JC / Railbird

Kentucky Derby

2019 Kentucky Derby

Prep schedule: Includes leaderboard, charts, replays, speed figures

Wednesday Evening Notes

– Travis Stone points out that Tiznow, sire of Santa Anita Derby winner Colonel John, is the leading sire of runners on synthetic surfaces. What he doesn’t mention is that Tiznow is second on the overall leading sires list, behind Smart Strike, whose offspring include turf and dirt stars, and that three of the five top sires overall also appear on the synthetic list. Good sires are versatile.
– Colonel John was easily the most impressive Kentucky Derby prep winner on Saturday, rallying late and running the final eighth of the nine-furlong race in an even :12 after overcoming a tough pace scenario, but he wasn’t finished at the wire, as Steve Haskin noticed while watching the colt gallop out:

Nakatani, apparently sensing that Colonel John had done his only serious running in the final sixteenth, wanted him to keep going and gallop out strong. He waved the whip at him crossing the wire, and then gave him a tap on the shoulder with the handle of the whip before pulling on his left rein and snapping the right rein against the colt’s shoulder. As a result, Colonel John was able to run through the wire and continue on at a decent clip without easing to the outside, as many horses will do when galloping out. It was a clever move by Nakatani, who has to make sure the colt doesn’t put himself in that position again in the Derby. He’ll have to quicken earlier, and can’t afford to let horses whiz by him at the three-eighths pole.

– Giant Moon is possible for the Preakness after finishing fourth in the Wood. “We accomplished a lot and showed that he belongs in that company,” said trainer Richard Schosberg of the effort on Monday.
– Trainer Todd Pletcher acknowledges what I figured out a couple weeks into this year’s Road to the Roses contest and everyone knew after Saturday: He has no Kentucky Derby horses. “We are struggling right now” (Times Union).
– Fran of Hoofcare goes to Florida and gets the story on Big Brown’s bad feet straight from trainer Rick Dutrow.

Derby Fever in Full Bloom

– Trainer David Carroll is throwing out Denis of Cork’s fifth-place finish in the Illinois Derby and will train the colt for a start in the Kentucky Derby. “I have so much confidence in the horse,” said Carroll. “I’m not going to make excuses … [the Illinois Derby] was a nonevent as far as I’m concerned” (Courier-Journal). That Denis of Cork was returning off a seven-week layoff after winning the Southwest Stakes makes the logic of Carroll’s statement almost plausible, but the Illinois Derby was Denis of Cork’s second and last prep and he showed little. “We had a good trip and when I asked him at the 3/8ths pole, I thought he was ready to go,” said jockey Julien Leparoux after. “He kept going but there was no kick to get there” (Blood-Horse). No kick on Saturday, probably no kick four weeks from now.
– Lane’s End winner Adriano, prepping for a start in the April 19 Lexington Stakes, may go in the Kentucky Derby instead. “We wouldn’t run him in both races,” Motion said. “I’d say at this point we’re leaning a little bit more toward the Derby than the Lexington” (Thoroughbred Times). In Adriano’s only dirt start, the Fountain of Youth, the colt finished ninth, although whether that was because of the surface or because he became unsettled in the paddock is uncertain. Motion said he would send Adriano to Churchill this week to work over the track.
– War Pass bounced back from his Tampa Bay Derby defeat to finish second in the Wood, which delighted trainer Nick Zito: “I’m happy with how he ran. He wasn’t up the track” (WashPost). It was a pretty good result considering the front-runner had to contend with a tiring track that was unkind to speed in most of the day’s races and a rabbit dogging him through the first half. “He got a lot out of this race,” said owner Robert LaPenta, who was confident the juvenile champion would go on to Churchill. “This was a great conditioning race. I don’t think anybody will be doing 22 and change in the Derby” (Courier-Journal). That’s not a bet I would take. In eight of the past 10 years, the first quarter of the Derby was run in 22 and change:

With Big Brown and Recapturetheglory in the field, it’s unlikely War Pass will get the luxury of — or the opportunity to dictate — a moderate pace.

Derby 8 – April 8

1. Pyro: Solid, consistent Pyro put in his final work for the Blue Grass Stakes on Monday morning, going four furlongs in :50.60 at Keeneland without company. He’ll start on Saturday without the pressure of having to win — although, as Winchell racing manager David Fiske said in the NTRA teleconference on Tuesday, it would be nice to do so.
2. Colonel John: I hope racing analysts and handicappers continue to fret over the Santa Anita Derby winner’s lack of dirt-racing experience, because that will make his Derby day odds so much better. By Tiznow, two-time winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and out of Turkoman mare Sweet Damsel, a winner on dirt and turf, Colonel John should have no problem running over the organic stuff. If you’re concerned, though, pay extra attention to his Churchill training. Trainer Eoin Harty said the colt would have at least one work over the track before the Derby.
3. Big Truck: Worked a bullet four furlongs in :46.40 at Keeneland on Tuesday. Trainer Barclay Tagg said after the Tampa Bay Derby winner remains under consideration for the Blue Grass Stakes.
4. Big Brown: Only Illinois Derby winner Recapturetheglory’s 102 Beyer comes close to the figure he posted winning the Florida Derby.
5. Cool Coal Man: Will start in the Blue Grass on Saturday. Has the earnings for the Derby, but needs to show he’s ready for the first Saturday in May.
6. Tale of Ekati: Like Valerie, I was early fan of Wood victor Tale of Ekati — he was a brilliant maiden winner at Saratoga, and going into the prep season I thought he was trainer Tagg’s most likely Derby prospect. The sixth place finish in the Louisiana Derby, though, turned me off, especially since the colt was only going to get one more prep before May. Then he won that second prep.
7. Visionaire: Another starting in the Blue Grass. The Gotham winner was hardly flattered by the performance of Texas Wildcatter in the Wood last weekend when that one finished eighth, 33 lengths off the winner.
8. Eight Belles: After Eight Belles brought her winning streak to four with her gutsy victory in the Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn, trainer Larry Jones said the filly would start next in the Kentucky Oaks. She’s Triple Crown nominated, though, and owner Rick Porter is considering alternate plans. “If we feel Eight Belles has a good chance in the Derby, we’ll go the Derby,” he said, noting a decision doesn’t have to be made until Derby week. Eight Belles has $210,000 in graded stakes earnings, more than enough for a Kentucky Derby post.

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