JC / Railbird

Kentucky Derby

Speed to the Outside

Is there any doubt? Recapturetheglory, Gayego, and Big Brown will be among the final five assigned a spot in the gate. Here’s the order in which connections will select post positions in the Kentucky Derby draw, which will be shown on ESPN2 beginning at 5:00 p.m. ET today:

Trainer Larry Jones is in a sweet spot with Eight Belles. As the sixth to select, he’ll have no problem netting his big gray filly an agreeable post.

Posted in Racing on April 30, 2008 / Tagged Kentucky Derby / 1 comment

Wednesday Morning Notes

– Post positions for the Kentucky Derby will be drawn later this afternoon and handicapping will begin in earnest soon after. Stats are always a big part of figuring the Derby and everyone has their favorite angles. Superfecta, a fan of the Courier-Journal Data Track, pays attention to the proven ability to handle traffic factor. Dean Keppler, writing on the Rail, looks for triple-digit speed figures and key prep races. And for a thorough assessment, look to the 20/20 Derby Vision system developed by Kennedy. I’ll add to the stats overload tomorrow, when I finally delve into my Derby Profiles and how those factors relate to this year’s field.
– Jeremy Plonk reports that Adriano, despite schooling in the Churchill paddock repeatedly, remains skittish:

I can relate. Except for the kicking, I’m the same way on trips into Manhattan. I also find that earplugs help …
Trainer Graham Motion, who blamed Adriano’s paddock antics before the Fountain of Youth for his dull finish in that race, told Plonk that Adriano improves daily, but with four days to go, how he’ll behave surrounded by a crowd of 150,000 on Saturday remains a big question.
– Rick Bozich tries to talk about drugs in racing, is greeted with silence and requests to go off the record.
– Paulo Lobo doesn’t hustle.
– As the hype around Big Brown builds, Turf Luck returns again and again to the story of a Derby long ago.

Posted in Racing on April 30, 2008 / Tagged Kentucky Derby / Comments Off on Wednesday Morning Notes

Black Is the New Black

It didn’t take long after the Florida Derby for people to start decreeing Big Brown “this year’s Bellamy Road.” He’s also this year’s Indian Charlie, this year’s Pulpit, and this year’s Curlin.
“Big Brown is this year’s Bellamy Road” is this year’s “This is a wide open field” or “This is a weak crop.”
Other horses evoke memories of other horses, too. Just yesterday someone said that Colonel John is this year’s Prime Timber. That’s not bad, but I think of him more as this year’s Afleet Alex (especially if Big Brown is this year’s Bellamy Road).
It pains me to say it, but Court Vision could be this year’s Giacomo (especially if Big Brown is this year’s Bellamy Road and Colonel John is this year’s Afleet Alex).
Anyway, Giacomo always hinted at talent, but never quite got there in the big race and was “too slow to win the Derby,” which is how I feel about Court Vision. The difference is that Court Vision will be a third of the price.
Smooth Air is this year’s Deputy Glitters. He doesn’t deserve to be the longest shot on the board based on his consistent record, but he probably will be. Hopefully he goes on to win some nice races (like the Ohio Derby).
I heard someone say that Visionaire is this year’s Thunder Gulch, and that Z Fortune is this year’s Funny Cide, but I don’t get those as much.
Still, it’s a fun exercise in Derby history to compare horses from today with yesteryear. At least there is no Tincin this year.

Posted in Racing on April 29, 2008 / Tagged Kentucky Derby / Comments Off on Black Is the New Black