JC / Railbird - Kentucky Derby

Kentucky Derby

2019 Kentucky Derby

Prep schedule: Includes leaderboard, charts, replays, speed figures

Explaining Giacomo

Gary West explains Giacomo’s Derby upset this way: “The combination of a dull rail, an uncommonly fast track and a Derby field laden with speed produced a 50-1 winner.” The first six furlongs were run in 1:09.59; the final time was 2:02.75. (Star Telegram)
The Kentucky Derby Beyer numbers are out, and, “Giacomo was barely the best of a barely adequate group. His winning Beyer speed figure was 100. Beyer figures are available on the Derby beginning with 1992. Until Saturday, the lowest number run by a winner was 105 by Sea Hero in 1993.” (Courier-Journal)
The emerging consensus seems to be that you can forget about Giacomo winning the Triple Crown. He might not even win the Preakness:

Considering Giacomo’s come-from-behind style, it’s tempting to think that his next race will be the more difficult test. Pimlico, with its tight turns and speed-favoring surface, is known for rewarding horses with early foot, definitely not Giacomo’s forte. Its homestretch, while longer than average, is still 25 yards shorter than Churchill’s and there was less than that left in the Derby when Giacomo finally caught the leader.

In other words, he’ll need to be significantly closer to the pace when he and jockey Mike Smith turn for home to get the job done. Smith and trainer John Shirreffs are, obviously, aware of this. Whether Giacomo will go along with this plan remains to be seen. (Fox)

Vic Zast has the opposite take:

The toughest part is over for Giacomo. Things begin to get easier for him now. Despite his 50-1 odds in the Kentucky Derby, the 19 horses that Giacomo trounced in the Run for the Roses will boil down to a manageable few in the upcoming Preakness Stakes, to be held at Pimlico Race Course on May 21. Once past that, he has only to survive the rigors of exhaustion to become the 12th Triple Crown champion. (MSNBC)

Wouldn’t that be something? One of the first things I said after watching the Derby (right after shouting something that would have been acceptable at Suffolk — in fact, whoever I would have been standing by would probably have been shouting something much, much worse — but was out of place in a hipster living room filled with once-a-year horse fans) was, “There will be no Triple Crown this year.” I’d like to be wrong.

Posted in Racing on May 9, 2005 / Tagged Kentucky Derby / Comments Off on Explaining Giacomo

We Have a Derby Winner

And his name is Giacomo. Closing Argument ran second, Afleet Alex was third, followed by Don’t Get Mad and Buzzards Bay. Wilko was sixth. Intriguing that four of the top six were California horses.
Asks Rick Bozich: “Jack Who won the Derby?” Exactly.
The last mention I made of Giacomo was on May 1:

Workouts: Giacomo (remember Giacomo?) breezed six furlongs in 1:11.8 on Sunday at Hollywood Park.

And I then forgot all about him, as did almost everyone else, which is why he was sent off at 50-1 in yesterday’s race. What a surprise finish — you’ve got to be happy for jockey Mike Smith and trainer John Shirreffs, though.
The New York Post’s Ray Kerrison captures the outrage of horseplayers everywhere:

This Derby was not a true bill. Far from being a genuine test of the three-year-old crop, it degenerated into the equine equivalent of a barroom brawl, specifically designed that way by the connections of Spanish Chestnut, so that the last horse standing would be crowned and blanketed with roses.

That’s exactly what happened, except the plans misfired. The last one standing was not Bandini — hell, he was the first horse beaten — but a Californian slowpoke who has never run a fast race in his life. What he did have, however, was some stamina and staying power and that was enough to waltz off with the biggest horse race in America.

To the winner goes the spoils and no one would deny Giacomo his day in the sun. But one thing is for sure: there will be no Triple Crown winner this year.

The Boston Herald reports today that a $1.7 million Derby superfecta ticket was sold at Suffolk.
A record-setting $103,325,518 was bet on the Derby.
I’m going to suggest you visit Left at the Gate for more post-Derby news; Alan has a good collection of links up this morning. I’m out of here again today to look at apartments. If anyone has a lead on a 1+/2 bedroom place in Cambridge/Somerville near the red line for $1200-$1500/month including utilities, available May 15/June 1, please send me an email.

Posted in Racing on May 8, 2005 / Tagged Kentucky Derby / Comments Off on We Have a Derby Winner

Derby Picks Are Up

Special guest Ed DeRosa fingers a surprising horse to win, and Alan Mann of Left at the Gate and I debate Bellamy Road’s merits.
—
Picks elsewhere: The Daily Racing Form has extensive analysis with picks from Andrew Beyer, Brad Free, Steven Crist, etc.; Steve Haskin analyzes the Derby at Blood-Horse; and at ESPN, Jay Cronley, Bill Finley, and Ed McNamara tell who they think will win.
Derby news …

Posted in Racing on May 6, 2005 / Tagged Kentucky Derby / Comments Off on Derby Picks Are Up

Post Positions Drawn for Derby

Five of the last 10 Kentucky Derby winners have started from the auxiliary gate, which was the place to be during yesterday’s post position draw. Trainer Nick Zito put likely favorite Bellamy Road in post 16. Trainer Todd Pletcher had first pick, and put third-favorite Bandini in post 15:

“We wanted to be toward the outside … We wanted to stay clear of the inside traffic. Plus, if there’s a scratch you go to 14 and you’re in the same position,” said Pletcher. (Blood-Horse)

Second-favorite Afleet Alex is on the far end of the first gate, in post 12; for those harboring a dislike of trainer Jeff Mullins, there’s a bit of schadenfreude to be had in noting that he had the last draw, and so Buzzards Bay is starting from post 20.

PP	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	BB	ML
1	Sort It Out	Blanc	Baffert	96	50-1
2	Andromeda’s Hero	Bejarano	Zito	94	50-1
3	Sun King	Prado	Zito	104	15-1
4	Noble Causeway	Stevens	Zito	100	12-1
5	Coin Silver	Valenzuela	Pletcher	99	20-1
6	High Limit	Dominguez	Frankel	105	12-1
7	Flower Alley	Chavez	Pletcher	95	20-1
8	Greater Good	McKee	Holthus	95	20-1
9	Greeley’s Galaxy	Desormeaux	Stute	106	15-1
10	Giacomo	Smith	Shirreffs	98	50-1
11	High Fly	Bailey	Zito	102	8-1
12	Afleet Alex	Rose	Ritchey	108	9-2
13	Spanish Chestnut	Bravo	Biancone	94	50-1
14	Wilko	Nakatani	Dollase	98	20-1
15	Bandini	Velazquez	Pletcher	103	6-1
16	Bellamy Road	Castellano	Zito	120	5-2
17	Don’t Get Mad	Baze	Ellis	98	30-1
18	Closing Argument	Velasquez	McLaughlin	98	30-1
19	Going Wild	Valdivia	Lukas	104	50-1
20	Buzzards Bay	Guidry	Mullins	98	20-1

The auxiliary gate winners in recent years are: Monarchos, Fusaichi Pegasus, Charismatic, Grindstone, and Thunder Gulch. All started from post 15 or 16.
More Derby news …

Posted in Racing on May 5, 2005 / Tagged Kentucky Derby / Comments Off on Post Positions Drawn for Derby

← Before After →

← Home