JC / Railbird

Kentucky Derby

Florida Derby

It’s 1-2 for trainer Nick Zito, as High Fly wins the Florida Derby and Noble Causeway runs second. High Fly, the favorite at 6-5, stalked pacesetter B.B. Best, as expected, with Mighty Mecke and Vicarage not too far behind. Moving into the the stretch turn, High Fly zipped to the lead and Noble Causeway moved from fifth to third to second. With a second win at 1 1/8, High Fly proves he’s a legitimate Derby prospect, but there is the nagging question of how he’ll do on May 7 coming off a five-week layoff. Same for Noble Causeway, who showed he can hold his own in stakes company. I was surprised to see B.B. Best hang on for third, as he did in the Fountain of Youth, a race in which he earned a 97 Beyer. That figure was 10 better than his previous best, and 25 better than the race he ran before the FOY, and it didn’t seem possible that he’d come close to repeating his FOY performance. Vicarage, involved in the early pace, faded to sixth; maiden Papi Chullo was never involved, which must have been disappointing to owner Greg Norman, who dubbed his horse “the one to beat.” The one sure conclusion that can be drawn from this race is that whatever’s next for Papi, it’s not the Kentucky Derby.

Posted in Racing on April 2, 2005 / Tagged Kentucky Derby / Comments Off on Florida Derby

Rushaway & Lane’s End

Notes while watching the Rushaway and Lane’s End Stakes on ESPN:
Oh, that’s bad. Commentator Randy Moss just called Proud Accolade “The Shamardal of the Rushaway.” Maybe badly beaten favorite Proud Accolade didn’t like Turfway’s muddy track. Shamardal doesn’t have such a convenient excuse — Sheikh Mohammed’s Great Derby Hope was beaten by 46 lengths in the UAE Derby earlier today.
Rushaway winner Cat Shaker pays 79.80 to win. He’s not a Triple Crown nominee — yet. The word from his euphoric owner is that he’ll put up the $6,000 late nomination fee now.
Gary Stevens says he’ll be riding Spanish Chestnut a little differently in the Lane’s End than he did in the Santa Catalina — “I’ll do more of a Winning Colors ride,” he says, elaborating that he plans to make a move earlier in this race than he did in the colt’s last race. Interesting to see how that works out.
Very even odds. Only Diamond Isle is out there, at 17-1.
Obligatory David Cassidy mention (he’s the owner of Mayan King, who’s won two starts at Aqueduct this winter). Horseracing really needs to bring in some more current celebrities. Let’s get J. Lo. a racehorse.
Spanish Chestnut is at the front, as expected, followed by Flower Alley. Magna Graduate moves up. Texcess not too far behind. Wild Desert trails the field. Into the stretch, big moves: Flower Alley comes up to win and Wild Desert shows up to finish second. Wow. Spanish Chestnut was empty in the final furlongs, which doesn’t surprise. He ran just as he has in his last four starts. Leaps to first at the start, tries to hang on to the lead all through, ends up vulnerable to stalkers and closers. He moved too early. A shame.
Trainer Todd Pletcher says Flower Alley might go to the Arkansas Derby or the Lexington Stakes next. I missed what Jeanine Edwards was just saying — someone is out of the Bluegrass. Spanish Chestnut, perhaps? Or Andromeda’s Hero — where was Andromeda’s Hero? I think the Nick Zito Five is now the Nick Zito Four.

Posted in Racing on March 26, 2005 / Tagged Kentucky Derby / Comments Off on Rushaway & Lane’s End

It’s Not Intuition

It’s “cosmic criteria.” Vic Zast wields a hatpin — oops, sorry, that’s what women use to pick horses — a crystal ball to divine this year’s Kentucky Derby winner. (MSNBC)

Posted in Racing on March 22, 2005 / Tagged Kentucky Derby / Comments Off on It’s Not Intuition

Playing With History

Both Steven Crist and Gary West have hit the Kentucky Derby history books and come up with a couple of angles for sorting out this year’s pretenders from contenders. Crist notes that of the last 12 Derby winners, all started their preps 11-17 weeks before the big race (Daily Racing Form — sub. req.), and West observes that of the last 40 winners, all had experience racing in fields with at least 10 starters before they got to the Derby (Star-Telegram). Put these two factors together, along with the results of recent prep races, and the list of top Derby hopefuls looks like this:

As every handicapper knows, history offers no guarantees. But this list makes awfully interesting reading. There’s no Rockport Harbor, no Afleet Alex, no High Limit — all horses with tremendous potential who have all started their three-year-old campaigns late, have a two-race prep schedule, or haven’t faced crowded fields. As Crist says, “There are plenty of silly ‘rules’ about winning the Derby that are broken from time to time, and not every historical precedent holds up. Still, those that coincide with common sense are probably worth noting.” I’d agree.

Posted in Racing on March 20, 2005 / Tagged Kentucky Derby / Comments Off on Playing With History