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Triple Crown Winners, Mad Men, and Rogues
Eleven horses have won the Triple Crown, and seven of those won in a two decade period that began in 1930 and ended in 1948. It would be another 25 years before Secretariat added his name to the list, with Seattle Slew and Affirmed following in quick succession. It’s been 37 years since the last was crowned, and speculation abounds — as it does every spring that a horse goes to the Belmont Stakes a potential winner — about why the gap has grown so long. Maybe the question is, how did we get three in the 1970s?
Thoroughbred owner and famed ad man Bill Backer is enjoying a turn in the spotlight following the series finale of “Mad Men,” which closed on the iconic 1971 “Hilltop” Coca-Cola commercial. It’s credited to him as the originator, for coming up with the concept, “I’d like to buy the world a Coke and keep it company.” Jingles and horses — fun story, right? It is, and both America’s Best Racing and Thoroughbred Daily News have jumped on the pop culture and racing connection. Both also treat the ad as the epiphanic accomplishment of one white man — and, yes, that descriptor is relevant:
Backer wrote, “I’d Like to Buy the World a Coke†on a napkin and the rest is history.
… the next day Backer … wrote “I’d like to buy the world a Coke and keep it company.” The rest of the lyrics and music followed …
But there’s more to the story, and it’s a great read. “We have a long tradition in the United States of erasing the creative work of black Americans,” writes Tim Carmody of noted McCann-Erickson music director Billy Davis, co-writer of the Coke song. We should do better in horse racing, when given the chance.
Rogues or underdogs? Triple Crown connections tend to fall into one or the other in the media. Last year’s storyline was the latter. This year’s may be the former: “Owner of American Pharoah Is Fighting Lawsuit Amid Triple Crown Bid,” is the New York Times headline, “American Pharoah owner didn’t pay $1.6M in sports bets, felon says,” at NJ.com. The best detail in either report is that Ahmed Zayat allegedly offered $1 million to his felon-friend if he would tell the sportsbook to which he owed money that he died in a car accident.
American Pharoah is back on track. He jogged this morning at Churchill Downs after four days of walking, and may start galloping again on Friday.
Withholding rules on winning wagers are outdated and need to be changed, and the industry has a shot at making that happen this year, but more horseplayers have to get involved. While approximately 3,000 4,000 have submitted comments through the NTRA website regarding the proposed rules revision, “Treasury officials have recently told the organization that more comments are needed if the changes are to be seriously considered,” reports Matt Hegarty. I am of two minds re: this angle on seeking engagement — the first is that horseplayers should show their support for the changes, the second is that this sounds like a set-up for putting the blame on players should the campaign fail. “Look,” racing executives will shrug, “gamblers don’t care about taxes,” making it that much harder for future reforms to pass.
5/27/15 Update: With industry cooperation over the past week, more than 9,500 comments have been submitted to the Treasury department.
Preakness 2015 Wrap
Sealed, opened, soaked: The condition of the Pimlico track surface became the X factor in the Preakness Stakes when a torrential downpour turned the dirt to mud minutes before post time on Saturday. If anything, the rain was a boon to the 4-5 favorite, already a winner on a wet track. But nothing can be taken for granted in a Triple Crown race: “I took a chance and sent him as quick as I can,” said rider Victor Espinoza, explaining how he hustled American Pharoah from stall #1 and into the lead from the start, outmaneuvering jockey Martin Garcia and stablemate Dortmund, in stall #2, at the break.
American Pharoah won the 1 3/16-mile race by seven lengths in a final time of 1:58.46, “the slowest for the Preakness since 1956, when Fabius was the winner over Needles and No Regrets on a fast track in 1:58 2/5.” Here are the individual fractions from the Daily Racing Form chart:
The winner’s split for the mile was :26.32, and for the final 3/16ths, :20.72 (both those numbers from the official Equibase PDF chart). So, American Pharoah slowed down at the end after a quick opening quarter, and I’m inclined not to read too much into what’s 1) a typical race shape for dirt routes, 2) a pretty good example of what we mean when we talk about tactical speed (see, not only the break, but the way American Pharoah draws away from the others rounding into the stretch), and 3) a finish without challenge (Dortmund checked out, Mr. Z tired out, and Firing Line never fired) over slop.
Jay Privman reports that American Pharoah earned a Beyer speed figure of 102. TimeformUS’ figuremaker gave him 125. He was awarded figures of 105 and 127, respectively, for winning the Kentucky Derby.
“I’ve never won this race as easily and handily,” said trainer Bob Baffert after. The ease does seem almost supernatural, or maybe that’s just the rain:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SxXQASkvBjI
American Pharoah’s Preakness win was the sixth for Baffert; his Belmont Stakes start will be the trainer’s fourth shot at a Triple Crown, the third for Espinoza.
“It’s hard for me to imagine I’m going through this again,” the trainer told the NYRA press office on Sunday morning, and quipped that he’d like a fast track at Belmont. “Like the one Secretariat had. I’ll take that.”
The Belmont Stakes is June 6, and there are currently eight likely contenders, in addition to American Pharoah, including Preakness runner-up Tale of Verve, Peter Pan winner Madefromlucky, and Kentucky Derby runners Frosted, Materiality, Keen Ice, Carpe Diem, Frammento, and Mubtaahij.
British bookies are taking bets — Ladbrokes has Pharoah at even money.
1:15 PM Addendum: American Pharoah was the only horse to gallop back without a mud mask, thanks to his gate-to-wire run, but he was carrying a little extra water weight via Espinoza’s boots.
The Deal
Eric Crawford on how Calumet ended up buying Mr. Z for a Preakness run:
Working as the go-between, Lukas mediated a conversation between Calumet and Zayat. It began on 7 p.m. Tuesday night. By 8 o’clock Wednesday morning it resumed. Lukas not only was working with a couple of wealthy parties, but against the clock. By 10:10 on Wednesday, he had a deal, and then, with the help of some fast work by Justin Zayat, completed the deal in the 20-minute window he needed in order to get Mr. Z entered …
D. Wayne Lukas likes what he’s seeing from the Malibu Moon colt this week: “He is coming into the race beautifully, the same way Oxbow did.†(Oxbow derailed Orb’s Triple Crown chase with an upset in the 2013 Preakness.) If Mr. Z wins, and that’s a longshot, it’s easy to imagine the stunned reaction — he’s won but once in 13 starts. “We think he can be a pace factor in this race,” TimeformUS handicapper Mike Beer writes, echoing the consensus view. “We would be surprised were he to be more than that.” What wouldn’t surprise me is if he finishes third or fourth; he’s been competitive enough to make the trifecta in races previously won by American Pharoah and Dortmund.
The trainer, though, didn’t pull off this caper only for Saturday — he has a plan for Mr. Z that involves running a mile and maybe on the turf.
California Chrome’s next turn on the turf is coming up in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot on June 17; from afar, trainer Art Sherman dreams of having him back. A hint, for fans, that he may return to run at Keeneland: “We’re sure looking at the Breeders’ Cup, hopefully the Classic.” I think that may be the first mention this year of a BC tilt — co-owner Perry Martin earlier sketched out a schedule mostly abroad. But then, who knows? The Chrome team seems disjointed, a state Dick Powell would have liked to see delved into during NBC’s Kentucky Derby coverage:
I was frustrated by the piece done on CALIFORNIA CHROME (Lucky Pulpit)’s ownership problems. They implied that Perry Martin and Steve Coburn are not getting along due to a disagreement on where the horse is going to run but there was not enough depth to the coverage. They interviewed the loquacious Coburn but never asked him any specific questions about when and why did the relationship go wrong. It made Martin, who is anything but loquacious, seem like the villain but he does own 70 percent of California Chrome and, thus, calls the shots.
There was a brief mention of him racing at Royal Ascot next month but they never really got into trainer Art Sherman’s feeling of not having him back at his home base. Plus, no video of him training in Newmarket. They tried to re-visit last year’s feel good story but didn’t develop why the relationship went bad. Considering how long the show is, no real excuse not to answer why it went wrong.
Chrome’s first race back in the US will be the Arlington Million, says Martin.
Everything is hunky-dory in the American Pharoah camp. “AP best he ever been,” owner Ahmed Zayat tweeted at Ed DeRosa when he floated some “anti-American” buzz. “Just ask all … at Pimlico he is A BEAST.” Dave Grening confirms: “Baffert is indeed correct when he says Pharoah floats over the ground. Man, he is an impressive individual.”
But the whip issue has not gone away: “Whether you vilify Victor Espinoza’s Kentucky Derby ride or defend it, this much is clear,” writes Pat Forde, “all eyes in Baltimore will be on the jockey’s right arm, and how many times he brings his riding crop down on the flank of American Pharoah on Saturday …”
Whether he wins the Preakness or not, says Bob Ford, he lost the Triple Crown in the Kentucky Derby:
From a tactical standpoint, Espinoza did what he thought necessary to get American Pharoah home and that is his job. It has also been said by jockeys and trainers that the lighter, softer whips used now often act as more of a metronome than a bludgeon, tapping out the stride and keeping the horse aware of the job at hand.
Unfortunately, Pharoah is not able to corroborate this theory and define whether that final stretch run was accompanied by an excited urging or something more terrifying. He arrived at the finish line spent, even though the Derby was the second-slowest running over a fast track and the third-slowest last two furlongs since 2000. American Pharoah really didn’t have it on Derby Day, but still won …
Jay Hovdey comes down on the side of what he calls the “rational” insider view: With today’s padded crops, whipping is no big deal. That Espinoza was so free with his stick (subscriber only):
… was an issue only because it was the Kentucky Derby, which 16 million people watched on NBC, although I’m guessing not many of them noticed or even pretended to care until the whip count was brought up in Derby postmortems.
The Churchill Downs stewards decided that the rider did nothing wrong, and Espinoza was unapologetic, which made sense because no apology was required. Jockeys are handed the whip and told to go win the race, only now it is in an atmosphere of ever-changing rules governing the use of the stick.
His column does highlight just how subjective it is, assessing whip use, referencing, as others have done, how many times rider Calvin Borel struck Rachel Alexandra in the 2009 Woodward. Quantitatively, the 21 hits Borel gave the filly is closer to the approximately 20 Espinoza gave California Chrome in the 2014 Kentucky Derby. But those wins look nothing alike. Qualitatively, the 2009 Woodward and this year’s Derby do — both riders determined to win, both horses giving their all. Emotion influences perception. It’s enough to make what’s a 50% increase of one over the other seem equal.
Pletcherology
Trainer Todd Pletcher has decided to pass on the Preakness Stakes, declining to enter either of his two Kentucky Derby finishers, or potential contenders who skipped the Derby, and could, presumably, be Preakness ready, such as Stanford. Materiality, sixth at Churchill Downs, will point instead to the Belmont Stakes. “If you come back in two weeks and you turn out to be wrong,” said Pletcher, “not only could you not run well in the Preakness, it could compromise your chances in the Belmont as well.”
That puts the likely Preakness field at seven*, a short number that inspired Brian Zipse to speculate that the trainer is sending a message, a message that it’s time to alter the Triple Crown schedule:
It should be crystal clear to us all that America’s top trainer is making a strong statement that the Triple Crown races are too close to each other on the calendar. Because of this, the Middle Jewel, the Preakness, is the odd race out for the powerful Todd Pletcher stable …
I’m not sure we’ve ever seen such an obvious example of why the timing between races of the Triple Crown should be expanded. Todd Pletcher, America’s most influential trainer, is not running any of his horses in the Preakness — Not Materiality — Not Carpe Diem — Not Competitive Edge — simply because it is too close to the Derby.
Right.
Tom Jicha makes a related point:
It isn’t just the Preakness that gets short changed … the Kentucky Oaks got Alciabides winner Lovely Maria, Louisiana Oaks champion I’m a Chatterbox, Gulfstream Oaks victor Birdatthewire and Santa Anita Oaks winner Stellar Wind. The Black Eyed Susan is getting none of them.
(My opinion re: a schedule change hasn’t much changed since last year.)
The quick return doesn’t scare trainer D. Wayne Lukas, who had Mr. Z, 13th in the Derby, vanned to Pimlico. “He’ll run in the Preakness or he won’t run at all,” Lukas told Alicia Wincze Hughes. There’s just one problem — owner Ahmed Zayat, also the owner of Kentucky Derby winner American Pharoah, doesn’t want him entered. “Can’t stop that man,” he tweeted. “Wow. Mr. Z not running.” Zayat was further “completely unambiguous” when asked if the colt would start on Saturday, reports Marty McGee, saying Mr. Z “does not belong in the race on his merits.” But someone’s signals are crossed: “Oh, he’s running,” said Lukas. The Preakness draw is today, beginning at 5:00 PM ET.
2:45 PM Update: “Lukas was not to be denied.” Calumet has purchased Mr. Z for a Preakness run. “They gave us an offer we could not refuse,” said Zayat.
*6:00 PM Update: The Preakness drew eight. Here’s the field with morning line: 1. American Pharoah (4-5); 2. Dortmund (7-2); 3. Mr Z (20-1); 4. Danzig Moon (15-1); 5. Tale Of Verve (30-1); 6. Bodhisattva (20-1); 7. Divining Rod (12-1); 8. Firing Line (4-1). (Get the Hello Race Fans cheat sheet.)
5/14/15 Addendum: Pletcher, asked about altering the Triple Crown schedule:
“I’m torn on what’s the right thing to do,” Pletcher said last month at Churchill Downs. “I think you lose the historical significance if you [change the schedule]. I think you can argue as the breed has evolved and trainers have evolved, [there should be] more time for the horses between races.
“There’s a far better chance we’ll have a Triple Crown winner if we do that, but will it have an asterisk next to it? I don’t know.”
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Jessica Chapel writes and edits in Massachusetts. Railbird is a Thoroughbred horse racing blog published from June 2004 to July 2019. More / Contact
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