JC / Railbird

Kentucky Derby

That’ll Be a Lot

… of disappointed connections come 6:08 p.m. Saturday if Big Brown doesn’t win:

The likely Derby favorite arrived at Churchill this afternoon.

Posted in Racing on April 28, 2008 / Tagged Kentucky Derby / Comments Off on That’ll Be a Lot

Getting the Trip

In 133 runnings of the Kentucky Derby, the winner has been in the lead or within a half-length of the lead at the stretch call of the race in 116 of those races (7/8!). More recently, only Giacomo in the past six years has not gotten that trip. Even Street Sense, with his big move up the rail from 19th, was already in the lead by the stretch call of the race.
Other recent aberrations to this rule are Monarchos and Charismatic. Given that Charismatic and Giacomo were gigantic bombs and the Monarchos win came in the year of the record fractions, it seems as if the race really needs to completely fall apart for a horse to come closing at the very end of the race to win.
I’m willing to downgrade a horse like Court Vision’s chances to win based on the above, as I don’t think there will be a complete meltdown of the first two tiers of horses this year. Notice I didn’t say “of the pace.” In Barbaro’s year, Keyed Entry, Sharp Humor, and Sinister Minister all faded badly, but that second tier of horses—Barbaro, Bluegrass Cat, and Showing Up—ran well. I could see horses with that running style doing well this year.

Posted in Racing on April 28, 2008 / Tagged Kentucky Derby / 4 comments

Denis of Cork In

Lexington winner Behindatthebar will skip the Derby and point to the Preakness, trainer Todd Pletcher announced this morning, which means Denis of Cork slips off the bubble and solidly into spot #20 on the graded earnings list. “We’re excited,” said trainer David Carroll of the news. “The horse is here, we feel he belongs in the race with him doing as well as he is” (DRF). Jockey Calvin Borel, who will ride the colt in the Derby, was in the saddle this morning when Denis of Cork worked four furlongs in :48 at Churchill and had nothing but good to say at a time when it still didn’t look like Denis would make it. “He’s peaking right now,” said Borel after the work. “This horse is getting better, and better, and better. Maybe we’ll get in” (Morning Line). Despite how well Denis of Cork is training now, though, his unconventional prep schedule based on the bounce theory and his fifth-place finish in the Illinois Derby makes him hard to like heading into Saturday. Too bad. If only he had stayed at Oaklawn …

Posted in Racing on April 28, 2008 / Tagged Kentucky Derby / Comments Off on Denis of Cork In