JC / Railbird

Kentucky Derby

Better than Post Zero

Less than 24 hours out from the Kentucky Derby draw, and there’s already a change to Saturday’s line-up: Stanford has scratched, also-eligible Frammento is in. Here’s the brief statement from the Churchill Downs press office:

Kentucky Horse Racing Commission stewards were informed Thursday that #11 Stanford would be scratched from Saturday’s Kentucky Derby 141. The defection means #21 Frammento has drawn into the field.

Stanford drew post 11. All the horses after him in the gate will move one over, and Frammento, wearing a #21 saddlecloth (lavender — pretty), will break from post 20 (mercifully bringing an end to the jokes about Far Right breaking from the far right). “That is a lot better than Post Zero!” said trainer Nick Zito.

The historical criteria spreadsheet is now current for the 2015 Derby field.

There’s also a small update to the 2015 Derby prep schedule and results: UAE Derby winner Mubtaahij has been given an estimated Beyer speed figure of 97 for the race. Andrew Beyer describes how that number was determined:

Randy Moss, the NBC commentator and a member of the team that calculates Beyer Speed Figures, argued persuasively that Prince Bishop’s winning figure should be 112.

His reasoning: California Chrome had earned a 113 in the best race of his career, 108 in his second-best effort. In Dubai, he had a difficult trip, parked wide on both turns, and surely didn’t run his best number; 108 would make sense for him. If Prince Bishop got a winning figure of 112 — four points higher than California Chrome — the numbers for the third- and fourth-place finishers would make sense, too. In the U.S. Candy Boy often earned figures around 100; if the winner of the World Cup had a figure of 112, Candy Boy’s would be 99.

Give or take a point or two, the figure of 112 is right for Prince Bishop. And because Mubtaahij was 15 points slower, his winning figure was 97.

Make of that, and Mubtaahij, what you will — there hasn’t been a Kentucky Derby starter coming out of Dubai since 2009 when the 1-2 UAE Derby finishers Regal Ransom and Desert Party ran eighth and 14th. Contenders via Dubai are always a wild card — how will the travel and a mere five weeks between the two races affect the horse? It’s a lot to ask — California Chrome, luxuriating in Newmarket since finishing second in the Dubai World Cup, was just ruled out of an anticipated start in the Lockinge Stakes on May 16.

“He took a long time to get over the trip,” said trainer Rae Guest, who’s hosting California Chrome while he’s in the UK. “It was a long way from California to Dubai, then racing and coming here, it’s a lot for a horse to take in in one go … it would have been a rush to get him ready.”

Mubtaahij appears to be handling the experience. The Dubawi colt went for an three furlong breeze in :37.40 this morning with rider Christophe Soumillon up. “It was a very easy work just to stretch his legs,” said trainer Mike de Kock. “It just gets them breathing a little bit deeper, gets the blood oxygenated, lets them stretch and get the circulation going into the muscles.”

This Kentucky Derby will be Soumillon’s first, and the jockey — excited about his shot on Saturday — has been studying (DRF+):

“I looked at the last 30 Derbies a couple times to see how you win it, but what I learned is there is no sure way,” Soumillon said Wednesday after taking Mubtaahij on a measured tour of the Churchill main track. “You need to be a good judge of pace, but you also need to respect your horse and ride for him. You need to be confident and clever — I saw some favorites that took the lead in the backstretch and stopped late. It’s more easy to lose this race than win it, for sure.”

That last sentence is so true, for handicappers as much as riders.

Links: It’s perfect for Kentucky Derby parties! Get the Hello Race Fans cheat sheet. How many strikes does your Derby pick have? Jon White is back with his system for 2015. If you like Materiality, forget Apollo. “With most stats of this sort, the curse is not on the horses.” Apparently this happened:

#KyDerby analysts @JohnnyGWeir and @taralipinski give @JustinZayat extra tail hair for A. Pharoah. pic.twitter.com/p8ROnTo0KB

— JonathanPalmer (@JonathanPalmer) April 30, 2015

Posted in Racing on April 30, 2015 / Tagged California Chrome, Christophe Soumillon, Derby Contenders, Dubai, Kentucky Derby, Mubtaahij, R360 / Comments Off on Better than Post Zero

Take Heed

Beware fandom while handicapping the Kentucky Derby, writes Jeremy Plonk:

The want vs. will discussion will be key in your mental gymnastics between now and the first Saturday in May. There are fans and foes of the Zayats and Ramseys, Todd Pletcher and Bob Baffert, jockeys like Kent Desormeaux and Joel Rosario, and of east vs. west, Davids vs. Goliaths and so many more personal stands. But remember: They are personal stands. Don’t mistake them for sound handicapping and wagering.

I’ve been struggling a bit with this — I like Dortmund, and I’m conflicted. He’s trained by a guy who admitted dosing his entire stable with thyroxine (a legal therapeutic drug when appropriately prescribed) during a period when seven horses in his barn dropped dead of sudden cardiac events, and by a sire campaigned by dodgy owners and a trainer who’s since been banned for 10 years. But the horse knows nothing of this — all he’s done so far is win.

Posted in Racing on April 14, 2015 / Tagged Kentucky Derby / Comments Off on Take Heed

Formidable

Bob Ehalt on the power duo of trainer Bob Baffert’s Kentucky Derby string:

American Pharoah and Dortmund, mind you, have done nothing but win this year and between them have 10 wins in 11 career starts.

Once a hurdle as imposing Secretariat is cleared, a historian in search of a duo as formidable as Dortmund and American Pharoah would most likely have to head back to 1948 when trainer Ben Jones sent out Calumet Farm’s entry of Citation and Coaltown, who were dismissed as a 2-5 favored entry.

Citation won the Derby and went on to sweep the Triple Crown. The Hall of Famer retired as the sport’s all-time leading money earner. Coaltown, the other half of the entry, finished second in the Derby and developed into a Horse of the Year and a Hall of Famer.

It’s a heady comparison. Fortunately for bettors, the pair won’t be coupled.

Posted in Racing on April 13, 2015 / Tagged Kentucky Derby / Comments Off on Formidable

Next Stop, Louisville

Well, it’s that time again — another Kentucky Derby prep season has come to an end. Three weeks from now we’ll be pinning our Triple Crown hopes on whichever of the 20 contenders heading to Churchill Downs wins. It’s safe to say, as so many already have, that we’ve found the likely favorite in American Pharoah, who won the Arkansas Derby by eight easy lengths, earning a Beyer speed figure of 105 and a TimeformUS figure of 113. Chills, etc.: “This is how I see Baffert’s hand,” DRF handicapper Mike Watchmaker tweeted, “American Pharoah is kinda like Seattle Slew, Dortmund is kinda reminiscent of Affirmed.”

I think I’ll wait to see these two run in the same race before making any comparisons, historic or otherwise. Somewhat related: We’re looking at two unbeaten contenders in the gate (Dortmund and Materiality), and another three who have won each of their starts this year (American Pharoah, Carpe Diem, and International Star), and nine of the 15 prep races at the 50- and 100-point levels were won by post-time favorites, which is exciting and formful, but could also suggest a lack of competitiveness.

Here’s the complete 2015 Kentucky Derby prep schedule, with charts, replays, speed figures, and the final leaderboard.

12:30 PM Addendum: Mike Watchmaker expands on his tweet re: trainer Bob Baffert’s top pair. American Pharoah is brilliant, but doubted, and:

Dortmund, like Affirmed, has a certain steely toughness about him. Like Affirmed, Dortmund will use any method, whether it be going to the lead or coming from off the pace, to beat you. And like Affirmed, Dortmund has a foil to help demonstrate how good he is. After losing two close decisions to Dortmund, Firing Line went to New Mexico and won the Sunland Derby literally by the length of the stretch. As my friend Ernie Munick noted, what Firing Line did at Sunland was a lot like what Alydar used to do when he got away from Affirmed.

If this crop is as good as it appears to be, we have so much to look forward to.

4/16/15 Update: Frank Angst takes a look at the preponderance of 100-point Kentucky Derby preps won by favorites this year. Smaller foal crops and the resultant shrinking field size may be a factor:

This year’s six 100-point races in the U.S. drew an average field size of 7.83 horses, nearly two fewer starters than just a year ago when an average of 9.7 starters contested each of these races. The 7.83 starters this year is down 32.4% from the 10.37 starters in these races from 2011-2014.

From the archive: What the G1 Derby prep winners paid, 2002-2011. We have to go back to 2006 to find a season as dominated by low-priced winners.

Posted in Racing on April 12, 2015 / Tagged Derby Preps, Kentucky Derby / Comments Off on Next Stop, Louisville