JC / Railbird

Preakness Stakes

This Again?

OMG:

“They’ve turned the Kentucky Derby into a guessing game,” [Thoro-Graph proprietor Jerry Brown] fumed. “The introduction of synthetic tracks has created mass confusion among handicappers. In the Derby, you’re left to guess whether a horse can handle dirt after running on synthetics.

“This is an absurd situation to create for people who bet the game seriously. It’s tough enough to beat it with good information and rational thinking, but now you have situations where it turns a race into pure guesswork.”

Actually, the synthetic-to-dirt surface switch seems to be one of the more predictable elements in handicapping the Kentucky Derby in recent years.

1:30 PM Addendum: Dean smartly notes on Pull the Pocket that when it comes to assessing surface changes, handicapping principles still apply, but “the questions you have to analyze just might be a little different.”

Posted in Racing on May 19, 2011 / Tagged Handicapping, Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, Speed Figures, Thoro-Graph

Missing Out

Bill Finley on why Kentucky Derby runner-up Nehro, apparently sound and in form, should be running Saturday at Pimlico:

Since 1984, a horse that has started in the Derby has won every Preakness but three…. Fresh horses don’t win the Preakness. Horses coming back two weeks after the Derby do.

With those kinds of odds, passing up a million-dollar purse looks foolish.

Posted in Racing on May 19, 2011 / Tagged Coddled Colts, Nehro, Preakness Stakes, The Way We Train Now, Triple Crown

Maryland Mess

John Scheinman has a full report in the Thoroughbred Times on the apparently imminent end of Maryland racing. Here’s the kicker:

Asked if he believed the Preakness would be run next year, commission chairman Louis Ulman said, “I’d say no.”

That state is exploring all its legal options for saving racing dates and the Preakness Stakes. “That could involve seizing the tracks by eminent domain.”

10:30 AM Update: MTHA general counsel Alan Foreman tells the Blood-Horse: “This needs to be solved in the next 48 hours …”

11:55 AM Update: Tentative agreement reached? That’s what Maryland governor Martin O’Malley’s office is telling reporters. (Confirmed. Details TK.)

12/23/10 Update: As Frank of That’s Amore Stable mentioned in a comment below, a compromise deal was reached on Wednesday. The Preakness has been saved; 146 days of racing have been scheduled for 2011. One aspect of the agreement that should please horseplayers is this — horsemen won’t be compelled to lobby for takeout increases, as MID-Penn was demanding earlier.

More from the Baltimore Sun: “The governor’s deal puts racing on life support for at least a year, but it doesn’t change an obviously poisonous ownership structure for the tracks that imperils racing’s long-term viability.”

Posted in Industry on December 22, 2010 / Tagged Magna, Maryland, Mid-Atlantic Racing, Preakness Stakes, The Brink