JC / Railbird - Post Positions

Ready, Set, Handicap

Post positions for the 2009 Kentucky Derby:

PP	Horse	Jockey	ML
1	West Side Bernie	Stewart Elliott	30-1
2	Musket Man	Eibar Coa	20-1
3	Mr. Hot Stuff	John Velazquez	30-1
4	Advice	Rene Douglas	30-1
5	Hold Me Back	Kent Desormeaux	15-1
6	Friesan Fire	Gabriel Saez	5-1
7	Papa Clem	Rafael Bejarano	20-1
8	Mine That Bird	Calvin Borel	50-1
9	Join in the Dance	Chris DeCarlo	50-1
10	Regal Ransom	Alan Garcia	30-1
11	Chocolate Candy	Mike Smith	20-1
12	General Quarters	Julien Leparoux	20-1
13	I Want Revenge	Joe Talamo	3-1
14	Atomic Rain	Joe Bravo	50-1
15	Dunkirk	Edgar Prado	4-1
16	Pioneerof the Nile	Garrett Gomez	4-1
17	Summer Bird	Chris Rosier	50-1
18	Nowhere to Hide	Shaun Bridgmohan	50-1
19	Desert Party	Ramon Dominguez	15-1
20	Flying Private	Robby Albarado	50-1

Early impressions of the draw: All the trainers claim to be pleased, and I can see why — no one appears to be compromised by stall assignment. As for the morning line, I have no serious complaint, although 4-1 on Dunkirk seems a tad low — really, isn’t he more of an 8-1 shot? — and 30-1 on Regal Ransom a little high. Several horses, such as Atomic Rain and Nowhere to Hide, will almost certainly go to post higher than 50-1. (The Crist Blog line puts those two at 80-1 and 60-1 respectively.) I’m feeling a little cavalier, so I’m going to agree with Alan that I Want Revenge is an easy play against, especially if he’s anywhere near 3-1 at post. As impressive as he was in the Wood (and that was an extremely good performance), the New York-prepped contingent looks the weakest, with the spring’s key races all taking place points south and west. Before I commit myself to any (more) premature stands, though, I should probably take a look at the past performances — free from DRF and BRIS.

Posted in Racing on April 29, 2009 / Tagged Kentucky Derby, Morning Line, Post Positions

Almost There

I’m resolved to avoid over-handicapping the Derby this year (unlike every other year), so it was in a blithe spirit that I composed my final top 10 list, rearranged after Quality Road defected to reflect the horses I consider to have some combination of prepping and talent satisfactory enough to, if not win the roses, then finish in the money. No real surprises; both Desert Party and Regal Ransom move up on the strength of how they’re training at Churchill, Friesan Fire drops a spot due to the layoff. Doubts have crept in already about a couple on the list, though, and I do wonder about who I’ve overlooked, so a re-shuffling of top picks is certain after post positions are drawn Wednesday at noon, followed by a thorough study of the past performances.

Top 10 for 4/27/09 PDI: 1. Pioneerof the Nile 2. Desert Party 3. Regal Ransom 4. I Want Revenge 5. Friesan Fire 6. Papa Clem 7. Dunkirk 8. Musket Man 9. General Quarters 10. Chocolate Candy (really, a tie with West Side Bernie)

The major workouts wrapped up Tuesday, with I Want Revenge breezing four furlongs in :47.20 at Churchill. Said Steve Haskin of the work:

He immediately broke off into his long, flowing stride, cornered beautifully, and cruised down the stretch with Talamo never moving his hands. Despite the ease of the work, he still came home his final eighth in :11 4/5, and again cut the corner sharply galloping out.

The colt is the picture of health and appears, like a number of contenders, to be coming up to the Derby in excellent shape.

Gary West, watching the same horse, had a more prosaic reaction: “It was a good work, no doubt about that, but it wasnâ€™t the kind of move that grabs you by the lapels and says, ‘I’m going to win.'” Which matches up pretty well with Mike Welsch’s assessment: “Nothing, perhaps, that would separate him from the other top contenders in the Derby field, but solid enough to keep him at or near the top of that list.” Nice, then, nothing special, and a reminder to watch the training videos Churchill posts and not get too hung up on any one opinion while handicapping a race like the Derby.

Posted in Racing on April 28, 2009 / Tagged I Want Revenge, Kentucky Derby, Post Positions, Workouts