racing, betting — from off track or on — and anything else related to the sport of kings.” They’re taking questions and comments through the weekend, answers and replies to follow on Monday.

“Prado is hot,” I overheard a bettor say before the first race at Aqueduct on Wednesday. He knew what he was taking about: Edgar Prado won two that day (one after falling from his mount, who stumbled badly out of the gate, in the sixth) and then five on Thursday. The jockey took the third, the fifth, and swept the final three races on the card; the Prado Pick 3 paid $883.

Posted in Racing on April 23, 2010 / Tagged Aqueduct, Betting, Edgar Prado, Kentucky Derby, New York Times, NYC OTB, Spreadsheets / 2 comments

Thursday Notes

Since Odysseus is now #3 on my Kentucky Derby top 10, it was with some relief that I read trainer Tom Albertrani plans to give the Tampa Bay Derby winner, not a seven-week layoff, but another prep before the Kentucky Derby:

We’re probably going to work him either Thursday or Friday, see how he is, and then make a choice between the Blue Grass or Arkansas Derby.

With Rule dropping to #7, largely due to his apparent inability to rate and subsequent third-place finish in the Florida Derby last Saturday, Eskendereya moves to #1. We’ll find out in the April 3 Wood Memorial, which drew 61 nominations (PDF), if the position is deserved.

PDI top 10 for 3/23/10: 1) Eskendereya 2) Lookin at Lucky 3) Odysseus 4) Dublin 5) Sidney’s Candy 6) Caracortado 7) Rule 8) Awesome Act 9) Discreetly Mine 10) Fast Alex Noble’s Promise

The Louisiana Derby is the most significant of three Derby preps scheduled this weekend. Thirteen are entered, including Risen Star winner Discreetly Mine. Not among the starters, intriguing allowance winner Fast Alex: The colt suffered a shin injury and “might be sidelined for a couple months.” (For more about this weekend’s races, sign up for the HRF Derby Prep Alert emails.)

In non-Derby news: David Milch’s “Luck” starts filming at Santa Anita on March 29. “Mr. Mann expressed a strong desire to shoot much of this pilot while we were running live.” The pilot is expected to air on HBO in early 2011.

Posted in Racing on March 25, 2010 / Tagged Derby Prospects, Kentucky Derby, Luck, Odysseus, Paulick Derby Index, Santa Anita / 2 comments

The Issue Is Timing

Owner Ahmed Zayat on why Eskendereya will start in the Wood Memorial next month, and not the Florida Derby this weekend:

“The main issue is timing,” Zayat said. “I’m not really comfortable off the six weeks. If I’m genuine about the Kentucky Derby, I need to give the prep I want to make sure he peaks on the right day.”

Also:

“I think the Wood is coming up a very tough race and I don’t mind that,” Zayat said. “I think this colt will win a Grade 1. Am I missing a Grade 1 [Florida Derby]? I think he’ll get more out of the Wood than the Florida Derby.”

Refreshing, hearing a high-profile connection with a top Kentucky Derby prospect putting an emphasis on prepping to win the race, not merely on getting to the gate. (Or is something else afoot? 3/18/10: No.)

Related: Mike Watchmaker approves of the move. “I have to say, I like it. A lot.”

3/18/10 Addendum: “Fool,” says Paulick.

Posted in Racing on March 17, 2010 / Tagged Ahmed Zayat, Derby Preps, Derby Prospects, Eskendereya, Kentucky Derby, Wood Memorial / Comments Off on The Issue Is Timing

Monday Notes

Derby prospects: The one move I made with confidence on this week’s PDI top 10 was bumping Tampa Bay Derby winner Odysseus from #8 to #3. That was an easy call after the colt, making his first graded stakes start, showed such gutsiness in surging late after falling back at the top of the stretch and looking well beaten. Tampa Bay Downs released the photo (via Twitter), which put Odysseus barely a nostril ahead of Schoolyard Dreams:

The gently-handled Rebel winner Lookin at Lucky makes his first appearance, while Dublin drops to #7. Drifting out in the stretch, he didn’t look like a horse who wanted more distance, but I’ll give the son of Afleet Alex one more race. Discreetly Mine drops off, but remains on the watch list, pending the Louisiana Derby. (View the 2010 prep schedule and results.)

Top 10: 1) Rule 2) Eskendereya 3) Odysseus 4) Lookin at Lucky 5) Sidney’s Candy 6) Caracortado 7) Dublin 8) Awesome Act 9) Radiohead 10) Fast Alex

Questions: Does Radiohead have a quarter crack? There’s a rumor … Will Odysseus start in the Kentucky Derby off a seven-week layoff? Trainer Tom Albertrani is considering the possibility …

Distaffers: 15-for-15 Zenyatta is still pointing to next month’s Apple Blossom Invitational, beaten-by-Zardana Rachel Alexandra is not. Beyer speed figures for the three: Zenyatta, 102; Zardana, 101; Rachel Alexandra, 100.

Elsewhere: Omnisurface Stars updates and the “Volcanic” NTRA.

Posted in Racing on March 15, 2010 / Tagged Derby Prospects, Kentucky Derby, Lookin at Lucky, Odysseus, Radiohead / Comments Off on Monday Notes