R360
Buck Up
Shying from picking American Pharoah? Dick Jerardi understands (DRF+):
The near Triple Crown misses have collectively psyched us all out. I definitely include myself in that group.
When you see Smarty Jones run maybe the best race of his life and get beat, and you see Big Brown get eased, and you see California Chrome get stepped on at the start, get trapped on the rail and get beat, you would not be human if you did not at least consider the history that also includes Spectacular Bid getting a ridiculous ride, Silver Charm doing everything but win, and Real Quiet winning for all but the final stride.
For sure! But the Belmont Stakes has also been a great race for playing against the favorite in recent years. The last post-time favorite to win was Afleet Alex in 2005, and only short-priced Union Rags (the second favorite to 3-2 Dullahan) in 2012 disturbs the string of double-digits since:
Winning favorites are indicated by a gray background.
For that matter, Curlin in 2007 was the last favorite to finish second.
American Pharoah is 3-5 on the morning line for the Belmont Stakes, which drew a field of eight, and if the public sticks to its Triple Crown wagering ways, it’ll be as “incorrigibly optimistic” as ever about his chances.
Root for history, bet for cashing.
6/5/15 Addendum: More on playing against from Ted McClelland:
If you want to go for an even bigger payoff, spend $84 to box all the challengers in the exacta…. In Triple Crown attempts since 1987, when the exacta was introduced, that strategy would have cost $1,284 and returned $5,119 — a 299 percent return.
6/8/15 Update: American Pharoah’s win added to the chart above. He’s the first favorite to win since Afleet Alex. His win pay is the lowest this century. The betting public looks pretty smart this year.
Spot the Difference
Both Bob Baffert and Linda Rice were breaking horses for their horsemen fathers while in their early teens, and both trainers have been successful at racing’s highest level. Guess which one gets a New York newspaper profile that emphasizes skill and accomplishment in its first paragraph?
For a trainer, there’s no substitute for the knack, and Bob Baffert had it in junior high. It’s called “the third eye,” the uncanny ability to scope out young horses and identify who will be the best runner in the bunch.
Julie Satow for the New York Times:
For an industry in which the ultimate compliment is being “a real horseman,†Linda Rice is an anomaly. Barely topping 5 feet, Ms. Rice has shoulder-length blond hair and sharp features that could make her a Ralph Lauren model. The first female horse trainer to top the standings at a major racetrack, she’s tough and she speaks at a no-nonsense clip.
All That and a Dose of Thyroxine
… “therapeutics” given to horses that don’t need them are abusive.
Let’s put aside Lasix, the subject of Hancock’s phrase above, and talk about thyroxine, the synthetic thyroid hormone supplement trainer Bob Baffert admitted dosing his entire stable with during a period in which seven horses under his watch died suddenly. Trainer Steve Asmussen did the same, a practice that became public knowledge following a PETA expose. Both were cleared of doing anything illegal or improper in investigations that largely dismissed indiscriminate thyroxine use as acceptable, rule-abiding care.
“I haven’t found a barn that uses it on all their horses,†said California equine medical director Dr. Rick Arthur of the Baffert barn regimen, yet: “[The thyroxine] was legally dispensed and reported as labeled. It was within their right to do so. There is no violation of any rules.”
“The KHRC also did not uncover evidence of a rule violation with respect to thyroid hormone supplementation,” determined Kentucky re: Asmussen (PDF).
It’s a measure of how thoroughly the discussion about dispensing therapeutic drugs like carrots has been shut down following both investigations that I feel it’s in bad taste to bring the issue up right now, when Baffert is going for the Triple Crown with American Pharoah in a bit more than a week. I mean, even the Paulick Report — the publication that most aggressively chased the Baffert sudden death story — is running a piece lauding the trainer’s “horse sense” and speculating that he might be “the chosen one” to win racing’s most elusive prize. Ed Zieralski worried that “a lynching party” would pursue Baffert in 2013 if he made it to the Kentucky Derby that year (he didn’t) — he doesn’t have to be concerned about that this year, when even an inquiry about a case of colic in a Baffert Derby contender “wasn’t a question that could be asked,” in the words of Daily Racing Form correspondent Marcus Hersh.
“To me, that’s the hardest part. You have to deal with everybody. This is easy — today with you guys. But when we get up there, everybody is going to want to push the race and all that.”
And all that. I hope it’s all that. I hope some reporter breaches etiquette.
How Much Is too Much?
Scaling back takes attention, but it is doable, said Stevens, who raced in Europe during previous rules tweaks and found a more conservative style. “It didn’t change the outcome of the race,†he said. “I started getting better results.â€
Her well-balanced story gets picked up by The Awl with the headline “What is the Appropriate Level of Violence Against Animals?” and tagged “Beatings – Horses.” Tweets one observer in response, “in horse racing, the answer is anything goes.” Ouch! That’s not the nuanced view of most in racing. Yet, while we can talk about padded crops making more noise than causing pain, when the limits for use — in the wake of a display such as the 30-odd strikes rider Victor Espinoza gave American Pharoah in winning the Kentucky Derby — seems to be welts or it’s no big deal, anything goes will be a common perception among the broader public, which is a problem, because social norms re: animal welfare and use for sport aren’t shifting in the game’s favor.
The Thoroughbred Daily News addressed the issue last week with essays from eight contributors — trainers and jockeys, fans and turf writers — covering just about every angle on the debate (the headline is polarizing; the respondents are thoughtful). Pull the Pocket distilled the essential points, including this one, relevant to Stevens’ quote:
We know best — I’ve heard “let the participants decide what to do, the jocks know best.” I think that opinion matters, but it should be taken with a huge grain of salt. If football players made up the rules, clotheslines and leading with a helmet would be legal and more and more players would be eating through a straw. Participants hate change because it means they have to change the way they have always done things. The culture, as Chris Mac notes in his piece, is very strong and these folks need to be listened to for their experience, but they need to be led, not appeased.
California’s revised whip rules, restricting a jockey to three strikes of the crop before pausing for response, go into effect on July 1. Officially, anything won’t go. What follows will be a test of setting and enforcing limits, for stewards as much as for jockeys. There’s potential for California to be a model.
Caution
Victor Espinoza sums up California Chrome’s 2014 Belmont Stakes effort:
“California Chrome was tired going into the race and his energy wasn’t quite what it was. Also, another horse stepped on his foot and that happens when a horse doesn’t have the energy it should. They do things in slow motion, and that’s what happened.”
The week before, California Chrome was “ready,” had “a perfect work,” was full of “tremendous energy,” and “seemed to have plenty left in the tank.” Pointing those quotes out is a reminder, mostly to myself, not to get too caught up in whatever hype there is about American Pharoah as he preps for the Belmont over the next two weeks. He “looks great,” but he also had to “recuperate” from winning the Preakness by walking for four days at Churchill, and his time exercising each morning is so far being reported in single-digit minutes.
Meanwhile, challengers such as Materiality, who skipped the Preakness, are training like the fresh horses they are. The son of 2005 Belmont Stakes winner Afleet Alex “solidified his status … as the major threat to American Pharoah,” working five furlongs in :59.87 at Belmont Park on Friday (video).
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Jessica Chapel writes and edits in Massachusetts. Railbird is a Thoroughbred horse racing blog published from June 2004 to July 2019. More / Contact
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