JC / Railbird

Kentucky Derby

Derby Day 2017

Kentucky Derby card picks are now up on Hello Race Fans. I’m all alone on the grid with Thunder Snow, who’s 17-1 in the early wagering. Contenders coming out of the UAE Derby don’t have a great record at Churchill Downs, but I like his post, his running style, and even that Godolphin didn’t ship him from Newmarket until last Sunday. He’s also getting Lasix for the first time. Every Derby trainer says they’re confident in their horse(s), and Saeed Bin Suroor is no exception, telling the Racing Post:

“I am very excited,” said Bin Suroor. “I have been waiting for this moment for a very long time to bring a horse with a big chance to run in the greatest race in America.”

I was also thinking a bit about the UAE Derby and why form in it hasn’t successfully translated at Churchill in the past. It used to be an outlier, timing-wise, being six weeks before the Kentucky Derby. But everyone is getting pushed back now — the Sunland Derby (Hence) and Spiral Stakes (Fast and Accurate) are six weeks out, the Florida Derby (Always Dreaming) is five weeks, and the rest of the final preps, with the exception of the Arkansas Derby, are four weeks. Horses entering the Derby on two preps have also become more common. I suspect that in terms of fitness, the UAE Derby’s place on the schedule is no longer quite as detrimental to Derby chances.

Look, it’s the Derby, and as Eric Banks writes in the New York Times today:

… no Derby seems to come out exactly as they expected in advance, which is the one, somewhat counterintuitive lesson provided by repeat exposure, year after year.

There’s something about every Kentucky Derby result that surprises. Maybe the contender from Dubai can deliver a little shock this year.

Posted in Racing on May 6, 2017 / Tagged Derby Picks, Kentucky Derby, Thunder Snow, Triple Crown / Comments Off on Derby Day 2017

Niche Work

Dave Hill spends Kentucky Derby weekend with Las Vegas horseplayer Alan Denkenson and things take a poignant turn when the bets don’t come in:

“I’ve been having a bad year. I’m starting to entertain the possibility that I could really go broke,” Dink says, without a hint of sentimentality. “Then again, if I don’t go broke there’s a 50 percent chance that I’m going to turn 75 and be making $4 bets in the sportsbook like these other guys. I mean what else am I going to do? Waz can go into stocks, into finance. I can’t do anything else. I’m 62 years old and this is all I know.”

Posted in Racing on May 20, 2016 / Tagged Alan Denkenson, Betting, Handicapping, Kentucky Derby, Las Vegas / Comments Off on Niche Work

Respect

Turning into the stretch of the 2016 Kentucky Derby.

Nyquist earned a Beyer speed figure of 103 for winning the Kentucky Derby, the highest Beyer of his career; his TimeformUS speed figure came up 123. However you measure his performance on Saturday, it was a peak, and trainer Doug O’Neill looks like a pretty smart guy for bringing his Uncle Mo colt to Churchill Downs in condition to move forward off two prep races, only one of which was around two turns. I thought Nyquist would come up short for that very reason, especially if the early pace as as strong as projected.

Just like Ed DeRosa, though, running down what he got right and wrong about this year’s Derby, I have no regrets:

RIGHT: Nyquist was the best two-year-old and best three-year-old. This might sound like a funny brag considering I didn’t pick him to win the race, but at 2-to-1 keying a 14-to-1 exacta I have no regrets about opposing him on top because even if I had picked him to win I still wouldn’t have won anything on the race at that price with (my actual pick) Exaggerator second. But the respect for Nyquist’s talent was clearly there. I just gambled against it trumping the rest of the group.

WRONG: Picking against Nyquist. From a horseplayer perspective, it’s easy to forgive the pick against—especially considering how well Exaggerator ran—but the fact is everyone wants to pick the Derby winner, and I had my chance after having Nyquist on top all year.

The winner went to post at a price of 2.30 and paid $6.60 — Nyquist’s odds were the lowest for a favorite since Point Given in 2001, and lower than the odds of the three winning favorites since 2013 — Orb’s price was 5.40 that year, California Chrome’s 2.50 in 2014, and American Pharoah’s 2.90 in 2015.

Here are the incremental fractions for the Derby from the DRF chart:

View the official Equibase chart (PDF).

Danzing Candy hustled to the front and led the field through the first three quarters in times of :22.58, :45.72, and 1:10.40 before yielding his position to eventual third-place finisher Gun Runner and then Nyquist, who assumed the lead entering the stretch and wrapped up the 1 1/4 mile Derby in 2:01.31. He did run his final quarter three seconds slower than he did his first, but that he was in front at all is what’s impressive, as Mike Watchmaker points out:

He was the only true survivor of a Derby pace that completely fell apart, and Nyquist did much more than merely survive.

Every other horse involved in the Derby pace either collapsed, or out and out disintegrated. But not Nyquist. He kept on with dogged determination the way champions so often do, and he safely turned back a runner-up in Exaggerator who had this race set up for him …

Watch the replay:

Derby recaps: Now Nyquist has real respect as he sets out to exorcise a Triple Crown demon … Nyquist wins the Kentucky Derby … Nyquist answers call, reignites Triple Crown chase with Derby win … Nyquist stays perfect with Kentucky Derby victory. He ships to Pimlico on Monday for the Preakness.

Posted in Racing on May 8, 2016 / Tagged Kentucky Derby, Nyquist, Speed Figures / Comments Off on Respect

Derby 142

Picks for the Kentucky Derby card are up on Hello Race Fans. Today’s best bet — or, at least, the one horse almost no one wants to play against on the undercard — is Tepin in the Churchill Distaff Turf Mile. The 2015 Breeders’ Cup Mile winner is 3-for-3 so far this year and she’s looked nothing but indomitable. She may be the one certainty in a day of deep fields.

Nyquist is 2-1 in the early Kentucky Derby wagering, below his 3-1 morning line. Some handicappers may feel uneasy about the undefeated champion’s chances (I’m among them), but money on the favorite has been steady.

Posted in Racing on May 7, 2016 / Tagged Derby Picks, Kentucky Derby, Nyquist, Tepin / Comments Off on Derby 142