JC / Railbird

Kentucky Derby

Kentucky Derby Time

I was feeling the American Pharoah hangover. I didn’t have a Kentucky Derby horse, I was more interested in the Oaks — why not take a year off from this one race with its oversized field and tendency to chaos after we finally, finally get a Triple Crown winner? The feeling passed with the draw. Just like that, 20 horses slotted into the starting gate, and the excitement came back.

I still don’t have a Kentucky Derby horse, but I do have a few links to share:

1. The prep and historical criteria spreadsheet is updated with the 2016 field. For the past two or three years, I’ve thought it was time to revisit some of factors, such as the key preps, or the reliance on Beyer speed figures, but as a quick reference and a check on exuberant handicapping, the info holds up.

2. Keep the sheet open in a tab while you read why you shouldn’t pick Nyquist.

3. Who else should you play? Hand your Saturday party guests the Hello Race Fans Kentucky Derby cheat sheet to answer that question.

4. The Thomas Herding “Patterns of Motion Analysis for the Kentucky Derby” report is great reading each year — it’s a different way to think about each of the starters, and how they’ll react to being in a 20-horse field, that breaks through all the usual angles. This year’s edition is as insightful as ever about a crop that everyone seems a little stumped by, even if Kerry Thomas and Pete Denk are as flummoxed as observers at Churchill Downs have been by this year’s UAE Derby winner: “Lani moves very methodically yet runs with a strange Jeckyl-and-Hyde intensity,” they write. “This is a very unique profile.”

5. Sure, Lani has a unique profile. But is it a winner’s profile? If you’re looking for an reason to bet him, then Jon White’s Kentucky Derby strikes system gives you one — he has only a single strike against him. Lani also has one of the best pedigrees for the distance, says Valerie Grash.

6. Unless there’s a scratch and Laoban draws in, the Derby pace looks like:

TimeformUS Pace Projector Hot Pace Alert! Outwork & Nyquist projected to press Danzing Candy in the 142nd #KyDerby: pic.twitter.com/pg3rXPH6jP

— TimeformUS (@TimeformUS) May 5, 2016

7. The Bathing Index. (If Mo Tom wins, I’m a convert.)

Posted in Racing on May 5, 2016 / Tagged Kentucky Derby, Lani, Mo Tom, Nyquist / Comments Off on Kentucky Derby Time

The Marvel

From Tim Layden’s Triple Crown epilogue:

… Pharoah’s performance in his recent resumption of training would seem to indicate that he remains at the top of his game. “The only time he’s ever come back to the barn blowing and tired was after the Derby,” says Baffert. That race, according to Baffert and jockey Victor Espinoza, remains a marvel. “He was empty with a half mile left in the race,” says Baffert. “I mean empty.” Espinoza says, “I started riding him at the half-mile pole and I’m like ‘Holy s—! What’s happening here?” Says Baffert, “You got a horse that’s empty, and wins the Kentucky Derby, that’s a great horse. People told me, ‘You’ve got to run against older horses.’ Trust me, I’m not worried about older horses. Not with this guy.”

It’s begun — as the legend of American Pharoah’s Triple Crown win grows, it’ll be the Kentucky Derby that increasingly stands out as his greatest challenge, the race that defines his accomplishment.

Posted in Racing on July 15, 2015 / Tagged American Pharoah, Great Horses, Kentucky Derby, Triple Crown / Comments Off on The Marvel

The 99 Percent

Johnny Weir hadn’t even been born when the modern Kentucky Derby telecast was conceived. The challenges of 1982 look a lot like 2015:

Many were dubious at the time about the value of an extended telecast, but ABC stood fast. “There are very few sports that the American public follows so little, but becomes so interested in for one race,” host Jim McKay told the Dallas Morning News. “There’s a tremendous amount of familiarization to do on the day of the race. There’s the horse, the owner, the jockey, and the trainer, and it’s important to do as much as possible on who they are and where they came from.”

Sportscaster Howard Cosell summarized ABC’s production strategy a bit more bluntly to the Washington Post: “You have to be willing to alienate — or at least talk at a sophisticated level they’re not at all pleased with — the serious horseplayer,” he explained. “You can’t be concerned with them. You have to worry about the 99 percent who are watching just because it’s the Derby.”

It’s interesting how much the televised approach to the Derby has spilled over into year-round racing marketing (for example: America’s Best Racing).

Posted in Racing on May 28, 2015 / Tagged Kentucky Derby, Marketing, Telecasts, TV / Comments Off on The 99 Percent

Pop, Pop, Pop

Steve Haskin on the 32 strikes debate:

Did Victor Espinoza overdo his use of the whip in the Kentucky Derby? It would certainly appear that he did. In his mind, was it abuse or mistreatment? Of course not …

So, while Espinoza is guilty of overuse of the whip on Stellar Wind, and arguably American Pharoah, and deserves to be punished, incidents like that are going to continue unless we adopt policies like the one they have in England. Not because of any cruel intent, but because of the natural act of using the whip to urge on a horse. You can’t just tell a jockey to stop something he’s done all his life. You have to make penalties serve as an inducement where he at least thinks about what he’s doing and learns to control his actions. The British jockeys have learned it; so can ours.

It sounds as though the stewards’ review of the Kentucky Derby is over:

“We have [reviewed the ride again] and we have the same feeling we had after the race was over: It’s within the boundaries of our regulations. He did hit the horse quite a few times but it was all within the rules of the state.”

Calvin Borel explains why jockeys may use padded crops more:

“You have to hit them six times to one times to the old crop; that’s what it amounts to, because they really don’t feel it,” Borel said. “With that kind of crop [padded], you have to — not hit them hard — but keep popping them.

“Riders hit them more often probably because of the pop, pop, pop; it keeps making noise. And it probably looks worse. With the regular whip, you get their attention when you hit them one time.”

Posted in Racing on May 11, 2015 / Tagged American Pharoah, Calvin Borel, Kentucky, Kentucky Derby, Stewards, Victor Espinoza, Whip Use / Comments Off on Pop, Pop, Pop