JC / Railbird - Kentucky Derby

Kentucky Derby

2019 Kentucky Derby

Prep schedule: Includes leaderboard, charts, replays, speed figures

Derby 8 – April 15

1. Colonel John: Moves to the top of the list after last weekend’s preps. Worked four furlongs in :47.40 over the Santa Anita main track on Monday. Trainer Eoin Harty plans to ship the colt to Churchill next week.
2. Big Brown: Still a little hung up on his feet and inexperience, but he does have speed.
3. Gayego: Ran the final eighth in :12.68 after chasing quick early fractions in the Arkansas Derby.
4. Z Fortune: Cycling back into form? Can’t say he’s not bred for the distance or lacks preparation.
5. Tale of Ekati: Wood winner looks better after the ugly Blue Grass knocks out Big Truck and Cool Coal Man.
6. Eight Belles: The Derby would be her first race against the boys, but the way the field is shaping up, that might not be a problem.
7. War Pass: Credit for how game he was in the Wood. Might not fold easily in the Derby.
8. Pyro: Can’t see him winning the Derby off the Blue Grass, not matter how he works, but can’t see leaving him out of exotics either.

Posted in Racing on April 15, 2008 / Tagged Kentucky Derby / 6 comments

Synth to Dirt, No Problem

A little breakfast time research yields this nugget:

Of the 460 nominees to the Triple Crown, 61 have made the switch from a synthetic surface to a fast dirt track. Of those, 47 improved or replicated their synthetic form on dirt.

Details in this Google doc. Only horses who raced primarily on synthetics at the start of their careers and who switched from such a surface to a fast dirt track are included (so horses whose single dirt starts were over the Monmouth slop of the 2007 Breeders’ Cup are not represented). Also, I made no distinctions between synthetic surfaces and didn’t consider class or distance changes. Generally, results were marked positive (P) if a horse showed an improved BSF and/or finish position, negative (N) if the opposite, and consistent (C) if it ran +/- 3 BSF and/or showed similar placing.

The odds are good that the California synthetic surface form of Colonel John and Bob Black Jack will hold up at Churchill.

Related: Andrew Beyer rants:

But in the 3-year-old stakes races that precede the Kentucky Derby, the presence of synthetic tracks has not merely complicated the game. It has made rational handicapping judgments almost impossible.

Not really. Synthetics are different, but not inexplicable.

Posted in Handicapping, Racing on April 15, 2008 / Tagged Data, Kentucky Derby, Reference, Surface Changes, Synthetic Surfaces / 6 comments

Pyro “Didn’t Do Enough”

– Pyro came out of his tenth-place finish as the even-money favorite in Saturday’s Blue Grass “bright-eyed and looking full of run,” which has trainer Steve Asmussen concerned the colt didn’t get enough out of his final Kentucky Derby prep and prompting a change to Pyro’s training. Bill Finley reports the colt will get some competition in his next work:

“I’m definitely worried that he didn’t do enough in the Blue Grass,” Asmussen said. “I would have worked him by himself. Now, his next work will definitely be in company. I just can’t look at the Blue Grass as a hard race.”

I’m doubtful Pyro can turn things around in three weeks, working in company or not. He lacks a good final prep at nine furlongs (defined as winning or finishing ITM or within three lengths of the winner) and his Blue Grass Beyer is 73. In the last 15 years, no horse has won the Derby coming off a speed figure less than 91 and only Street Sense — who had other factors in his favor — has won the Derby off anything resembling a regression.
– Saying his decision would depend on the Ragozin numbers and how she trains over the next couple weeks, owner Rick Porter is considering entering Eight Belles in the Derby:

“We know she’ll get the distance, number one, and we know she has a lot of heart,” he said. “She can run on the front, she can stalk and come from off the pace … she’s a very talented filly and with the competition out there, with the colts this year, she fits right in with the top three or four 3-year-olds in America.” (Blood-Horse, via Valerie)

If entered, Eight Belles would go into the Derby off four wins, and the 99 Beyer she earned in the Fantasy is one of the better numbers run in a two-turn stakes this season. Porter is leaving his options open, however, and said that he might cross-enter the filly in the Kentucky Oaks, determining which race she would start in only after the post draw:

“The only negative is she doesn’t break sharply from the gate, and if she got an outside post in the Derby that wouldn’t help us,” said Porter. Then we’d have the option of running in the Oaks, but I think she can run with the boys.” (AP)

– Gayego ships to Churchill this morning. “He’s doing good,” said assistant trainer Martin Morales of the Arkansas Derby winner on Sunday, “and he’s ready for the next one” (BRIS).
– “Big Brown is going to be the favorite,” said oddsmaker Mike Battaglia of the Derby morning line after Saturday’s prep races (Courier-Journal). Colonel John will be second. What to do with Pyro is the question.

Posted in Racing on April 14, 2008 / Tagged Kentucky Derby / 4 comments

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