Kentucky Derby

Blinkers Off – Tuesday

Special Railbird correspondent Blinkers Off checks in from the backstretch. Today at Churchill …
Rick Dutrow and Big Brown are unquestionably the stars of this Kentucky Derby. Not only did Dutrow have the lone formal press conference scheduled Tuesday, the location was changed as well, leaving several veteran Derby reporters scrambling. “How are we supposed to know these things?” asked one, who happened to fortunately be standing in the media center where it had been moved to. “Word of mouth,” she was told …
Dutrow, wearing a “Palm Meadows” cap and a down vest over a hoodie (temperatures were in the low 40s), might become the new D. Wayne Lukas of Triple Crown racing if he continues talking about women instead of horses. “It’s like trying to be with a pretty girl and you can’t,” he said in response to one question, eliciting laughter, some of it nervous. The trainer was on better footing when asked about Kent Desormeax, a two-time Derby winner, calling Big Brown the best horse he had ever been on. “Desormeaux got paid a lot of money to say that,” Dutrow responded …
Nick Zito was in fine New York form outside his barn. Talking about Anak Nakal and Cool Coal Man, not exactly Affirmed and Alydar, Zito said, “I wish Bill Parcells was here. I’d tell him we have Jeff Hostetler.” Zito held court at length about his distaste for Polytrack. “I like dirt and grass. I don’t want something from the attic.” …
David Carroll, whose Denis of Cork moved into the Derby field after Todd Pletcher and Satish Sanan decided to hold out Lexington Stakes winner Behindatthebar for the Preakness, vowed to never let Ragozin Sheets or any other speed figures determine how he trains his horses. “Shove those numbers up their asses,” Carroll said.

More Blinkers Off

Wednesday, 4/30: Motion on Adriano, Dutrow on cheating, Harty on Colonel John.
Thursday, 5/1: Bad deal for track employees, being glad you weren’t in the Beatles, Casner hopes for synthetic Churchill.
Friday, 5/2: Gayego’s feet fine, tight security, whispers about Pyro.
Saturday, 5/3: Manny the Magician, $1 exacta box.

Posted in Blinkers Off, Racing on April 29, 2008 / Tagged Kentucky Derby / 1 comment

Graphing the Contenders

Following up on my earlier study on the BSF patterns of past Kentucky Derby fields, I graphed the prep race BSF patterns of the top 20 Derby contenders this year:

Click to enlarge.

A caveat: Beyer speed figures are merely tools and not necessarily comparable across surfaces, and figures earned solely on turf and synthetics (such as those for Colonel John and Cowboy Cal) indicate little how those horses will perform on dirt. Still, I find the visual representation useful — it makes clear that Gayego is a real contender, that Tale of Ekati may be improving but is too slow, and suggests that both consistent Eight Belles and Cowboy Cal have more of a chance than their odds might accord.
Over on Thoroughbred Champions, Kennedy posts more in-depth work on the figures, describing six distinct patterns for Derby contenders.

Posted in Racing on April 29, 2008 / Tagged Kentucky Derby / 4 comments

Tuesday Morning Notes

– At Churchill: Tale of Ekati worked four furlongs in :49.40 (“nothing dramatic“) over the main track. Halo Najib, #21 on the earnings list, worked five furlongs in 1:05 over the turf.
– Dutrow’s plan: “After winning the Derby, Big Brown will go to Baltimore, win the Preakness, and then claim the Triple Crown with a win in the Belmont.” If only winning the Triple Crown were that easy; I’m sure we would have had a winner or two in the past 30 years. [Addendum: Joe Drape reports today that Dutrow, now at Churchill, is more subdued.]
– Of course, if Big Brown does win the Derby, certain unsavory subjects will come up for discussion …
– Now proven, synthetic surfaces produce closer finishes:

The change is good for horseplayers, said a Polytrack representative: “Close finishes give the bettor the feeling that they weren’t too far off” (ThoroTimes).
– Average daily handle declined at Keeneland during its recently concluded spring meet, but aided by an additional day and a closing card pick six carryover, overall Keeneland numbers were just 5% off last year’s record handle.

Posted in Keeneland, Racing on April 29, 2008 / Tagged Kentucky Derby / Comments Off on Tuesday Morning Notes