JC / Railbird

Kentucky Derby

Trivia

Noticed while skimming the Derby PPs, updating the historical criteria chart …

– Since 2002, every Derby winner has worked a bullet in their penultimate or final workout; since 1998, eight of 11 winners have done so. (Kennedy, helpfully, has real stats on this.) This year, six starters have bullet works: Friesan Fire, Regal Ransom, I Want Revenge, Atomic Rain, Dunkirk, and Summer Bird. The last time Friesan Fire worked a bullet was before winning the Louisiana Derby; Dunkirk has worked three straight bullets since the Florida Derby. The anti-bullet? Pioneerof the Nile: In his four works at Santa Anita listed on the pps, every one was the fastest or second-fastest at the distance. His two works at Churchill were fourth and eleventh, both at five furlongs.

– The game of musical jockeys continued through Tuesday, ending with 10 rider changes — seven of those new pairings: Chocolate Candy (Mike Smith), Desert Party (Ramon Dominguez), General Quarters (Julien Leparoux), Mine That Bird (Calvin Borel), Mr. Hot Stuff (John Velazquez), Nowhere to Hide (Shaun Bridgmohan), Flying Private (Robby Albarado). That’s the most since 2003, when six horses, all longshots, went to the post with new riders. Between 2003-2008, 22 horses, none at final odds of less than 10-1, started with new riders on Derby day. Of those, none won, and only two — Bluegrass Cat, second in 2006, and Imperialism, third in 2004 — finished in the money.

Posted in Racing on April 29, 2009 / Tagged Dunkirk, Friesan Fire, Jockeys, Kentucky Derby, Pioneerof the Nile, Statistics, Trivia / 2 comments

Ready, Set, Handicap

Post positions for the 2009 Kentucky Derby:

Early impressions of the draw: All the trainers claim to be pleased, and I can see why — no one appears to be compromised by stall assignment. As for the morning line, I have no serious complaint, although 4-1 on Dunkirk seems a tad low — really, isn’t he more of an 8-1 shot? — and 30-1 on Regal Ransom a little high. Several horses, such as Atomic Rain and Nowhere to Hide, will almost certainly go to post higher than 50-1. (The Crist Blog line puts those two at 80-1 and 60-1 respectively.) I’m feeling a little cavalier, so I’m going to agree with Alan that I Want Revenge is an easy play against, especially if he’s anywhere near 3-1 at post. As impressive as he was in the Wood (and that was an extremely good performance), the New York-prepped contingent looks the weakest, with the spring’s key races all taking place points south and west. Before I commit myself to any (more) premature stands, though, I should probably take a look at the past performances — free from DRF and BRIS.

Posted in Racing on April 29, 2009 / Tagged Kentucky Derby, Morning Line, Post Positions / 2 comments

Almost There

I’m resolved to avoid over-handicapping the Derby this year (unlike every other year), so it was in a blithe spirit that I composed my final top 10 list, rearranged after Quality Road defected to reflect the horses I consider to have some combination of prepping and talent satisfactory enough to, if not win the roses, then finish in the money. No real surprises; both Desert Party and Regal Ransom move up on the strength of how they’re training at Churchill, Friesan Fire drops a spot due to the layoff. Doubts have crept in already about a couple on the list, though, and I do wonder about who I’ve overlooked, so a re-shuffling of top picks is certain after post positions are drawn Wednesday at noon, followed by a thorough study of the past performances.

Top 10 for 4/27/09 PDI: 1. Pioneerof the Nile 2. Desert Party 3. Regal Ransom 4. I Want Revenge 5. Friesan Fire 6. Papa Clem 7. Dunkirk 8.  Musket Man 9. General Quarters 10. Chocolate Candy (really, a tie with West Side Bernie)

The major workouts wrapped up Tuesday, with I Want Revenge breezing four furlongs in :47.20 at Churchill. Said Steve Haskin of the work:

He immediately broke off into his long, flowing stride, cornered beautifully, and cruised down the stretch with Talamo never moving his hands. Despite the ease of the work, he still came home his final eighth in :11 4/5, and again cut the corner sharply galloping out.

The colt is the picture of health and appears, like a number of contenders, to be coming up to the Derby in excellent shape.

Gary West, watching the same horse, had a more prosaic reaction: “It was a good work, no doubt about that, but it wasn’t the kind of move that grabs you by the lapels and says, ‘I’m going to win.'” Which matches up pretty well with Mike Welsch’s assessment: “Nothing, perhaps, that would separate him from the other top contenders in the Derby field, but solid enough to keep him at or near the top of that list.” Nice, then, nothing special, and a reminder to watch the training videos Churchill posts and not get too hung up on any one opinion while handicapping a race like the Derby.

Posted in Racing on April 28, 2009 / Tagged I Want Revenge, Kentucky Derby, Post Positions, Workouts / 2 comments

It’s Derby Time

But first, a bit about the Oaks (“Just another pretty race“? I prefer not to think so). Post positions for the race, which grew to eight starters, were drawn this morning, with 3-5 morning line favorite Rachel Alexandra landing in stall six, just to the outside of likely second-favorite Justwhistledixie. The rest of field: Tweeter (1), Be Fair (2), Stone Legacy (3), Gabby’s Golden Gal (4), Nan (7), Flying Spur (8).

Rachel Alexandra worked a flying four furlongs in :46.40, the fastest of 26 works at the distance, then galloped out six furlongs in 1:10.60 at Churchill on Monday. “I thought she went too fast, but Calvin swears she does that every time,” said trainer Hal Wiggins, who’d been looking for something more like :48. On an earlier post, Bill, an equine exercise physiologist, remarked that he has a theory explaining the spectacular breeze — “She was properly warmed up for the first time in her life.” I am not an equine exercise physiologist, so really can’t comment, but it does seem plausible that the 30-minute walk she took before working — due, sadly, to a training delay caused by a catastrophic collision — may have had an effect.

Whatever the reason, the work had DRF’s Mike Welsch gushing:

Rachel Alexandra’s final Oaks prep was one of the most eye-catching Derby Week drills witnessed here in recent memory…. The move was reminiscent of, if not even better than, Street Sense’s final Derby prep, right down to the presence of Borel in the saddle…. Rachel Alexandra has been a joy to watch training here all week, and off this work would have been my pick had she taken on the boys in the Derby.

If only she had been nominated to the Triple Crown … instead, she should run away with the Oaks, a prospect that gives me less a case of “Oaks Blues” than “complacent chalk syndrome.” Rachel Alexandra is an exciting sophomore; she’s on the path to 3-year-old filly champion honors. Eventually this year, she’ll meet competition — such as Zenyatta, making her first start of the year on the Oaks undercard in the Lousiville Distaff — that gives her something to do other than cruise down the stretch. It just won’t be in the Oaks.

In Derby news: Two defections, one major, one minor, both sensible. Amid the Twitter discussion regarding trainer Jimmy Jerkens’ decision to pull likely favorite Quality Road from the trail after his second quarter crack trickled blood following a Sunday gallop (“It’s not terribly bad; it’s just not right,” said the disappointed conditioner) Nick Kling pointed me to a column he wrote last year about horses who either never ran again or never returned to their previous form after the Derby. Pulling together data on 78 starters over four years, Kling found a startling percentage essentially ruined by the experience:

A staggering total of 14 came out of the race either never racing again, or starting just a handful of times, unable to regain anything resembling decent form. That is 18 percent of ALL horses who started in the race.

Considering just the horses who had zero, one, or two starts after the Derby, the rate came down to 12.8% — still pretty shocking — strongly suggesting that a Derby start can have a negative effect on an unqualified, under-prepared, or delicate horse, as many observers believe. Not that that’s going to keep a few connections from entering their horses — who realistically have no shot — on Wednesday.

Square Eddie would have been among that group in my handicapping, but the colt developed heat in his previously injured left shin this morning and has been ruled out. “We are extremely disappointed but at the same time extremely grateful that he’s sound,” said trainer Doug O’Neill. It worried me, after reading about Square Eddie’s seemingly rushed convalescence and then the two-week Lexington turnaround, that he’d be pulled up during the race because of a problem. Consider me grateful that he won’t be starting on Saturday.

Odds and ends: So that you don’t miss any Derby coverage, Saratoga Spa has helpfully put together a TV guide for the week. And pay attention to the weather: Rains and thunderstorms are possible through the weekend in the Louisville area. (By the way, did you know that Derby winners on an off track historically pay an average shorter price than those on fast?) New Churchill Downs track announcer Mark Johnson calls Pioneerof the Nile ugly:

I may get told off for this, because I’ve had one or two discussions with people who totally disagree with me, but I think that Pioneerof the Nile has got to be the ugliest horse in the field. It looks like a gawky teenager. It’s got a really thin tail, it looks as though it’s only got half the hair in the tail that it should. It’s got a really long neck and a really small head, and it looks like if it were a human being, it would be a really spotty teenager.

I didn’t notice, watching his Monday work — all I saw was an easy stride and peak form. I did catch, though, General Quarters’ odd gait — his right foreleg appears to have an eggbeater action, which Kerry of Thoroughbred Brief suggested could be because he “looks base narrow and/or toed in.” If ‘Quarters does win the Derby, as Billy Reed says he needs to, that would be another quality he shares with Seabiscuit. Finally, if you’re a New Yorker subscriber, or near a newsstand, check out the profile of trainer Larry Jones in this week’s issue. Also, the notice for a Brooklyn Derby party.

Posted in Racing on April 28, 2009 / Tagged General Quarters, Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Oaks, Quality Road, Rachel Alexandra, Square Eddie / 1 comment