JC / Railbird

Kentucky Derby

Fillies’ Plans Confirmed

Update from Ed at Churchill: Proud Spell is definite for the Oaks, while Eight Belles will be cross-entered in the Oaks and the Derby, as planned, but only posts 19 or 20 would have owner Rick Porter and trainer Larry Jones thinking about scratching and “even then they might still run.” The defection of Proud Spell moves Bob Black Jack into the field and leaves Denis of Cork on the outside, with his connections hoping for one more dropout before Wednesday.

Posted in Racing on April 27, 2008 / Tagged Kentucky Derby / 2 comments

First Look

Things were kind of slow on the backside of Churchill Downs Saturday morning, as many horsemen played cat and mouse with the weather.
Overnight rains rendered the main track muddy, and of the Derby probables, only Gayego worked under the sometimes ominous-sometimes welcoming watch of the Twin Spires (Monba and Cowboy Cal worked at Keeneland).
I’m not one for getting into how horses look. My strengths as a handicapper come from reading charts and pedigree analysis. That said, I think I’ve seen enough horses at various stages of their careers and seen enough races that I can identify extremes. That is, I know when a horse looks super great or simply awful.
Gayego looked great today.
I was about a sixteenth of a mile away from where Gayego started his work, and I had him firmly in my sights as he raced down the backstretch and into the turn, and that’s when I really got impressed. His action into the turn was breathtaking, and even his gallop out after the work drew “oohs” and “aahs” as he cycled back into the backstretch.
His jockey and trainer flew in from California for the work, the breeder was there for the work, and I could understand why there were so many smiles to go around.
Sunday should be a lot busier from a work standpoint, as it looks as if it will stay dry overnight, and with a chance of rain on Monday, many trainers may want to get the work in sooner rather than later.

Posted in Racing on April 26, 2008 / Tagged Kentucky Derby / Comments Off on First Look

Big Brown Madness

Derby week begins and all perspective is lost. In Florida still, trainer Rick Dutrow is full of bravado:

And he’s not alone is his feelings about Big Brown’s Derby chances. Bill Finley agrees:

As does John at Not to Swift, who’s feeling 1981 all over again: “Dutrow and Big Brown are déjà vu.”
In typical fashion, my contrarian streak is kicking in as the bandwagon grows crowded. I’m off Big Brown, with his inexperience and single two-turn prep, no matter how thrilling and fast, and onto a new horse — Gayego, who worked well at Churchill this morning, going five furlongs in 1:01 (fifth of 20 at the distance) over the muddy track.

Posted in Racing on April 26, 2008 / Tagged Kentucky Derby / 1 comment