Quality Road
It’s Derby Time
But first, a bit about the Oaks (“Just another pretty race“? I prefer not to think so). Post positions for the race, which grew to eight starters, were drawn this morning, with 3-5 morning line favorite Rachel Alexandra landing in stall six, just to the outside of likely second-favorite Justwhistledixie. The rest of field: Tweeter (1), Be Fair (2), Stone Legacy (3), Gabby’s Golden Gal (4), Nan (7), Flying Spur (8).
Rachel Alexandra worked a flying four furlongs in :46.40, the fastest of 26 works at the distance, then galloped out six furlongs in 1:10.60 at Churchill on Monday. “I thought she went too fast, but Calvin swears she does that every time,” said trainer Hal Wiggins, who’d been looking for something more like :48. On an earlier post, Bill, an equine exercise physiologist, remarked that he has a theory explaining the spectacular breeze — “She was properly warmed up for the first time in her life.” I am not an equine exercise physiologist, so really can’t comment, but it does seem plausible that the 30-minute walk she took before working — due, sadly, to a training delay caused by a catastrophic collision — may have had an effect.
Whatever the reason, the work had DRF’s Mike Welsch gushing:
Rachel Alexandra’s final Oaks prep was one of the most eye-catching Derby Week drills witnessed here in recent memory…. The move was reminiscent of, if not even better than, Street Sense’s final Derby prep, right down to the presence of Borel in the saddle…. Rachel Alexandra has been a joy to watch training here all week, and off this work would have been my pick had she taken on the boys in the Derby.
If only she had been nominated to the Triple Crown … instead, she should run away with the Oaks, a prospect that gives me less a case of “Oaks Blues” than “complacent chalk syndrome.” Rachel Alexandra is an exciting sophomore; she’s on the path to 3-year-old filly champion honors. Eventually this year, she’ll meet competition — such as Zenyatta, making her first start of the year on the Oaks undercard in the Lousiville Distaff — that gives her something to do other than cruise down the stretch. It just won’t be in the Oaks.
In Derby news: Two defections, one major, one minor, both sensible. Amid the Twitter discussion regarding trainer Jimmy Jerkens’ decision to pull likely favorite Quality Road from the trail after his second quarter crack trickled blood following a Sunday gallop (“It’s not terribly bad; it’s just not right,” said the disappointed conditioner) Nick Kling pointed me to a column he wrote last year about horses who either never ran again or never returned to their previous form after the Derby. Pulling together data on 78 starters over four years, Kling found a startling percentage essentially ruined by the experience:
A staggering total of 14 came out of the race either never racing again, or starting just a handful of times, unable to regain anything resembling decent form. That is 18 percent of ALL horses who started in the race.
Considering just the horses who had zero, one, or two starts after the Derby, the rate came down to 12.8% — still pretty shocking — strongly suggesting that a Derby start can have a negative effect on an unqualified, under-prepared, or delicate horse, as many observers believe. Not that that’s going to keep a few connections from entering their horses — who realistically have no shot — on Wednesday.
Square Eddie would have been among that group in my handicapping, but the colt developed heat in his previously injured left shin this morning and has been ruled out. “We are extremely disappointed but at the same time extremely grateful that he’s sound,” said trainer Doug O’Neill. It worried me, after reading about Square Eddie’s seemingly rushed convalescence and then the two-week Lexington turnaround, that he’d be pulled up during the race because of a problem. Consider me grateful that he won’t be starting on Saturday.
Odds and ends: So that you don’t miss any Derby coverage, Saratoga Spa has helpfully put together a TV guide for the week. And pay attention to the weather: Rains and thunderstorms are possible through the weekend in the Louisville area. (By the way, did you know that Derby winners on an off track historically pay an average shorter price than those on fast?) New Churchill Downs track announcer Mark Johnson calls Pioneerof the Nile ugly:
I may get told off for this, because I’ve had one or two discussions with people who totally disagree with me, but I think that Pioneerof the Nile has got to be the ugliest horse in the field. It looks like a gawky teenager. It’s got a really thin tail, it looks as though it’s only got half the hair in the tail that it should. It’s got a really long neck and a really small head, and it looks like if it were a human being, it would be a really spotty teenager.
I didn’t notice, watching his Monday work — all I saw was an easy stride and peak form. I did catch, though, General Quarters’ odd gait — his right foreleg appears to have an eggbeater action, which Kerry of Thoroughbred Brief suggested could be because he “looks base narrow and/or toed in.” If ‘Quarters does win the Derby, as Billy Reed says he needs to, that would be another quality he shares with Seabiscuit. Finally, if you’re a New Yorker subscriber, or near a newsstand, check out the profile of trainer Larry Jones in this week’s issue. Also, the notice for a Brooklyn Derby party.
Notes for 2009-04-13
– Few changes to the top 10 this week, with all adjustments in the second tier. Arkansas Derby winner Papa Clem, who’s been bumping around the lower third since February, moves to #6, replacing runner-up Old Fashioned, now off the Derby trail and likely done with racing due to a slab fracture of the knee. General Quarters appears at #8 following his win in the Blue Grass, making him the second to come out of the Tampa Bay Derby and take a stakes. I had trouble coming up with a tenth prospect, narrowing the possibles down to Chocolate Candy, Musket Man, and West Side Bernie, all on the cusp. Although Twitterverse sentiment was 4-to-1 for ‘Candy, I settled on Musket Man, who followed up on his Tampa win with another in last week’s Illinois Derby.
Top 10 for 4/14/09 PDI: 1. I Want Revenge 2. Quality Road 3. Pioneerof the Nile 4. Desert Party 5. Friesan Fire 6. Papa Clem 7. Dunkirk 8. General Quarters 9. Regal Ransom 10. Musket Man
– Chocolate Candy worked yesterday morning with new rider Mike Smith up, going five furlongs handily in :59.20 at Santa Anita. “I was happy with the work, said trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. Of course he was. Trainers are almost never quoted as anything but thrilled with their charges, especially three weeks before the biggest 3-year-old race of the year. The colt does look pretty good in this video of his Sunday move, though.
Dunkirk and Quality Road also worked over the weekend, with Dunkirk breezing four furlongs in :49.06 at Palm Meadows, and Quality Road doing the same in :48 at Belmont Park. He then galloped out five furlongs in 1:01.85 (according to DRF; Belmont clockers credited Quality’ with a five furlong breeze in 1:02.19). NYRA posted a short video of the work, showing the Jimmy Jerkens-trained colt going fine, apparently untroubled by the quarter crack found earlier in the week.
On the distaff side, watch mail brought notice that Music Note, third in her final 2008 start, the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Classic, is back in training. The 4-year-old filly breezed three furlongs in :37.40 at Keeneland on Saturday. No news yet on where she might debut this year. Possibly Belmont, in a race such as the June 13 G1 Ogden Phipps Handicap?
– It might be too early to start speculating on possible Derby pace scenarios, but with Old Fashioned and The Pamplemousse out, who goes to the front? There’s not a lot of early speed among the remaining probables.
– BSFs: 99 101 (upgraded) for Papa Clem, 95 for General Quarters.
Shaping Up
Barring any surprises in the Arkansas Derby or Blue Grass Stakes, my list of top 10 Kentucky Derby prospects is pretty much settled (although adjustments are likely over the next three weeks to accommodate changes in status, hoof issues, training problems). I Want Revenge is now #1, moving up from #3, off his stupendous Wood Memorial win, which only grew more impressive watching the replay. Something I failed to notice during the race was that Joe Talamo doesn’t go to the whip at any point — after patiently guiding IWR down the backstretch, saving ground and not hustling to make up for the poor start, then splitting horses to get out of traffic coming into the stretch, Talamo handrides IWR to the wire. Amazing.
Quality Road drops to #2, a move I made before hearing the colt has a quarter crack, which is being treated by Ian McKinlay. Imperial Council drops off completely, while Terrain creeps into #10. We’ll see how the under-the-radar colt, third in the Louisiana Derby, does in the Blue Grass on Saturday.
Top 10 for 4/7/09 PDI: 1. I Want Revenge 2. Quality Road 3. Pioneerof the Nile 4. Desert Party 5. Old Fashioned 6. Friesan Fire 7. Dunkirk 8. Regal Ransom 9. Papa Clem 10. Terrain
How about Rachel Alexandra in the Fantasy Stakes? The embodiment of easy:
Calvin Borel starts mugging on the backstretch, but I can’t blame him. She’s just galloping, the other four fillies totally at her mercy, lolling through unhurried fractions to a final time of 1:43.35, finishing more than eight lengths ahead of Afleet Deceit. On to the Kentucky Oaks …
Odds and ends: Old Fashioned worked five furlongs in 1:00.6 at Oaklawn on Monday. Trainer Larry Jones was pleased with how the colt went around the turn. “That was the big thing.” I’m nonchalantly ignoring Musket Man for now, even though he’s definitely heading to the Kentucky Derby after winning the Illinois. And The Pamplemousse is out, for at least six months, possibly longer. “Our goal is the Pacific Classic [at Del Mar] next year.”
About
Jessica Chapel writes and edits in Massachusetts. Railbird is a Thoroughbred horse racing blog published from June 2004 to July 2019. More / Contact
Elsewhere
Find Jessica on Pinboard and Instagram, Railbird on LibraryThing and Twitter.
Etc.
Links
Search
Boston Racing
Spreadsheets/Data
← Home
Copyright © 2000-2023 by Jessica Chapel. All rights reserved.