JC / Railbird

R360

Nothing to See Here

Charlie Hayward on “Big Days” at racetracks:

I believe that consolidating stakes too aggressively can have the opposite of the intended effect — actually reducing customer interest and wagering activity on regular and weekend race days throughout the rest of the meet. “Big Days” are exciting for the casual racetrack customer. However, I would suggest that offering consistent weekend race cards combined with a takeout reduction would be a better way to grow the racing business and make our product more competitive with other gambling and entertainment offerings.

Yes. How easy is it to find something else to do when even a holiday weekend card is full of short fields and/or lacks a classy feature? The many factors making super-cards a trend “may have reached critical mass with Saturday’s card at Belmont,” says Mike Watchmaker, running down an afternoon of racing that’s “a little scary” in its lower-level quality. (Sunday isn’t better.)

Posted in Racing on May 22, 2015 / Tagged Belmont Park, Big Days, Business of Racing, R360, Saturday Horses, Stakes Races

Triple Crown Winners, Mad Men, and Rogues

Eleven horses have won the Triple Crown, and seven of those won in a two decade period that began in 1930 and ended in 1948. It would be another 25 years before Secretariat added his name to the list, with Seattle Slew and Affirmed following in quick succession. It’s been 37 years since the last was crowned, and speculation abounds — as it does every spring that a horse goes to the Belmont Stakes a potential winner — about why the gap has grown so long. Maybe the question is, how did we get three in the 1970s?

Thoroughbred owner and famed ad man Bill Backer is enjoying a turn in the spotlight following the series finale of “Mad Men,” which closed on the iconic 1971 “Hilltop” Coca-Cola commercial. It’s credited to him as the originator, for coming up with the concept, “I’d like to buy the world a Coke and keep it company.” Jingles and horses — fun story, right? It is, and both America’s Best Racing and Thoroughbred Daily News have jumped on the pop culture and racing connection. Both also treat the ad as the epiphanic accomplishment of one white man — and, yes, that descriptor is relevant:

Backer wrote, “I’d Like to Buy the World a Coke” on a napkin and the rest is history.

… the next day Backer … wrote “I’d like to buy the world a Coke and keep it company.” The rest of the lyrics and music followed …

But there’s more to the story, and it’s a great read. “We have a long tradition in the United States of erasing the creative work of black Americans,” writes Tim Carmody of noted McCann-Erickson music director Billy Davis, co-writer of the Coke song. We should do better in horse racing, when given the chance.

Rogues or underdogs? Triple Crown connections tend to fall into one or the other in the media. Last year’s storyline was the latter. This year’s may be the former: “Owner of American Pharoah Is Fighting Lawsuit Amid Triple Crown Bid,” is the New York Times headline, “American Pharoah owner didn’t pay $1.6M in sports bets, felon says,” at NJ.com. The best detail in either report is that Ahmed Zayat allegedly offered $1 million to his felon-friend if he would tell the sportsbook to which he owed money that he died in a car accident.

American Pharoah is back on track. He jogged this morning at Churchill Downs after four days of walking, and may start galloping again on Friday.

Withholding rules on winning wagers are outdated and need to be changed, and the industry has a shot at making that happen this year, but more horseplayers have to get involved. While approximately 3,000 4,000 have submitted comments through the NTRA website regarding the proposed rules revision, “Treasury officials have recently told the organization that more comments are needed if the changes are to be seriously considered,” reports Matt Hegarty. I am of two minds re: this angle on seeking engagement — the first is that horseplayers should show their support for the changes, the second is that this sounds like a set-up for putting the blame on players should the campaign fail. “Look,” racing executives will shrug, “gamblers don’t care about taxes,” making it that much harder for future reforms to pass.

5/27/15 Update: With industry cooperation over the past week, more than 9,500 comments have been submitted to the Treasury department.

Posted in Racing on May 21, 2015 / Tagged R360, Triple Crown

Preakness 2015 Wrap

Sealed, opened, soaked: The condition of the Pimlico track surface became the X factor in the Preakness Stakes when a torrential downpour turned the dirt to mud minutes before post time on Saturday. If anything, the rain was a boon to the 4-5 favorite, already a winner on a wet track. But nothing can be taken for granted in a Triple Crown race: “I took a chance and sent him as quick as I can,” said rider Victor Espinoza, explaining how he hustled American Pharoah from stall #1 and into the lead from the start, outmaneuvering jockey Martin Garcia and stablemate Dortmund, in stall #2, at the break.

American Pharoah won the 1 3/16-mile race by seven lengths in a final time of 1:58.46, “the slowest for the Preakness since 1956, when Fabius was the winner over Needles and No Regrets on a fast track in 1:58 2/5.” Here are the individual fractions from the Daily Racing Form chart:

The winner’s split for the mile was :26.32, and for the final 3/16ths, :20.72 (both those numbers from the official Equibase PDF chart). So, American Pharoah slowed down at the end after a quick opening quarter, and I’m inclined not to read too much into what’s 1) a typical race shape for dirt routes, 2) a pretty good example of what we mean when we talk about tactical speed (see, not only the break, but the way American Pharoah draws away from the others rounding into the stretch), and 3) a finish without challenge (Dortmund checked out, Mr. Z tired out, and Firing Line never fired) over slop.

Jay Privman reports that American Pharoah earned a Beyer speed figure of 102. TimeformUS’ figuremaker gave him 125. He was awarded figures of 105 and 127, respectively, for winning the Kentucky Derby.

“I’ve never won this race as easily and handily,” said trainer Bob Baffert after. The ease does seem almost supernatural, or maybe that’s just the rain:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SxXQASkvBjI

American Pharoah’s Preakness win was the sixth for Baffert; his Belmont Stakes start will be the trainer’s fourth shot at a Triple Crown, the third for Espinoza.

“It’s hard for me to imagine I’m going through this again,” the trainer told the NYRA press office on Sunday morning, and quipped that he’d like a fast track at Belmont. “Like the one Secretariat had. I’ll take that.”

The Belmont Stakes is June 6, and there are currently eight likely contenders, in addition to American Pharoah, including Preakness runner-up Tale of Verve, Peter Pan winner Madefromlucky, and Kentucky Derby runners Frosted, Materiality, Keen Ice, Carpe Diem, Frammento, and Mubtaahij.

British bookies are taking bets — Ladbrokes has Pharoah at even money.

1:15 PM Addendum: American Pharoah was the only horse to gallop back without a mud mask, thanks to his gate-to-wire run, but he was carrying a little extra water weight via Espinoza’s boots.

Posted in Racing on May 17, 2015 / Tagged American Pharoah, Belmont Stakes, Preakness Stakes, R360, Speed Figures, Triple Crown