JC / Railbird - Morning Line

Ready, Set, Handicap

Post positions for the 2009 Kentucky Derby:

PP	Horse	Jockey	ML
1	West Side Bernie	Stewart Elliott	30-1
2	Musket Man	Eibar Coa	20-1
3	Mr. Hot Stuff	John Velazquez	30-1
4	Advice	Rene Douglas	30-1
5	Hold Me Back	Kent Desormeaux	15-1
6	Friesan Fire	Gabriel Saez	5-1
7	Papa Clem	Rafael Bejarano	20-1
8	Mine That Bird	Calvin Borel	50-1
9	Join in the Dance	Chris DeCarlo	50-1
10	Regal Ransom	Alan Garcia	30-1
11	Chocolate Candy	Mike Smith	20-1
12	General Quarters	Julien Leparoux	20-1
13	I Want Revenge	Joe Talamo	3-1
14	Atomic Rain	Joe Bravo	50-1
15	Dunkirk	Edgar Prado	4-1
16	Pioneerof the Nile	Garrett Gomez	4-1
17	Summer Bird	Chris Rosier	50-1
18	Nowhere to Hide	Shaun Bridgmohan	50-1
19	Desert Party	Ramon Dominguez	15-1
20	Flying Private	Robby Albarado	50-1

Early impressions of the draw: All the trainers claim to be pleased, and I can see why — no one appears to be compromised by stall assignment. As for the morning line, I have no serious complaint, although 4-1 on Dunkirk seems a tad low — really, isn’t he more of an 8-1 shot? — and 30-1 on Regal Ransom a little high. Several horses, such as Atomic Rain and Nowhere to Hide, will almost certainly go to post higher than 50-1. (The Crist Blog line puts those two at 80-1 and 60-1 respectively.) I’m feeling a little cavalier, so I’m going to agree with Alan that I Want Revenge is an easy play against, especially if he’s anywhere near 3-1 at post. As impressive as he was in the Wood (and that was an extremely good performance), the New York-prepped contingent looks the weakest, with the spring’s key races all taking place points south and west. Before I commit myself to any (more) premature stands, though, I should probably take a look at the past performances — free from DRF and BRIS.

Posted in Racing on April 29, 2009 / Tagged Kentucky Derby, Morning Line, Post Positions