JC / Railbird

Oaks Prospects

Saturday Notes

Azeri’s second foal, a 3-year-old filly by Giant’s Causeway named Arienza, is readying for her debut at Oaklawn. “We are starting to raise our sights a little higher, but then again, you remember she hasn’t won anything yet.”

The Timely Writer is back on the table for Dialed In. “I’m not happy with the distance of the race since they changed it to a mile from a mile and one eighth…. But at the moment we don’t have that many options.”

Handicapping the Fountain of Youth: “You try to beat To Honor And Serve, and I’ll try to beat Soldat.” In the Davona Dale, try to beat Dancinginherdreams.

Posted in Racing on February 26, 2011 / Tagged Arienza, Azeri, Dancinginherdreams, Derby Preps, Derby Prospects, Dialed In, Gulfstream Park, Oaklawn Park, Oaks Prospects, Soldat, To Honor and Serve

Weekend Figures

The Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks prep schedules have been updated with weekend results. Beyer speed figures of 102 for The Factor and 100 for runner-up Sway Away in the San Vicente at Santa Anita yesterday; 94 for Mucho Macho Man in the Risen Star at the Fair Grounds on Saturday; 83 for Kathmanblu in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes at the same distance over the same track; 95 for It’s Tricky in the Busher Stakes at Aqueduct on Saturday; 89 for Archarcharch in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn on Monday.

Posted in Racing on February 21, 2011 / Tagged Derby Preps, Derby Prospects, It's tricky, Oaks Preps, Oaks Prospects, The Factor

Thursday Notes

You’ve probably heard? Zenyatta will be bred to Bernardini. If you’re into nicks, it’s a match that gets an A++ or a B+, depending on methodology. And while the most anticipated foal of the 21st century hasn’t even been conceived yet (that’ll probably happen in February, if all goes as planned), it’s apparently not too early to think of names. (Bernyatta? Zendini?) I don’t know enough about breeding to call the mating conservative or not, but from a handicapping perspective, it’s an intriguing mix of flash and substance, class and speed. Bernardini’s first-crop runners were precocious and versatile juveniles; Zenyatta was sound through a three-year career and never faltered on track.

Early Kentucky Derby favorite Uncle Mo is listed as the 128-pound highweight on the 2010 Experimental Free Handicap, announced today by the Jockey Club. That’s the highest assignment since Favorite Trick was weighted 128 in 1997.

Boys at Tosconova will miss the Holy Bull at Gulfstream on Sunday. The Rick Dutrow trainee hasn’t seemed himself since a work on January 13. Santiva will also pass on the Holy Bull. The Kentucky Jockey Cup winner, just getting back into training, could make his first start of the year in the Fountain of Youth.

Recovered from the hind ankle injury that knocked him out of Saratoga and a fall campaign, Sovereign Default returns on Saturday at Gulfstream in race five, a seven-furlong allowance for 3-year-olds over the main track that drew seven starters. The colt attracted attention after winning his well-bet debut by two lengths at Belmont Park last July 15, a maiden race that yielded two next out winners in Stay Thirsty (who followed his maiden win with a second to Boys at Tosconova in the Hopeful) and Air Support (who won the Pilgrim Stakes).

I suppose this story’s good news is that 84 past-posters weren’t able to cash.

4:30 PM Addendum: Entries are now up for Sunday’s Holy Bull and Forward Gal Stakes. As often in recent years, the potential Oaks fillies look like a more interesting bunch, with Pocahontas Stakes winner Dancinginherdreams and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies runner-up R Heat Lightning, both making their first starts since November, topping the seven-horse Forward Gal field. The Holy Bull drew nine, including Dialed In, Mucho Macho Man, and Major Gain.

Posted in Racing on January 27, 2011 / Tagged Bernardini, Boys at Tosconova, Breeding, Derby Prospects, Experimental Free Handicap, Gulfstream Park, Holy Bull Stakes, Oaks Prospects, Santiva, Sovereign Default, Uncle Mo, Zenyatta

Classy Kat

A Beyer speed figure of 90 for Kathmanblu, winner of the one-mile Sweetest Chant over the Gulfstream grass on Saturday (replay). “It may be sacrilege to say,” tweeted @BH_MaidenWatch minutes after the race, “but Kathmanblu is starting to remind me of a former Maiden Watch horse named Rachel.” I’m not quite ready to commit myself like that, but the 3-year-old filly did deliver a classy, controlled performance in her first start of the year, neatly gaining ground and picking off rivals in the stretch, finishing 1 1/4 lengths ahead of Excited in 1:39.14 as the 1-2 favorite on a turf course labeled good.

“[Jockey Julien Leparoux] said she was struggling with the turf, but she’s just that good,” said trainer Kenny McPeek. “I was never really worried,” said the rider. “Good horses run on everything and she’s clearly one of them.”

McPeek now faces the challenge of mapping Kathmanblu’s best route to the Kentucky Oaks. “I hate to disappoint Gulfstream but the only two-turn stakes they have for her is the Oaks in April and I don’t want to wait that long,” the trainer told Mike Welsch, indicating that a two-dirt race in February (possibly the Rachel Alexandra Stakes at the Fair Grounds) would most likely be the versatile filly’s next start, and that either the Gulfstream Oaks or the April 9 Ashland Stakes at Keeneland would be her final Oaks prep.

For the watch list: Check out Hout Bay, an impressive debut winner at Santa Anita on Saturday for trainer John Sadler. After breaking slowly and settling into a run at the rear, the 3-year-old Harlan’s Holiday filly flashed some late speed in the stretch, rallying to win race nine by 1 1/2 lengths … I’ve been following Madcap Escapade’s 2008 colt by AP Indy since he first popped up in training for Todd Pletcher at Belmont last July. After several weeks in which he didn’t appear in work reports, the half-sibling to stakes winner Mi Sueno turned up at Palm Meadows in November, where he’s been working steadily since, most recently over turf. And now he has a name — California. Could a start be near? … The 7-year-old Euroears looked like a different horse in his first start for trainer Bob Baffert, winning the six-furlong Palos Verdes in 1:07.23. Asked after the race if he had bet the horse, who hadn’t won since late 2009, Baffert replied, “When I saw he was 9-1, I had to take a shot.”

1/24/11 Addendum: Lecomte Stakes winner Wilkinson may wait for the Louisiana Derby, rather than start in the Risen Star, said trainer Neil Howard. Wilkinson was given a Beyer speed figure of 77 for the Lecomte — he’ll have to do better next out to be taken seriously as a Kentucky Derby contender.

Posted in Racing on January 23, 2011 / Tagged California, California (Horse), Euroears, Gulfstream Park, Hout Bay, Kathmanblu, Oaks Prospects, Santa Anita