Lists
Shaping Up
Barring any surprises in the Arkansas Derby or Blue Grass Stakes, my list of top 10 Kentucky Derby prospects is pretty much settled (although adjustments are likely over the next three weeks to accommodate changes in status, hoof issues, training problems). I Want Revenge is now #1, moving up from #3, off his stupendous Wood Memorial win, which only grew more impressive watching the replay. Something I failed to notice during the race was that Joe Talamo doesn’t go to the whip at any point — after patiently guiding IWR down the backstretch, saving ground and not hustling to make up for the poor start, then splitting horses to get out of traffic coming into the stretch, Talamo handrides IWR to the wire. Amazing.
Quality Road drops to #2, a move I made before hearing the colt has a quarter crack, which is being treated by Ian McKinlay. Imperial Council drops off completely, while Terrain creeps into #10. We’ll see how the under-the-radar colt, third in the Louisiana Derby, does in the Blue Grass on Saturday.
Top 10 for 4/7/09 PDI: 1. I Want Revenge 2. Quality Road 3. Pioneerof the Nile 4. Desert Party 5. Old Fashioned 6. Friesan Fire 7. Dunkirk 8. Regal Ransom 9. Papa Clem 10. Terrain
How about Rachel Alexandra in the Fantasy Stakes? The embodiment of easy:
Calvin Borel starts mugging on the backstretch, but I can’t blame him. She’s just galloping, the other four fillies totally at her mercy, lolling through unhurried fractions to a final time of 1:43.35, finishing more than eight lengths ahead of Afleet Deceit. On to the Kentucky Oaks …
Odds and ends: Old Fashioned worked five furlongs in 1:00.6 at Oaklawn on Monday. Trainer Larry Jones was pleased with how the colt went around the turn. “That was the big thing.” I’m nonchalantly ignoring Musket Man for now, even though he’s definitely heading to the Kentucky Derby after winning the Illinois. And The Pamplemousse is out, for at least six months, possibly longer. “Our goal is the Pacific Classic [at Del Mar] next year.”
Top 10 Shuffle
Kentucky Oaks-bound Rachel Alexandra drops off my PDI Derby top 10, while Quality Road zips from #7 to #1 on the strength of his Florida Derby win. It wasn’t that long ago I would have dismissed Quality Road for the five-week layoff between his final prep and the Kentucky Derby and for being too lightly raced, but Big Brown and Barbaro have nullified those concerns, and the Jimmy Jerkens-trained colt does meet what I’ve come to consider the minimum-required historical criteria: He started as a 2-year-old, has made three starts as a 3-year-old, and has raced around two turns and in fields of more than 10 starters.
Dunkirk, an impressive second to Quality Road, moves from #8 to #7, a slight bump that reflects my dislike for how he’s being prepped, tempering my enthusiasm for his potential Derby ability. That he’s on the earnings bubble with $150,000 and may miss the Derby is a shame, but then, trainer Todd Pletcher shouldn’t have treated the Florida Derby as a Win and You’re In race for his talented gray. A little jiggering of the schedule could have had Dunkirk start in two graded stakes before May.*
I dropped Friesan Fire to #6 from #2 (and it’s possible he’ll fall further after the Santa Anita Derby and Wood) since trainer Larry Jones’ plan to train the colt up to the Derby seems a little out there the further away we get from the Louisiana Derby — I’m ready to concede a five week layoff is no longer a problem, but seven weeks off seems still too much.
Desert Party drops one spot, to #4, after finishing second to Regal Ransom, who reappears at #8, in the UAE Derby. I didn’t reverse the two, for reasons similar to Steve Haskin’s assessment:
If Desert Party had run the exact same race in one of the final preps in America, I would consider it a solid effort that should set him up for a peak performance on May 2…. Desert Party was the only non-speed horse to make up any ground late, and he finished 15 lengths ahead of the third horse …
Regal Ransom and Desert Party will ship to Churchill Downs early in April. Godolphin racing manager Simon Crisford said a decision would be made closer to the Derby as to whether both will start or whether one will be held back and pointed to the Preakness.
Top 10 for 3/31/09: 1. Quality Road 2. Pioneerof the Nile 3. I Want Revenge 4. Desert Party 5. Old Fashioned 6. Friesan Fire 7. Dunkirk 8. Regal Ransom 9. Imperial Council 10. Papa Clem
*The annual graded earnings debate flares anew, this year with a twist in Mafaaz scoring a guaranteed spot as the winner of the Kempton Kentucky Derby Challenge. “And so it has come to this,” Gary West fulminates,
The horse who won an insignificant stakes on an artificial surface at a minor racetrack in England has a reserved spot in the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby, and the horse who ran second in the Florida Derby may not even get a chance to race for the world’s most famous roses.
While I don’t agree with West that Mafaaz taking up a spot is a problem, I’m with him and almost every other observer in believing that using graded earnings to allocate precious Derby stalls is a flawed method. Dunkirk isn’t going to be squeezed out by a stunt winner, but by colts such as Square Eddie (#2 on the earning list with one start in 2009), West Side Bernie (#12 and showing no progression this year), or possibly Charitable Man (tied at #21 with Dunkirk and making his first and only pre-Derby start in the Blue Grass Stakes). A points system, such as the one Mike Watchmaker proposes in his latest DRF+ column (similar to Handride’s scheme), would not only have the benefit of weeding out the pretenders who racked up stakes monies as 2-year-olds or in winning minor stakes with inflated purses, but would discourage connections from making the sort of all-in gamble that Pletcher did with Dunkirk. It would give trainers reason to prep their charges through a series of races, making the Kentucky Derby more sporting all around.
Notes for 2009-03-24
– Albertus Maximus, likely Dubai World Cup favorite, looked “awesome” galloping on Monday, said assistant Trish McLaughlin. But Pat Cummings, in Dubai for the races and blogging at Dubai Race Night, reports the 5-year-old BC Dirt Mile winner looked “noticeably washy.” The pictures back him up. [3/25/09 Update: Albertus Maximus appeared improved on Tuesday, and Cummings writes, that despite the horse’s general sogginess, “I can’t knock what I’ve actually seen of the favorite.”
– No change to my top 10 Derby prospects in this week’s PDI. Rachel Alexandra remains #1 for at least one more week. Late Triple Crown nominations are being accepted through Saturday, and trainer Hal Wiggins said over the weekend that, “the door is still open.” The next start for the filly, whether she points to the Oaks or the Derby, is the April 5 Fantasy Stakes.
– Remembering Lil E. Tee, euthanized on March 18 at age 20: Claire Novak talks to Pat Day about his first Kentucky Derby winner; John at Not Always to the Swift recounts a visit between Pennsylvania-breds.
Shake Up
Rachel Alexandra hasn’t previously appeared in my top 10 Kentucky Derby prospects list, but she’s now #1 after winning the Fair Grounds Oaks yesterday with style and ease and in a final time of 1:43.55, barely 1/10 of a second slower than Friesan Fire finished the Louisiana Derby. Surely, she could have met or exceeded that time with little effort, if Calvin Borel had kept to the task instead of showboating through the final sixteenth, gearing the filly down and throwing back exaggerated glances at the trailing competition.
Before Saturday, trainer Hal Wiggins allowed there was a possibility Rachel Alexandra could be a late Triple Crown nominee. As of this morning, though, her connections seem set on their original plan of going to the Kentucky Oaks. “We have too good a filly to risk her future in a 20-horse field of brutal, man, macho colts,” said co-owner Dolphus Morrison (Courier-Journal). Oh, man. I’ll let that quote speak for itself, and hope Morrison et al reconsiders.
Following his facile victory in the Louisiana Derby, Friesan Fire moves from #3 to #2, ahead of Desert Party, while Old Fashioned, formerly #1, sinks to #6. In his New York Times wrap-up today, Joe Drape offers a few excuses for the colt’s second-place finish in the Rebel Stakes:
[The crowd] watched Old Fashioned stagger in the stretch after contesting wickedly fast fractions. He chased Silver City through a rapid half mile in 46.07 and three quarters of a mile in 1.11.67.
Maybe. I’ll wait to see how he does in the Arkansas Derby, but the Rebel reminded me of how Old Fashioned tired in the stretch of the Southwest, which was then marked up to it being his first start of 2009.
The list for 3/17/09 PDI: 1. Rachel Alexandra 2. Friesan Fire 3. Desert Party 4. Pioneerof the Nile 5. I Want Revenge 6. Old Fashioned 7. Quality Road 8. Dunkirk 9. Imperial Council 10. Papa Clem
Hot Derby prospects weren’t the only horses running on Saturday. At Santa Anita, Life Is Sweet won her third straight stakes this year and her first G1 when she scored the Santa Margarita with a determined stretch run:
Not that the rest of the field didn’t know Life Is Sweet was coming: “They were all looking back at me,” said jockey Garrett Gomez. “I was laughing at the three-eighths pole” (ESPN). Impossible to tell he’s doing that in the video, but I can believe it, because the way the filly rolled up on the outside, tough and graceful, looked like a fun ride.
Life is Sweet is a great example of a late-blooming horse, and her handling has been of the patient sort we don’t seem to see much of these days. Although she won her first race as a 2-year-old in her second start at Belmont back in October 2007, Life Is Sweet struggled through her 3-year-old season to do better than second, running against fillies like Proud Spell and Little Belle in races such as the Ashland and Sands Point Stakes. Since returning this January, she’s emerged as trainer John Shirreff’s other distaff star, second only to Zenyatta. Asked if the 4-year-old filly might meet her champion stablemate on the track sometime this year, owner Martin Wygod replied, “Who knows?” Racing fans can wish.
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Jessica Chapel writes and edits in Massachusetts. Railbird is a Thoroughbred horse racing blog published from June 2004 to July 2019. More / Contact
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