JC / Railbird

Kentucky Derby

Notes for 2009-04-13

– Few changes to the top 10 this week, with all adjustments in the second tier. Arkansas Derby winner Papa Clem, who’s been bumping around the lower third since February, moves to #6, replacing runner-up Old Fashioned, now off the Derby trail and likely done with racing due to a slab fracture of the knee. General Quarters appears at #8 following his win in the Blue Grass, making him the second to come out of the Tampa Bay Derby and take a stakes. I had trouble coming up with a tenth prospect, narrowing the possibles down to Chocolate Candy, Musket Man, and West Side Bernie, all on the cusp. Although Twitterverse sentiment was 4-to-1 for ‘Candy, I settled on Musket Man, who followed up on his Tampa win with another in last week’s Illinois Derby.

Top 10 for 4/14/09 PDI: 1. I Want Revenge 2. Quality Road 3. Pioneerof the Nile 4. Desert Party 5. Friesan Fire 6. Papa Clem 7. Dunkirk 8. General Quarters 9. Regal Ransom 10. Musket Man

– Chocolate Candy worked yesterday morning with new rider Mike Smith up, going five furlongs handily in :59.20 at Santa Anita. “I was happy with the work, said trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. Of course he was. Trainers are almost never quoted as anything but thrilled with their charges, especially three weeks before the biggest 3-year-old race of the year. The colt does look pretty good in this video of his Sunday move, though.

Dunkirk and Quality Road also worked over the weekend, with Dunkirk breezing four furlongs in :49.06 at Palm Meadows, and Quality Road doing the same in :48 at Belmont Park. He then galloped out five furlongs in 1:01.85 (according to DRF; Belmont clockers credited Quality’ with a five furlong breeze in 1:02.19). NYRA posted a short video of the work, showing the Jimmy Jerkens-trained colt going fine, apparently untroubled by the quarter crack found earlier in the week.

On the distaff side, watch mail brought notice that Music Note, third in her final 2008 start, the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Classic, is back in training. The 4-year-old filly breezed three furlongs in :37.40 at Keeneland on Saturday. No news yet on where she might debut this year. Possibly Belmont, in a race such as the June 13 G1 Ogden Phipps Handicap?

– It might be too early to start speculating on possible Derby pace scenarios, but with Old Fashioned and The Pamplemousse out, who goes to the front? There’s not a lot of early speed among the remaining probables.

– BSFs: 99 101 (upgraded) for Papa Clem, 95 for General Quarters.

Posted in Racing on April 13, 2009 / Tagged Chocolate Candy, Derby Prospects, Dunkirk, General Quarters, Kentucky Derby, Lists, Music Note, Old Fashioned, Papa Clem, Quality Road, Workouts / 3 comments

Shaping Up

Barring any surprises in the Arkansas Derby or Blue Grass Stakes, my list of top 10 Kentucky Derby prospects is pretty much settled (although adjustments are likely over the next three weeks to accommodate changes in status, hoof issues, training problems). I Want Revenge is now #1, moving up from #3, off his stupendous Wood Memorial win, which only grew more impressive watching the replay. Something I failed to notice during the race was that Joe Talamo doesn’t go to the whip at any point — after patiently guiding IWR down the backstretch, saving ground and not hustling to make up for the poor start, then splitting horses to get out of traffic coming into the stretch, Talamo handrides IWR to the wire. Amazing.

Quality Road drops to #2, a move I made before hearing the colt has a quarter crack, which is being treated by Ian McKinlay. Imperial Council drops off completely, while Terrain creeps into #10. We’ll see how the under-the-radar colt, third in the Louisiana Derby, does in the Blue Grass on Saturday.

Top 10 for 4/7/09 PDI: 1. I Want Revenge 2. Quality Road 3. Pioneerof the Nile 4. Desert Party 5. Old Fashioned 6. Friesan Fire 7. Dunkirk 8. Regal Ransom 9. Papa Clem 10. Terrain

How about Rachel Alexandra in the Fantasy Stakes? The embodiment of easy:

Calvin Borel starts mugging on the backstretch, but I can’t blame him. She’s just galloping, the other four fillies totally at her mercy, lolling through unhurried fractions to a final time of 1:43.35, finishing more than eight lengths ahead of Afleet Deceit. On to the Kentucky Oaks …

Odds and ends: Old Fashioned worked five furlongs in 1:00.6 at Oaklawn on Monday. Trainer Larry Jones was pleased with how the colt went around the turn. “That was the big thing.” I’m nonchalantly ignoring Musket Man for now, even though he’s definitely heading to the Kentucky Derby after winning the Illinois. And The Pamplemousse is out, for at least six months, possibly longer. “Our goal is the Pacific Classic [at Del Mar] next year.”

Posted in Racing on April 7, 2009 / Tagged Derby Prospects, I Want Revenge, Kentucky Derby, Lists, Quality Road, Rachel Alexandra / Comments Off on Shaping Up

Top 10 Shuffle

Kentucky Oaks-bound Rachel Alexandra drops off my PDI Derby top 10, while Quality Road zips from #7 to #1 on the strength of his Florida Derby win. It wasn’t that long ago I would have dismissed Quality Road for the five-week layoff between his final prep and the Kentucky Derby and for being too lightly raced, but Big Brown and Barbaro have nullified those concerns, and the Jimmy Jerkens-trained colt does meet what I’ve come to consider the minimum-required historical criteria: He started as a 2-year-old, has made three starts as a 3-year-old, and has raced around two turns and in fields of more than 10 starters.

Dunkirk, an impressive second to Quality Road, moves from #8 to #7, a slight bump that reflects my dislike for how he’s being prepped, tempering my enthusiasm for his potential Derby ability. That he’s on the earnings bubble with $150,000 and may miss the Derby is a shame, but then, trainer Todd Pletcher shouldn’t have treated the Florida Derby as a Win and You’re In race for his talented gray. A little jiggering of the schedule could have had Dunkirk start in two graded stakes before May.*

I dropped Friesan Fire to #6 from #2 (and it’s possible he’ll fall further after the Santa Anita Derby and Wood) since trainer Larry Jones’ plan to train the colt up to the Derby seems a little out there the further away we get from the Louisiana Derby — I’m ready to concede a five week layoff is no longer a problem, but seven weeks off seems still too much.

Desert Party drops one spot, to #4, after finishing second to Regal Ransom, who reappears at #8, in the UAE Derby. I didn’t reverse the two, for reasons similar to Steve Haskin’s assessment:

If Desert Party had run the exact same race in one of the final preps in America, I would consider it a solid effort that should set him up for a peak performance on May 2…. Desert Party was the only non-speed horse to make up any ground late, and he finished 15 lengths ahead of the third horse …

Regal Ransom and Desert Party will ship to Churchill Downs early in April. Godolphin racing manager Simon Crisford said a decision would be made closer to the Derby as to whether both will start or whether one will be held back and pointed to the Preakness.

Top 10 for 3/31/09: 1. Quality Road 2. Pioneerof the Nile 3. I Want Revenge 4. Desert Party 5. Old Fashioned 6. Friesan Fire 7. Dunkirk 8. Regal Ransom 9. Imperial Council 10. Papa Clem

*The annual graded earnings debate flares anew, this year with a twist in Mafaaz scoring a guaranteed spot as the winner of the Kempton Kentucky Derby Challenge. “And so it has come to this,” Gary West fulminates,

The horse who won an insignificant stakes on an artificial surface at a minor racetrack in England has a reserved spot in the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby, and the horse who ran second in the Florida Derby may not even get a chance to race for the world’s most famous roses.

While I don’t agree with West that Mafaaz taking up a spot is a problem, I’m with him and almost every other observer in believing that using graded earnings to allocate precious Derby stalls is a flawed method. Dunkirk isn’t going to be squeezed out by a stunt winner, but by colts such as Square Eddie (#2 on the earning list with one start in 2009), West Side Bernie (#12 and showing no progression this year), or possibly Charitable Man (tied at #21 with Dunkirk and making his first and only pre-Derby start in the Blue Grass Stakes). A points system, such as the one Mike Watchmaker proposes in his latest DRF+ column (similar to Handride’s scheme), would not only have the benefit of weeding out the pretenders who racked up stakes monies as 2-year-olds or in winning minor stakes with inflated purses, but would discourage connections from making the sort of all-in gamble that Pletcher did with Dunkirk. It would give trainers reason to prep their charges through a series of races, making the Kentucky Derby more sporting all around.

Posted in Racing on March 31, 2009 / Tagged Derby Prospects, Desert Party, Dunkirk, Friesan Fire, Kentucky Derby, Lists, Quality Road / 2 comments

California Works

The Pamplemousse and Pioneerof the Nile worked for the Santa Anita Derby on Wednesday morning, and Horseplayerpro.com clocker Toby Turrell was there to catch both. First up, ‘Grapefruit, going six furlongs handily in 1:13:

“The Pamplemousse had regular pilot Alex Solis aboard for a key six-panel drill this morning at Santa Anita, and the signals were mixed for the big grey. On the plus side, Solis never really put him into gear most of the way. However, he still wanted to get a bit too aggressive early going (:47.20 to the top of the lane) en route to a 1:13-flat clocking — with an even more pedestrian gallop out time of 127.60.

“This drill was a bit backwards on the watch, and when Solis ‘clucked’ to the horse inside the eighth-pole, The Pamplemousse did not give much response visually over a pretty deep surface. The Pro-Ride was renovated on Monday afternoon as part of the track’s normal maintenance.

“It certainly appears at this stage that the connections are just going to have to let The Pamplemousse sail on the lead and hope for the best.”

That fits with how the Pamplemousse won the Sham and San Rafael; he won’t get away so easily in the Santa Anita Derby. The lack of response Turrell observed can be seen in this video posted by Larry Zap Eye, who also followed the tired-seeming and hard-blowing Pamplemousse back to the barn after his work. The same video has a few seconds of Pioneerof the Nile, moving smoothly over the Pro-Ride. According to Turrell:

“With just over a week to go until the Santa Anita Derby, trainer Bob Baffert wanted a stiff drill out of his charge and he got it with Joe Steiner piloting Pioneer Of The Nile to a co-bullet of 1:11.40 for six panels. The splits of this drill were :35.60 and 59-flat, then a final furlong of :12.40 past the wire, working down to the clubhouse turn. Baffert told me that he was extremely happy with the colt and it went according to schedule. There is no doubt he will get a lot out of this drill, fitness-wise, over a deeply renovated surface that played a bit on the heavy side this morning.

“Anytime a 3-year-old can go the last three-eighths in :35.40 with a real swift final clocking, you have to deem him on course to go the ultimate distance of a mile and a quarter on the first Saturday in May. I personally believe that this colt’s most impressive drills are when he shows his class in team drills, where he usually blows by his stablemate with ease through the last quarter-mile. Today, working solo, Pioneerof The Nile was professional, indeed, responding to the urging from his regular exercise rider from top of the lane to the clubhouse turn without having a target in front of him to keep him aggressive.”

Baffert likes bullets, so it’s no news that Pioneerof the Nile earned one for his stellar final time, but doing the last three-eighths in :35.40 is attention grabbing coming out of any barn.

Posted in Racing on March 25, 2009 / Tagged Derby Prospects, Kentucky Derby, Pioneerof the Nile, Santa Anita, Santa Anita Derby, The Pamplemousse, Workouts / 2 comments