JC / Railbird

Kentucky Derby

For Reference

Historical and popular handicapping criteria, applied to the top 22 Kentucky Derby prospects, listed according to graded stakes earnings. The spreadsheet includes the complete 2003-2008 Derby fields and the top three finishers 1998-2008 for reference, and will be updated once more during Derby week, after all workouts are done and post positions have been drawn. Note: This year I’ve added two columns, one for “Started on dirt,” another for “Won on dirt,” for those concerned about the surface factor.

Any questions or suggestions? Please let me know in the comments (thanks for asking about when this would be up, Jeff). I’ll be returning to the spreadsheet, stats, and Derby handicapping next week.

4/21/09 Addition: Geno at Equispace has also been hard at work compiling data, and has posted a thorough spreadsheet that includes Beyer speed figures and dosage for the top Derby prospects.

Posted in Racing on April 20, 2009 / Tagged Chart, Data, Derby Prospects, Historical Criteria, Kentucky Derby / 1 comment

Much the Best

Mike Watchmaker asks, “Seriously. How good is Forever Together?” (Beware: DRF+ link.) Just watch the Jenny Wiley stretch run for the answer:

Slow pace, late kick: After Kiss With a Twist takes the field through the first six furlongs in 1:17.12, Forever Together makes her move on the outside, going from sixth entering the stretch to a win in less than 30 seconds (with the final sixteenth in :6.13), all under a handride, becoming the latest Breeders’ Cup winner to return successfully this year. It’s going to be fun watching her campaign through the summer and fall …

Zenyatta too, whenever she debuts. The champion worked six furlongs in 1:10.60 on Saturday in prep for her eventual return. A race in May at Hollywood is a possibility, said trainer John Shirreffs, but nothing is set. Whatever the race, it seems safe to say it’ll be the most anticipated of the spring.

Oaks and Derby odds and ends: Ashland winner Hooh Why is under consideration for the Oaks; no decision yet on Stardom Bound, who gets a new rider in Garrett Gomez. Julien Leparoux picks up the mount on General Quarters, replacing rider Eibar Coa for the Derby. (The General gains a little more credibility with that move.) Pioneerof the Nile worked a bullet four furlongs handily in :46.20 at Santa Anita this morning, Papa Clem arrived at Churchill on Tuesday, and @derbyoaks tweeted that West Side Bernie jogged over the track for the first time today. Also on the grounds and out of quarantine, Desert Party and Regal Ransom. The duo will work over the weekend. Terrain is off the trail: “We just feel he’s not quite a Derby horse,” said trainer Al Stall, who said the gelding would be pointed to the Lone Star Derby instead. If only more connections had the restraint. Instead, come Derby day, “8 or 9 certainly won’t belong at Churchill.”

That gives me an idea: Who are five unlikeliest Derby prospects? The horses you think would be better pointing elsewhere? List below in the comments …

Posted in Racing on April 15, 2009 / Tagged Distaffers, Forever Together, Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Oaks, Zenyatta / 3 comments

Notes for 2009-04-13

– Few changes to the top 10 this week, with all adjustments in the second tier. Arkansas Derby winner Papa Clem, who’s been bumping around the lower third since February, moves to #6, replacing runner-up Old Fashioned, now off the Derby trail and likely done with racing due to a slab fracture of the knee. General Quarters appears at #8 following his win in the Blue Grass, making him the second to come out of the Tampa Bay Derby and take a stakes. I had trouble coming up with a tenth prospect, narrowing the possibles down to Chocolate Candy, Musket Man, and West Side Bernie, all on the cusp. Although Twitterverse sentiment was 4-to-1 for ‘Candy, I settled on Musket Man, who followed up on his Tampa win with another in last week’s Illinois Derby.

Top 10 for 4/14/09 PDI: 1. I Want Revenge 2. Quality Road 3. Pioneerof the Nile 4. Desert Party 5. Friesan Fire 6. Papa Clem 7. Dunkirk 8. General Quarters 9. Regal Ransom 10. Musket Man

– Chocolate Candy worked yesterday morning with new rider Mike Smith up, going five furlongs handily in :59.20 at Santa Anita. “I was happy with the work, said trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. Of course he was. Trainers are almost never quoted as anything but thrilled with their charges, especially three weeks before the biggest 3-year-old race of the year. The colt does look pretty good in this video of his Sunday move, though.

Dunkirk and Quality Road also worked over the weekend, with Dunkirk breezing four furlongs in :49.06 at Palm Meadows, and Quality Road doing the same in :48 at Belmont Park. He then galloped out five furlongs in 1:01.85 (according to DRF; Belmont clockers credited Quality’ with a five furlong breeze in 1:02.19). NYRA posted a short video of the work, showing the Jimmy Jerkens-trained colt going fine, apparently untroubled by the quarter crack found earlier in the week.

On the distaff side, watch mail brought notice that Music Note, third in her final 2008 start, the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Classic, is back in training. The 4-year-old filly breezed three furlongs in :37.40 at Keeneland on Saturday. No news yet on where she might debut this year. Possibly Belmont, in a race such as the June 13 G1 Ogden Phipps Handicap?

– It might be too early to start speculating on possible Derby pace scenarios, but with Old Fashioned and The Pamplemousse out, who goes to the front? There’s not a lot of early speed among the remaining probables.

– BSFs: 99 101 (upgraded) for Papa Clem, 95 for General Quarters.

Posted in Racing on April 13, 2009 / Tagged Chocolate Candy, Derby Prospects, Dunkirk, General Quarters, Kentucky Derby, Lists, Music Note, Old Fashioned, Papa Clem, Quality Road, Workouts / 3 comments